At long last, this is my final installment in my series recapping the American League CBS Sports expert draft from way back on February 11. With the baseball season close at hand, I'm going to try to write some pieces focusing on strategy and tactics for deeper leagues with freeze lists.
I'm going to break these relievers down by team rather than by price.
BALTIMORE: Mike Gonzalez $14, Jim Johnson $2.
Gonzalez isn't getting a lot of love from the touts this spring, but he's the guy getting paid the big bucks so he should close if he's healthy. That, of course, is the biggest if...Gonzalez is perpetually banged up and could miss time due to injury. If he does, Johnson is probably the most logical candidate to step in. His K/IP and other peripherals are uninspiring, but he was their temp closer last year after George Sherrill got traded and will probably fill that role again this year.
BOSTON: Jon Papelbon $23, Dan Bard $3, Hideki Okajima $1.
Paps continues going year-to-year with the Red Sox, signing for about $9.4M this winter and avoiding arbitration. He was the most expensive closer in CBS and is probably one of the safest options there is, but you do wonder if Theo Epstein would trade Paps now while his value his high. It's very unlikely, but then so was Theo's novel swap of Nomar Garciaparra way back in 2004. Bard is the flamethrowing prospect who steps into the set-up role is everything gels or provides a lot of middle relief gas if it doesn't. Okajima struggled in September, but otherwise was his usual reliable self. Guys like Okajima get ignored in 5x5 leagues, but don't be afraid to bid $2 here...a pitcher like Okajima is typically worth more than many of the bottom of the barrel starters who go for more.
NEW YORK: Mariano Rivera $22, Joba Chamberlain $7, Phil Hughes $4, Alfredo Aceves $1.
Rivera keeps on rolling along, earning $27 last year in 5x5 (no mean feat for a closer) at the age of 39. Time at some point will catch up to Mo (right?), but I can't blame anyone for paying him the big bucks until that day actually comes. Joba, Hughes, and Aceves are battling for the 5th starter job in camp, with some reports saying that Aceves has the inside track. His value won't be higher than it was last year as a vulture even if he stays in the pen. Joba is a mess that I'd avoid right now unless you're in a carryover league. Hughes is cheap here regardless of what role he settles in to. I'd keep him in the set up role if I had my way, but the Yanks will probably try to give him another chance to start if they feel he's earned it.
TAMPA BAY: Rafael Soriano $18, J.P. Howell $3.
Based on the K/IP ratio last year and the contract, this price seems low for Soriano. If healthy, he'll earn with the elites if only because of the strikeouts. Howell slides into the set-up role after posting a great season last year as the fill in after Troy Percival went down and Joe Maddon ran through the closer carousel. Like Soriano, he posted over K/IP last season so I trust him at this price in 5x5.
TORONTO: Jason Frasor $11, Kevin Gregg $7, Scott Downs $2.
Before the Joe Nathan injury (see below), this was the most uncertain bullpen in the majors and still feels fairly fungible in early March. There are a number of rumors that seem down on Frasor and up on Gregg, but I haven't seen anything all that substantiated out of any reliable sources. My guess is that the job is Gregg's to lose, but I wouldn't place anything more than a $5-6 bet on any of these guys in a 5x5 league if I had to right now.
CHICAGO: Bobby Jenks $13, Matt Thornton $4, J.J. Putz $1.
With the exception of the Jays pen, Jenks went for the lowest price of any closer in the CBS auction. He strikes many as a serious breakdown candidate, so that's not surprising. However, Jenks' K/IP rate spiked last year and his poorer ERA and WHIP were fueled by a somewhat unlucky BABIP along with a ridiculously high BABIP rate. He's still in town, and I don't see a trade. Thornton and a healthy Putz might very well be better options than Jenks, but at the moment this is a media narrative that I don't buy. Jenks will close, and at this price will probably be a bargain if he hangs on to the job.
CLEVELAND: Kerry Wood $14, Chris Perez $2.
Wood wasn't nearly as bad as his final numbers indicated in 2009. His numbers were skewed by two or three early terrible outings and on the whole he was a solid if not spectacular closer. I like him at this price assuming good health and assuming he stays in the A.L as a closer. Of course, both are issues. Wood has been banged up this spring and the subject of many trade rumors. Perez seems like the logical CIW, and will fetch a little more money in keeper leagues. Tony Sipp is the sleeper in this pen and the guy I'd grab at $1 in deeper leagues as a cheap handcuff for Wood.
DETROIT: Jose Valverde $21.
A year ago at this time, many of the alternatives were exciting to bidders (Ryan Perry! Joel Zumaya! Others I can't remember at the moment!)...or at least exciting enough to go for $1. This year, only Valverde was purchased. He's got the big real-life contract and he's a solid reliever so he's a fairly save investment, though for 5x5 this might be $2-3 too much.
KANSAS CITY: Joakim Soria $22.
Same deal in Kansas City as in Detroit. Last year, people (including me) were falling over themselves over Juan Cruz; this year, everyone passed on the rest of the Royals bullpen. The Mexicutioner is a fairly safe bet, though he's been banged up now and again. My biggest worry with Soria is that the rest of this crummy bullpen won't get the ball to him enough in the 9th to put him up with the big boys when the dust settles on the season.
MINNESOTA: Joe Nathan $22, Jose Mijares $1.
Clearly, this auction took place in mid-February. Nathan's going to try to pitch through this injury, but it seems incredibly unlikely that he's going to pitch this year. That leaves a host of options that Rotoman did an excellent and thorough job of covering over on his blog. I would agree that Jon Rauch is probably the front runner and also think that the situation is fairly fluid. If Nathan's contract is covered by any kind of insurance, a trade for an external option wouldn't surprise me in the least.
LOS ANGELES: Brian Fuentes $16, Fernando Rodney $6, Kevin Jepsen $1.
The experts looked at Fuentes' mediocre peripherals and refused to pay him elite money for the 48 saves he chalked up last year. I would have done the same. However, they then pushed Rodney to $6 based on the premise that if Fuentes fails, Rodney will prevail. I suppose Rodney will get a few opportunities here and there, but I don't like paying $6 for a guy who probably isn't going to close.
OAKLAND: Andrew Bailey $22, Michael Wuertz $2.
Bailey was lights out last year and I wouldn't worry about the low saves total. I think the saves will come this year. Wuertz might not be the logical next-in-line, but he struck out over 100 in relief and should be owned in all formats.
SEATTLE: David Aardsma $19, Shawn Kelley $1, Brandon League $1.
There's a lot of hand-wringing about Aardsma this winter but that didn't suppress his price all that much. Part of that is that there are a lot of options in Seattle but no obvious CIW. League and Mark Lowe are the two most obvious names, but if Aardsma does fail who knows what will happen? Aardsma himself was not the most obvious CIW last year until early April.
TEXAS: Frank Francisco $15, Neftali Feliz $9, Darren Oliver $1, C.J. Wilson $1.
It's starting to look like Wilson's going to land in the rotation and it's possible that Feliz might actually go back to the minors. That seems to make Francisco a far more clear cut choice than he might have been back in February. Like a lot of the closers listed here, health seems to be more of an issue than stuff, but given all the time Francisco missed last year, this price feels about right.
No comments:
Post a Comment