CBS Sports A.L. Results - Starting Pitchers: Part I

Just like I did with the outfielders, I'm breaking this up into two parts due to the sheer length of the piece. There were 72 starting pitchers (or potential starting pitchers) auctioned in CBS...and this doesn't even include pitchers like Joba Chamberlain and Neftali Feliz who I'm leaving in the bullpen for now

THE ELITES
Felix Hernandez $32, C.C. Sabathia $32, Zack Greinke $30.
Felix and Greinke were the #1-2 earners in 5x5 last year, so it's no surprise to see them crack the $30 barrier. Both had banner seasons last year, so some mild regression wouldn't be a surprise. With the defense the M's have assembled behind him, I can see why Felix got the bigger price tag than Greinke, who is always going to be limited on his wins and could go 13-13 this year with a little less luck. Sabathia wasn't in the top three, but he's getting paid because of his consistency and the fact that he may be the best bet to win 20 on the team he's on. The scary thing about CC is that he looked off at times last year. If he's on all year, he's capable of being the best starter in the American League.

THE NEXT TIER
Justin Verlander $26, Jon Lester $25, Josh Beckett $24, Cliff Lee $22, Jake Peavy $22, Javier Vazquez $22.
I was a little surprised to see Verlander in this tier, but there are concerns about him breaking down after the Tigers trotted him out for a ton of innings and pitches last year. The CBS projections had him #1 overall, so this could be a relative bargain if he holds up. Lester struggled at times last year, but was dynamite after a poor April and early May and could also be a bargain at this price. Beckett is more of a consistency play than a stab at greatness. At this price in 5x5, he seems closer to his ceiling than his floor, and his owner has to hope that he doesn't get the Beckett who puts up an ERA in the high 3s. Some are going to argue Lee's a bargain, but he gave up as many hits per inning while in the A.L. as Brian Bannister. Some of that was due to Cleveland's defense, but he was in a pitcher's park while there. I think this price is around what he'll earn this year. Peavy looked great during his ChiSox cuppa joe, but who knows how good he'll be in Chicago in the stronger league away from Petco. I wouldn't put an ace season past him, but a $15 year wouldn't surprise me either. Vazquez moves to Yankee Stadium and the brutal A.L. East. The Ks make him worth at least an $18-19 bid and he should get a lot of win opportunities, but he's been erratic enough in the past that he could bomb just as easily as he impressed in '09.

SECOND STARTERS
Brett Anderson $18, A.J. Burnett $18, Jered Weaver $18, James Shields $16, Scott Baker $15, John Lackey $15.
Anderson's everyone's darling, but $18 is a lot to pay for a sophomore who wasn't dominant last year. Burnett gets paid in 5x5 for the whiffs, but is maddeningly inconsistent and has more seasons that have gone off the rails than stayed on the tracks. Weaver's numbers were better last year, but many of his peripherals were about the same. That means he could put up a 3.6 or a 4.3 ERA without there really being much of a difference in how he actually does. Shields is the guy who could be a bargain here. He struggled a little bit last year, but the dip in his FIP was marginal. I think he bounces back, and even if he doesn't bounce all the way back, I like him better than almost all of the other pitchers in this grouping at this price. Baker's numbers looked worse due to a horrid April after he came off the DL. He could be a little better this year, but even if he plateaus, earnings in the high teens aren't out of the question. Lackey's price is a bit of a surprise, but it could be perception catching up with performance. Outside of his crazy 2007, he's been more of a high teens/low $20s guy. Fifteen dollars is a solid price, but I don't think he's a huge bargain.

THE OTHER #2s
Ben Sheets $14, Matt Garza $13, Scott Kazmir $13, Rich Harden $12, Daisuke Matsuzaka $12, Max Scherzer $12.

In a 12-team league, these guys are all #2s based on price ranking. With the exception of Garza, this is a pretty high ceiling/low floor grouping with a ton of risk. Garza is solid at this price...whether he's a par player or a bargain depends on if he can harness the potential we've seen from him in some starts that makes him look like a true ace. Sheets' risk is almost entirely tied to health. If he tosses up 150 IP he could be a bargain at this price, but will he? Kazmir was terrible last year until a move to the Angels seemingly turned him around...at least until the postseason. I see him bouncing back, but like Lackey he's never been as big an earner as his previous prices would lead you to believe. Harden's been relatively healthy the past couple of years, but not quite as effective as he was in Oakland. The move to Arlington makes some shudder, but I wouldn't put it past Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux to get the most out of Harden. I don't know what to think of Dice-K. He was hurt last year, but he's never really lived up to the big contract the Red Sox gave him. Maybe there will be a lot less pressure with him as the #4 on a deep staff, but the erratic control makes me want to shy away. Scherzer is the most unknown quantity here. I like the high Ks and move to a much better park; I don't like paying over $10 for a pitcher in his first full season as a starter who I think is going to go through some growing pains.

JUST ABOVE AVERAGE (AT LEAST IN COST)
Francisco Liriano $11, Kevin Slowey $11, John Danks $10, Ervin Santana $10, Gavin Floyd $9, David Price $9.

Danks and Floyd are cheaper than the riskier pitchers in the last "tier" and probably better bets, too. Like Garza, Danks could still take another step forward and is at the point in his career when touted pitchers like him do, but even if he "only" does what he's done the last two years is a bargain at $10. Floyd was great last year after a bad stretch early in the season. While his raw stuff isn't overpowering, that bread-and-butter curve is more than enough to keep him pitching like a steady #2. If you get him for $9, you're lucky. Liriano, Slowey and Santana all fit the injured/possible bargain profile. Liriano will go for more than this in some leagues, and maybe he'll be worth it. Like the pitchers in the last tier, he's high ceiling/low floor, and we won't know which pitcher he'll be until the games matter. Slowey's injury was a non-arm injury, and I like him this year. His 4.86 ERA was fueled by a .352 BABIP, and that ERA could drop a full run with any luck even if Slowey just stands still in '10. Santana was not right in the first half, but quietly put it together Post All-Star, with a 3.90 ERA, including a 3.27 in August and a 3.10 ERA in September. I think he'll be fine this year, and is a potential bargain in weaker leagues that don't consider that he was in recovery mode. Price still looked like a work in progress last year...albeit an impressive one. He might take the big leap this year, but keep in mind that young pitchers sometimes take 2-3 years to ultimately hit their stride.

THE "AVERAGE" ONES
Scott Feldman $8, Andy Pettitte $8, Mark Buehrle $7, Tommy Hunter $7, Jeff Niemann $7, Rick Porcello $7, Ryan Rowland-Smith $7.

Based on price, these are pitchers their owners wanted but are rounding out a staff. Feldman is getting pooh-poohed by everyone in the fantasy community, but I think he's real enough that he could earn this or a little more. The improvements he made on his cutter were real and it's enough of a bread-and-butter pitch that he should survive even in Arlington. Pettitte's Yankee career has been filled with OK ERAs, subpar WHIPs and a decent amount of wins. There's no reason not to expect that again this year, even in his Age 38 season. Buehrle looks like the bargain of this group. He's not spectacular (though he was spectacular for one day last year), but has been fooling hitters with his varied assortment for years now. I like getting guys like Buehrle in 5x5, taking the solid peripherals and wins and worrying about getting my Ks somewhere else. I don't know if the wheels will fall off, but the league caught up to Hunter in the second half last year and his OK stuff wasn't fooling anyone. Maybe he'll make the right adjustments, but I wouldn't pay $7 to find out if he will. Niemann threw up a higher K/IP Post All-Star and looked more poised as well in the starts I saw him in. I don't think he'll ever be an ace, but a $13-15 season isn't out of the question. Porcello's someone I worry about. His FIP was 4.77 last year, and while I can't fathom him being that bad, he is a 22-year-old starter without big K numbers. He could be a big bust this year, and I think the price reflects that worry. Rowland-Smith is another pitcher who could struggle based on the peripherals. Safeco will suppress some of his flyball tendencies, but I could easily see a 4.50 ERA by his name when all is said and done.