CBS Expert Analyst NL-Only 5x5 Results - Outfield Part I

The Elite Prices: Ryan Braun ($45), Carlos Gonzalez ($44)

Braun had a “down” year last year, only putting up a 25/103/14/.304.  There is no question that Braun is an elite outfielder, but, as we’ve discussed before, you are building in a loss at this price (that line earned Braun roughly $33 in 5x5 last year).  Gonzalez, on the other hand, did earn his current salary last year.  I understand the splits; I understand the (likely) unsustainable BABIP.  Interestingly, though, Gonzalez did have a BABIP in the .370s and an average in the .280s on the road, even if the OPS did fall off to .775.  There is no reason to believe that Gonzalez will not earn something in the same ballpark, though I am not sure I want to pay $44 to find out (for all of the same caveats as every expensive player).

The Thirties: Matt Holliday ($37), Matt Kemp ($34), Andrew McCutchen ($31), Andre Ethier ($30)

Holliday is nothing other than consistently good.  While the bid is a couple of ticks over what I want to pay in 5x5, this price should bring a pretty similar dollar value of stats.  After last year’s $24 earnings, I would stay far away from Kemp.  He looked disinterested; he played disinterested.  I think his days in L.A. are numbered, and, in light of these factors, he is very difficult to value.  The upside is that his BABIP was ridiculously low (even with a small drop in LD%), and his walk rate stayed about the same.  The other numbers, however, tell me that this bid should be significantly lower.  McCutchen, on the other hand, is at a decent upside price.  There are very few numbers not to like here.  He posted a .449 slugging percentage, stole 33 bases (the ratio could be a little better), and had an excellent 1.3 K/W.  There is no reason not to expect the same or better.  Kemp’s partner in the outfield, Andre Ethier, took a small step backwards as well, though that is related, in part, to injury.  The $22 5x5 earnings make this bid a built-in loss.  You just cannot take too many of these losses and be a successful team.

The High to Mid-Twenties: Justin Upton ($29), Jay Bruce ($29), Jason Heyward ($28), Shane Victorino ($27), Drew Stubbs ($27), Jayson Werth ($26), Hunter Pence ($26), Michael Stanton ($26)

Upside, upside, upside.  We continue to pay for upside.  Certainly, Upton has upside, but based on his numbers last year, including a ridiculously high BABIP coupled with a .270 average due to lack of contact, this is another loss.  Unless Upton can make contact more consistently, he is never going to reach full fantasy potential.  Bruce earned $21 in 5x5 last year.  Again, we are paying for upside.  Given the lack of speed, and given that Bruce is already a pretty high FB/GB hitter with a high HR/FB%, I think it is unlikely that Bruce takes any huge step forward.  Speculation – notice a theme?  Heyward fits this bill as well.  On the flip side, Heyward is also a couple of years younger than Bruce, runs more than Bruce, and only hit 27.2% of his balls in the air last year.  The is room for huge improvement in the power category.  Victorino, on the other hand, earned $26 in 5x5 last year, so this bid (finally) is not out of line.  The rise in strikeouts and the lower OPS may be a cause for concern, but Victorino’s combination of speed and power should keep his earnings in the mid-twenties.  Okay, thank you for that interruption.  Back to speculation.  Stubbs was the last full-time outfielder on the board with the potential to earn in this range, hence the $27 bid.  Given the line drive rate and the lack of extra base power other than the home runs, I find it unlikely that Stubbs will repeat the 22 home runs from last year.  On the flip side, he can flat out run, so the earnings ($27 in 5x5) should not fall off the map, particularly if the batting average improves with better contact.  Werth gets a discount off of his 2010 earnings ($30), but with good reason.  Leaving the friendly confines of CBP and heading to the Nationals’ ballpark and lineup is as good a reason as any to drop the bids.  Bid with caution, and an eye on that home/road split.  Pence also gets a discount off of his 2010 earnings ($29).  The walk rate appears to be the impetus behind the lower OPS, but, otherwise, Pence’s seasons are very consistent.  This is a nice buy with some profit built in to it.  Stanton is speculation as well at this price, but the raw power is overwhelming.  His 116 OPS+ puts him in very limited company.  The question, however, is whether this is sustainable in light of the strikeout rate.  I would feel better if this price were about $5 less, though that will not get him in most leagues.