Alfredo Simon $18. Other bids $15, $14, $10, $9, $7, $7, $7.
Obviously, the bids on the high end are predicated on the idea that Simon's going to be the Orioles closer, but they're still significantly too high. The general assumption at the moment is that Mike Gonzalez is going to be back in three weeks, so even if Simon sticks in the role, you're paying for three weeks of saves. Simon is a 29-year-old reliever who was a prospect way back in 2005 with the Giants who never panned out. He missed most of 2009 following Tommy John, and seems to have come back with much more velocity. Fangraphs has Simon's fastball at an average speed of 95.8 MPH. The drawback is that he doesn't seem to know where the ball is going. This isn't a good formula for continued success, and it wouldn't surprise me to see someone else get some saves in the next 2-3 weeks for the Orioles along with Simon. I'd obviously bid, but I wouldn't use nearly 1/5th of my budget to get him.
John Jaso $8. Other bids $2, $2.
In the short-term at least, Jaso seems to have grabbed the Rays catching job while Kelly Shoppach is on the DL and Dioner Navarro continues to scuffle. Jaso was never considered much of a prospect, but is a decent catch-and-throw guy whose best skill is getting on base. He has very little pop and no base stealing speed, so his best bet is going to be if he plays 5-6 days a week so he can drive in and score some runs in a very strong line-up. He's worth it in one-league leagues only.
Max Ramirez $7. Other bid $7.
Some Roto players and analysts still believe in Ramirez; I'm not among them. The 25-year-old catcher's poor 2009 can be written off mostly due to a wrist injury, but Ramirez is getting to an age where it's hard to see him as a prospect anymore. His numbers at AAA Oklahoma City this year were devoid of any power, and the scouting reports don't grade his defense well. At best, he'll split AB with Matt Treanor, but it looks to me like Treanor's going to get 60-75% of the AB while Jarrod Saltalamacchia works his way back into game shape at AAA.
Wilson Ramos $5. Other bid $3.
It's catcher week at Roto Think Tank. Ramos' stock went up in the short-term with the somewhat cryptic and negative news regarding Joe Mauer's health. Both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America are high on Ramos, while John Sickels gave Ramos a somewhat mixed review in his 2010 book. Right now, I'm with Sickels. Ramos had all of 282 AB at AA or above prior to his promotion and hasn't really done much with the bat yet. He did miss a good chunk of '09 with a hamstring injury, but I'm still not convinced he's going to automatically produce in the majors. He's not a bad pick-up if you're looking long term, but unless the Twins move Mauer out from behind the plate, Ramos is going to need a trade.
Trevor Cahill $3.
I didn't see Cahill's start this weekend against Toronto, so I don't know if he struggled out there or if the Jays red-hot offense was the culprit. Cahill still has plenty of long-term potential, but my guess is that he's shaking off some of the injury rust and is tough to recommend this week against the Rangers.
Mark Melancon $2.
Melancon is a good 4x4 play and a borderline 5x5 one. The Yankee reliever is one of the better products in their system and it's not hard to envision him quickly moving up the pecking order in the Bronx behind Mariano. Melancon keeps striking out a batter an inning and even seemed to tame his lone bugaboo - walks - at AAA thus far this year.
Craig Gentry $2.
At 26, Gentry isn't much of a prospect, but he has a window of opportunity against LHP with Julio Borbon struggling. Like Borbon, Gentry's game is speed; Gentry stole 49 bases (in 55 tries) at AAA last year and isn't a bad guy to grab in a deep A.L.-only league if you need the bags. Keep in mind that Brett Gardner and Raj Davis weren't "much of a prospect" either at one time but wound up playing their way into opportunities at the Major League level.
Brad Kilby $2. Other bid $1.
Kilby has been a serviceable middle reliever when the A's have called upon him, but his interior numbers make him a serious "don't buy candidate" in Roto. He has a 100% LOB rate, a BABIP that should be 13% higher based on his LD%, and is living off of a fastball in the high 80s. His numbers look great, but I'd stay away.
Mitch Talbot $2. Other bid $1.
Speaking of disasters waiting to happen, Talbot is an example of a pitcher who isn't striking anyone out yet putting up a sub-3 ERA. You can chalk some of that up to a tremendous 2.42 G/F rate, but the number that jumps out at me is the unsustainable .211 BABIP. This isn't to say that Talbot is a bum. He probably would have been in the majors 2-3 years ago if he hadn't had the misfortunate to be stuck with the Rays. That being said, Talbot is more of a #4-5 and probably should be putting up a 4.30-4.50 ERA, not a 2.05.
Tony Sipp $1.
Hector Ambriz $1.
I lump the two Indian relievers together because Chris Perez has been solid save for one terrible outing against the Tigers back on April 11 and Kerry Wood will be back at some point. Sipp can be a closer-of-the-future if he can harness his control but hasn't done so thus far this year. Ambriz was a Rule V pick from the Diamondbacks who was flaming out as a starter before the Indians decided to convert him to the pen. He blew away AAA hitters during his rehab assignment and probably has a future as a middle relief/set-up guy. Both are more long-term pick-ups than short-term ones.
Mark Grudzielanek $1.
Luis Valbuena's struggles have resulted in a somewhat informal job share between him and Grudz at the keystone. Grudz isn't hitting either, though, with an empty .237 batting average (no extra base hits) to his credit. Even with 3-4 starts a week, he might not be worth it.
Doug Fister. Claimed by 12th, 5th, 2nd, and 1st place teams.
I wrote about Fister back on April 19. He has continued to shine, mowing down the Rangers yesterday. He's still an obvious regression candidate, though I have to admit that he gets a little more credit from me and could be a serviceable pitcher who puts up a 3.50-4.00 ERA this year. Having that defense behind him certainly helps.
Darren O'Day. Claimed by 10th and 5th place teams.
Last write-up on O'Day: April 12. In retrospect, the saves talk seems like wishcasting. O'Day continues to put up ridiculously good numbers, but he's serving as more of a ROOGY this year than a true middle reliever and isn't striking anyone out. His deceptive delivery allows O'Day a little more leeway when it comes to the whiffs, but a 1.13 K/9 isn't a recipe for success even if you're David Blaine out there.
Ken Griffey Jr. Claimed by 8th place team.
Oh, Ken. Forget about what you're doing to the Mariners. Think about what you're doing to us. We didn't want it to come down to this: seeing you go for $1 at auction and then quickly hitting the waiver wire. It's beginning to look like the end-of-the-line for Griffey. He's done next to nothing this year, and even the loyal Mariners are going to have to consider benching Junior or at least dramatically cutting into his playing time soon.
Randy Winn. Claimed by 7th and 2nd place teams.
Curtis Granderson's injury moves Winn from seldom-used bat off the bench to being on the good side of an OF platoon with Marcus Thames. It's hard to gauge whether any of the pre-2009 power will return, though Winn did steal 16 bags in 18 opportunities last year and at the very least should run. He must be owned now in deep A.L.-only leagues.
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