Monday, May 03, 2010

NL FAAB Log: May 3, 2010

Note: our league added $0 bids this week. Later this week, I will talk about $0 bids and their impact on FAAB, salary caps and overall bid practice.

Jhoulys Chacin $12: Chacin is a B+ prospect who, eventually, may turn in to a middle of the rotation ground ball innings eater. Chacin struggled with wildness at all levels in 2009, an indicator that he may not quite be ready for the majors. His strikeout rate has actually increased in his small major league sample sizes, and he has the stuff to survive the NL West. He is only 22, and if he continues to make hitters pound the ball into the ground, he is going to be very effective. If you need help this year, you are going to compete with the teams looking ahead to next year AND we cannot be sure how long he will stay in the rotation. I think he is a safe bet until the end of May, when both Jeff Francis and Jorge De la Rosa are expected back.

John Maine $11: The team that waived him last week brought him back at significantly more money. I wrote about Maine a bit here, so I won't repeat myself too much. Don't read too much into Maine's performance against the Phils. His fastball velocity is still down and the Phillies were very aggressive in their approach to him. Still, strikeouts in 5x5 are strikeouts. Maine has Cincinnati this week, and, therefore, is a bit of a risky play.

Cole Gillespie $4: Cole is a little old to be a prospect, though Sickles has him listed as a C+ in his Diamondbacks 2010 prospect list. He has a little pop, has a little speed, and plays good defense (which still is not a fantasy category). He'll play a little with the outfield a little dinged up, but likely not enough to warrant a $4 bid.

Chris Heisey $4: Heisey is a speedy player who earned a B from Sickles in his Cincinnati Top 20 prospect list for 2010. He did struggle in his first year at AA and his first year at AAA, particularly with his OBP, and this suggests to me that he will struggle in his first exposure to the majors. On the flip side, at $4, even in a crowded outfield, he will steal a few bags in his current major league stint, and will likely be back for good later in the year. The first place team in our league picked him up for $4, and I think he got a good deal.

Latroy Hawkins $3: The Hawkins pick is no surprise given Hoffman's struggles, though Hawkins struggled mightily last week as well. Since he is a a good K rate pitcher, he is worth owning in deep NL-only leagues where relievers are valued. He may also still pick up a stray save here and there, depending on Hoffman's future performance (though I would still bet on Villanueva as the longer term closer solution).

Rodrigo Lopez $3: Lopez tends to get overlooked because he doesn't really do anything special. If you take a look at his FIPs over the last several years, however, they all range in the low to mid- 4.00s. Not terrible in today's pitching deficient leagues. If he continues to avoid walks, and can keep some of those fly balls in the park, he is a viable NL-only option at this point. His HR/FB rate and BABIP are a little too high, so there is the opportunity for improvement here. Try to play him on matchups outside of Arizona.

Roger Bernadina $2: Bernadina earned a piece of the Nationals' right field platoon pie, though he hasn't played as much as his owners would hope. Bernadina can fly, and if he can get on base, he's going to steal the next bag. This is a good cheap speed play if you can live with the lack of power and inconsistency in getting on base. I anticipate the Nats are going to try and improve this position at some point, but for now, Bernadina should see the majority of ABs there.

Manny Corpas $2: Corpas is maddeningly talented, but has not put everything together. This year, he is quite wild, and his BABIP under .200 is not sustainable. Despite calls for Corpas to close in Street's absence (and he did come in the game yesterday in a non-matchup situation at a key time in the game), I sense a correction coming. If you have a reserve list in your league, he should be on it for monitoring purposes, and if you have Morales, you might want to link Corpas/Morales, but tread carefully.

Arthur Rhodes $1: Rhodes is a back-up closer candidate, and has pitched very well this year. I do not think his BABIP and LD rates are sustainable (.069 and 5.3%, respectively). He should, at the very least, be on your reserve list for monitoring purposes, and is a pretty safe choice for some bullpen help with the high strikeout rate.

Carlos Monasterios $1: Carlos is a 24 year old Venezuelan picked up from the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft. He is a ground ball pitcher with a good sinker, but the jury is out on his secondary pitches. With the number 5 starter role in flux, the Dodgers appear ready to give Monasterios a crack at the job. I think he will struggle with his command, but if he can increase the GB rate, he is worth taking a flier on...he gets Milwaukee on Thursday in LA.

Paul Janish $1: Janish is a defensive replacement type who occasionally shows a hot bat, then disappears with any increased playing times. I can't even tell you he moves the chains and with any substantial ABs, he will hurt your average.

Clay Hensley $1: Hensley is another good cog in a deep Florida bullpen that has to be one of the best, if not the best, in baseball right now. He averages over a strikeout per inning, and in any league where relievers are used (especially in any 5x5 with strikeouts), he is an attractive target. I doubt he will produce any saves, though, as he is still behind a few other relievers.

Matt Downs $1: Downs has some pop off the bench, but as the Giants offense gets healthy once again, the ABs will be very limited. He is worth a flier if you need to fill a dead spot - he likely won't hurt you anywhere, and the occasional home run and stolen base are worth a $1 bid.

Alberto Gonzalez $1: Gonzalez continues to intrigue fantasy owners, but just does not get in the lineup consistently enough to be a contributor. He will see less ABs now with Zimmerman back in the lineup (though for how long we don't know) and with the rest of the middle infield performing well. Nonetheless, Gonzalez is worth looking at given his ability to hit to contact..."move the chains" is the phraseology I am looking for here I think.

Jason Jaramillo $0: Jaramillo is the guy you get when you don't want too many AB from your catcher ... he should not see much time with Doumit ahead of him, and won't kill you in the time he does play.

D.J. Carrasco $0: D.J. is a potential spot starter averaging almost a strikeout per inning right now. I put him in the category of a fungible reliever who will hurt you if he starts.

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