NL FAAB Log: April 26, 2010

Kris Benson $8: Given the struggles of Kris Benson over the past few years (including a very ugly 8.46 last year before his release), I thought this bid was very aggressive. Taking a quick look at his interiors this year (ignoring the 3.00 ERA for a moment), the 4.5 K rate and the 3.00 BB rate, combined with a .318 BABIP, and 80% strand rate and a 16% LD rate suggest to me that Benson is in for a correction. He gets the Rockies on Wednesday afternoon, which could be where this correction starts (though the Rockies offense has been less than stellar).

More puzzling is that the owner who won Benson waived John Maine. While Maine's command has been very poor (leading, in part, to the very high BABIP of .389), his strikeout rate is up. I think Maine is a good guy to stash away on reserve for another start or two and see what happens. I cannot necessarily recommend Maine for his two starts this week (Dodgers and Phillies), but I am not sure that trading Maine for Benson on your roster is going to get you very far. Sometimes, it is better to take a middle reliever for a week if you need to nuke a starter.

Scott Olsen $4. I thought this bid was a bit aggressive as well, but as a Phillies fan, I cannot get over my dislike of Scott Olsen. Olsen was awful last year, and, frankly, has never lived up to his potential. His interiors this year, however, in an admittedly small sample size, suggest a few things to me.

His K rate is back up into the "8.00s." His BB rate is back down to around 3.00. His LOB% is fairly normalized, as his his HR rate. Olsen's BABIP, however, is a very high .359. The line drive rate, however, suggests that Olsen is a little unlucky. Hitters also seem to be fooled by his slider and change-up, swinging at a lot of pitches outside the zone and missing quite a bit as well. I think that Olsen may be a more solid play than I expected; he has the Marlins this weekend, assuming all things hold to form.

Jamie Moyer $2. Moyer's numbers all have him on pace to put up something close to a 5.00 and win 10-12 games. Again. Interestingly, though, his FIP is 4.81, and his xFIP is 3.93, suggesting that there is actually room for improvement based on this small sample size. What you see is what you get with Moyer, and if your staff can risk a little ERA and WHIP for a wins play, he does have that vaunted Phillies offense behind him. This week he likely gets the Giants in San Francisco against Wellmeyer (or another option if the Giants go that way, so this is not a bad wins play.

Xavier Paul $2. I briefly wrote about Paul in my pre-FAAB column. Paul is a decent option with Manny on the shelf, though the Dodgers seem committed to throwing Anderson and Johnson out there on a semi-regular basis. Paul's speed, however, makes him worth a bid in deep NL-only leagues where you need an outfielder.

Luis Atilano $1. The Nationals this year are eerily similar to a fantasy baseball team. Put together a decent but not great offense, churn starting pitchers, get a little lucky, and jump out to a good start. Atilano is no re-tread, but he is nothing to get too excited about either. He is a low strikeout control pitcher who relies heavily on his curve and change; he throws those two pitches almost 50% of the time. If he keeps hitters off-balance and keeps the ball on the ground, he is going to be ok. If the control is just a little off, well, he could be in trouble. The owner who picked up Atilano had Daniel McCutcheon, so I doubt he could do worse. Atilano does get the Cubs in an afternoon game this week...pray the wind isn't blowing out.

Craig Stammen $1. I do not recall the last time that I've written about 3 Nationals pitchers in the same week. I got an opportunity to watch Stammen this week and his stuff seems to be pretty good. His control has also been excellent, and, at this point, I think he should be owned in NL-only leagues. Stammen showed a lot more in the way of strikeouts in the minor leagues, but his walk rate right now is tremendous. Combine that with a poor strand rate and a somewhat high BABIP and line-drive rate (thanks in large part to the batting practice display the Phillies put on), and Stammen should get the benefit of the doubt for now. He appears to be in line for a start against the Marlins.

Doug Davis $1; Felipe Paulino $1. Davis has not been very good this year, but he gets the Padres in Petco this week. Normally, I would say that this is a good matchup, but the way the Padres have been hitting, I would tread carefully. I cannot recommend Paulino in any format right now; his strikeouts are way down, his walks are way up, and his other numbers suggest this is either a regression or an injury.

Blake Hawksworth $1; Ronald Belasario $1; Evan Meek $1; Edward Mujica $1. The march of the $1 relievers continues. Hawksworth is striking out a batter an inning, and while his walk rate is down, is a low-end option. Belisario is fresh off the restricted list. He pitched well last year, averaging almost a strikeout an inning, but he strikes me as a guy who is more fungible than the true "strikeout" middle reliever or set-up man. Meek is the sleeper here. He is having the year so far this year that he would have had minus the walks last year. If he can continue to keep runners off-base via the walk, he is going to be very successful with his stuff and strikeout rate. In fact, he may be the CIW before long. Mujica is in the same mold. He is also (or in my opinion should be) the CIW should Heath Bell get traded. Plus, he is on a hot team that plays half of its games in Petco. In my opinion, in any deep NL league, Meek and Mujica are pitchers that should be owned.

Wes Helms $1; Craig Counsell $1; Jason Michaels $1. If the pitchers above are the march of the $1 relievers, this group should be the "march of the fungible pinch hitters." All three will hit you the occasional home run; Helms has actually turned himself into a pretty good pinch hitter, who can spell players in a number of positions. Michaels carries just as much pop, and when nagging injuries develop in the outfield, Michaels will see additional ABs. Counsell plays almost everywhere, but likely will not see too many ABs. There are not very many better options in deep NL leagues, so any of these three are viable pick-ups.