I don't often comment on Major League Baseball happenings that have little to do with Rotisserie, but the Ryan Howard contract extension is big baseball news that is worth my two cents.
According to Cot's, Howard gets a $115M, five-year contract extension starting in 2012 and ending in 2016. The Phillies can then either buy out Howard's 2017 option for $10 million or pay him another $23M to keep him in the fold.
While I do think there is some hyperbole when Fangraphs calls Howard's deal "baseball's newest worst contract" I do agree that the Phillies probably made a mistake here and sunk a big chunk of money into what will ultimately be Howard's decline phase.
Regardless of how much contract inflation we see between now and 2017, a $25M AAV contract will leave Howard toward the top of the pay scale now and six years from now. At the end of 2016, he will be a 36-year-old first baseman.
My biggest concerns with the extension are two-fold:
1) Howard isn't quite the "best of the best".
Howard is an excellent power hitter, but his career batting average of .279 doesn't speak to someone who is going to contend for a Triple Crown every year. Throwing in OBP obviously helps Howard's cause, but he has only been in the Top 10 once in this category, in his MVP year of 2006. In 2006, Howard was an elite player. Otherwise, he's straddling the elite line, with an OPS+ that puts him 9th among active Major League hitters. That's very, very good and in baseball terms there's no doubting that Howard is one of the best. However, he's not quite a cream of the crop hitter.
2) It is hard to predict what Howard's decline will look like, but he will decline.
This is always difficult to envision, but Ryan Howard will eventually not be as good as he is now. Some of the Baseball Reference comparisons are misleading, since Howard has a better adjusted OPS at Age 29 than seven of the 10 hitters on their list. Looking at Richie Sexson and his OPS+ of 123 through Age 29 isn't informative. However, every one of the hitters on the Baseball Reference list - with the exception of Mark McGwire - wasn't as productive in his 30s as he was in his 20s. Willie McCovey is one of the most favorable comparisons here, and while McCovey was productive well into his 30s, he failed to crack 500 plate appearances in his age 33-37 seasons. Injury and/or ineffectiveness are two worries that the Phillies are going to have with Howard as he moves into his 30s.
Todd Helton had an Adjusted OPS of 145 entering his Age 30 season (compared to Howard's 141). Ages 30-35: 165, 144, 117, 133, 99, 130.
Carlos Delgado: Through Age 29: OPS+ 139. Ages 30-37: 147, 161,129, 161, 131, 102, 127, 141.
Fred McGriff: Through Age 29: OPS+ 153. Ages 30-37: 157, 119, 119, 106, 111, 142, 110, 144.
I'm deliberately avoiding the unfavorable Mo Vaughn-types who flamed out quickly past Age 30. The Helton/Delgado/McGriff comps give Howard the benefit of the doubt...yet still anticipate some decline, including some seasons that are right around league average or only slightly better. The McGriff comparison is stark. He was on a clear Hall of Fame trajectory through Age 30 and then put up four very good or above average seasons. He had two bounce back seasons at Ages 35 and 37, but they didn't quite make up for the sting of McGriff's Age 31-34 seasons.
I get why the Phillies bit the bullet. Ryan Howard is a popular player in Philadelphia and is one of the faces of the Phils resurgence. If you are a Phillies fan, it is nice to know that they could even afford this contract; there's no way they would have been able to financially make a deal like this four or five years ago.
Nevertheless, I think the Phillies jumped the gun here. They should have waited until this year was over before they even opened negotiations with Howard. He fits the profile of someone who is going to fall off, and rewarding him for past accomplishments with this contract is a move I think the Phillies are going to regret...even if it's not going to be the major regret that Fangraphs envisions.
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