The Other Side of the Howard Extension

Mike is right - the Howard extension is significant enough baseball news for both of us to comment. I have a different take on the contract, one that I posted to Fangraphs and shared with Mike previously.

According to Cot's, these are the first basemen who are potential free agents next year at the first base position:

Lance Berkman HOU *
Wes Helms FLA
Jason Giambi COL
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
David Ortiz BOS *
Lyle Overbay TOR
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *

The players with asterisks have 2011 options...we can be pretty sure that Pujols will be staying in St. Louis for one more year. Let's assume for a moment, however, that the Phillies would pick up Howard's option for 2011 and he would be a free agent in 2012.

The potential 2012 free agent class is of epic status:

Howard: 49 HR 141 RBI .280 BA 142 OPS+
Pujols: 42 HR 129 RBI .344 BA 172 OPS+
Fielder: 37 HR 107 RBI .282 BA 138 OPS+
Gonzalez: 32HR 99RBI .281 BA 135 OPS+

So what would have happened if the Phillies picked up Ryan Howard's option and he became a free agent in 2012? For purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the economy gets a little better, and the Phillies payroll grows incrementally, as it has the last 2 years.

I have said for about a year now that it will take $28-$30 million to sign Pujols in the open market. I think 7 years (6 + option) for $210 million is about right. How about Prince Fielder? Well, there are two factors at work. One, he is a Scott Boras client...we all know what that means. Two, Prince is about 3 years younger than Howard. I don't think $150 million for the same number of years is unreasonable on the open market. How about Gonzalez? Well, he's going to argue that he is as good of a hitter as Fielder, and is much better defensively. Since he is always linked to the Red Sox, we can assume a similar contract.

So what does Ryan Howard say? Well, Mr. Amaro, I'm better than Gonzalez and arguably better than Fielder. My contract should be between $150 million and $210 million. Sound reasonable?

Well, guess what - the Phillies locked him up for a lot less than that. Sure, he will decline. At some point, however, the last two years of a contract are the last two years of a contract. Some of the "rah-rah" stuff goes here: good guy, quiet leader, loves the city and the city loves him, etc. Keep in mind, though, that the Phillies have abandoned bulky, unmanageably contracts in the past (see Jim Thome). That is all secondary, though...ultimately, the Phillies kept a guy the organization believes is a key cog in the machine for significantly less than the other premier free agent first basemen in 2012 and without breaking up the personality and makeup of this team.