Over the last few years, owners have become stingier and stingier about paying top dollar for closers, at least in expert leagues. Once upon a time, it wasn't uncommon to see even a pedestrian closer go for $30 while the top-tier studs would go in the neighborhood of $40. Today, owners in LABR and Tout Wars seldom go past $30 for even the top-tier firemen, while it isn't uncommon to see even a middle-of-the-pack closer go for under $20.
Is this strategy correct?
Predicted A.L. Closers (AP) 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Bid | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | $28 | $34 | -6 | $39 |
| 2 | Joe Nathan | $39 | $33 | +6 | $45 |
| 3 | Francisco Rodriguez | $35 | $33 | +2 | $43 |
| 4 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $33 | -34 | $42 |
| 5 | Huston Street | $22 | $31 | -9 | $33 |
| 6 | Jon Papelbon | $39 | $29 | +10 | $44 |
| 7 | J.J. Putz | $49 | $27 | +22 | $40 |
| 8 | Chris Ray | $15 | $25 | -10 | $32 |
| 9 | Bobby Jenks | $38 | $21 | +17 | $28 |
| 10 | Joe Borowski | $28 | $19 | +9 | $26 |
| 11 | Todd Jones | $23 | $18 | +5 | $27 |
| 12 | Octavio Dotel | $8 | $17 | -9 | -$6 |
| 13 | Eric Gagne | $14 | $10 | +4 | $1 |
| 14 | Al Reyes | $19 | $10 | +9 | $2 |
| Average | $25 | $24 | +1 | $28 |
Not in 4x4 it isn't.
I reverted to the Patton bids deliberately; these are some of the most aggressive bids you'll find at any website or magazine for closers. Still, even with these bids, and even with the crashing and burning of B.J. Ryan, this is still a profitable group of pitchers.
We can see the risk with Ryan, Dotel and Ray, but nine of these 14 closers turn a profit, even with AP's aggressive bids.
Predicted N.L. Closers (AP) 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Billy Wagner | $31 | $31 | -0 | $38 |
| 2 | Trevor Hoffman | $35 | $30 | +5 | $40 |
| 3 | Takashi Saito | $43 | $28 | +15 | $35 |
| 4 | Chad Cordero | $28 | $26 | +2 | $32 |
| 5 | Brad Lidge | $20 | $26 | -6 | $17 |
| 6 | Francisco Cordero | $34 | $24 | +10 | $25 |
| 7 | Tom Gordon | $6 | $23 | -17 | $28 |
| 8 | Bob Wickman | $15 | $22 | -7 | $27 |
| 9 | Brian Fuentes | $21 | $20 | +1 | $27 |
| 10 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $18 | +20 | $8 |
| 11 | Jason Isringhausen | $32 | $17 | +15 | $25 |
| 12 | Salomon Torres | $6 | $17 | -11 | $12 |
| 13 | Armando Benitez | $3 | $15 | -12 | $14 |
| 14 | David Weathers | $27 | $15 | +12 | $14 |
| 15 | Jorge Julio | -$6 | $12 | -18 | $12 |
| 16 | Ryan Dempster | $18 | $12 | +6 | $12 |
| Average | $22 | $21 | +1 | $23 |
Patton recommends paying less for this group, and they deliver less. There are more disappointments here than in the A.L.: owners who paid for Gordon, Torres, Benitez or Julio had to scramble for saves later. Still, it's important to look at the big picture here.
These pitchers also turned a profit.
I don't think there's an absolute answer for whether or not you should invest heavily in saves or not. But here are two reasons why you shouldn't reject the category purely on a doctrinaire basis.
$356 out of $936. $351 out of $1,014.
The first dollar amount of the amount of Patton $ the pitchers in the tables above earned in 2007. The second dollar amount is how much all auctioned pitchers in the American League (12 teams) and the National League (13 teams) earned in 2007.
To put this another way, 38% of all of the auction value in the American League was bundled up in these 14 pitchers, while 35% of all auction value was wrapped up in the 16 anticipated National League closers.
Can you imagine deciding to undercut 35% of the value in any population regardless of the circumstances in your league?
This isn't to say that you shouldn't dump saves if the circumstances are correct. Your league might have most of the strong closers frozen. You might have a weak freeze list, and therefore don't want to allocate a significant portion of your auction money to one player. You might plan to dump the category in order to try and win. There are plenty of good reasons not to play for saves (or any other category for that matter).
But don't forget that there are plenty of great reasons to try buying saves as well. Don't simply assume you'll be able to FAAB your way to a bullpen. Most of the value in this category will be bought at your auction.
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