Top 10 Predicted N.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Billy Wagner | $31 | $28 | +3 | $38 |
| 2 | Trevor Hoffman | $35 | $24 | +11 | $40 |
| 3 | Chad Cordero | $28 | $23 | +5 | $32 |
| 4 | Brad Lidge | $20 | $23 | -3 | $17 |
| 5 | Francisco Cordero | $34 | $22 | +12 | $25 |
| 6 | Takashi Saito | $43 | $22 | +21 | $35 |
| 7 | Tom Gordon | $6 | $20 | -14 | $28 |
| 8 | Brian Fuentes | $21 | $19 | +2 | $27 |
| 9 | Bob Wickman | $15 | $19 | -4 | $27 |
| 10 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $17 | +21 | $8 |
| Average | $27 | $22 | +5 | $27 |
They do. But the A.L. relievers were discounted far more.
The pitchers here got a $5 pay cut from what they earned in 2006, while the A.L. pitchers took a $13 pay cut from the $37 they earned (on average) in 2006. Part of the lower average earnings stems from the fact that Valverde wasn't a closer in '06 and Lidge struggled, but this is just another way of saying that the N.L. closers weren't as good or reliable in 2006.
And this is true. Eight of the 10 most expensive American League relievers in 2006 earned $30 or more, with five cracking the $40 barrier. Here in the N.L., only four closers earned $30 or more, while only Hoffman made it to $40.
So you'd either expect the A.L. pitchers to get paid more or the N.L. pitchers to get paid less. But they don't.
My supposition is that within the $85 or so each team budgets for its pitching staff, there is a floor and a ceiling set for how much a team will spend on closers. The 10 best A.L. closers earned an average of $37 in 2006? Well, I don't want to spend $37 on a closer. I'll spend $24 and hope I get J.J. Putz. The N.L. closers only earned $27 on average in 2006? Well, I'll discount them a little more, but I still need a closer. I'll spend $22 on F. Cordero and hope I get lucky.
More than at any other position, teams aren't looking for bargains at closer; they're looking for stats. A one inning catastrophe can sabotage a closer's ERA/WHIP, so owners don't pay for that. They pay for one category and one category alone; as long as they get their saves, the rest is gravy.
The problem with this approach is that someone will pay $28 for Billy Wagner and turn a profit. Wagner should be the type of player you make someone else pay $35 for and take a loss on, or at least insist that those profits will be expensive. You definitely don't want to get burned by Tom Gordon, but you also don't want to see someone get Jose Valverde for $17, either.
Next 10 (11-20) Predicted N.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 11 | Salomon Torres | $6 | $15 | -9 | $12 |
| 12 | Jason Isringhausen | $32 | $14 | +18 | $25 |
| 13 | Armando Benitez | $3 | $11 | -8 | $14 |
| 14 | Ryan Dempster | $18 | $10 | +8 | $12 |
| 15 | David Weathers | $27 | $9 | +18 | $14 |
| 16 | Mike Gonzalez | $5 | $7 | -2 | $23 |
| 17 | Jorge Julio | -$6 | $6 | -12 | $12 |
| 18 | Jonathan Broxton | $13 | $6 | +7 | $13 |
| 19 | Taylor Tankersley | $5 | $6 | -1 | $6 |
| 20 | Dan Wheeler | $8 | $6 | +2 | $17 |
| Average | $11 | $9 | +2 | $15 |
Entering the season, the N.L. closer situations were generally far more stable than in the A.L., and this is reflected in the pecking order. Mike Gonzalez is the top middle reliever, and Jorge Julio is the only closer who falls behind him. This is where using prices from leagues that auction at different times isn't too useful; Julio's average price would likely be closer to Dempster's $10 if all five leagues I'm using for this average price set their prices on Opening Day.
The $9 average salary is $1 more than the A.L.'s for this group, but in actuality is more conservative. The N.L. has 16 possible closers to buy compared to the A.L.'s 14. The bottom tier closers like Dempster and Izzy are getting gypped, while the market pays a little bit for the CIWs like Broxton, Tankersley and Wheeler.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted N.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 21 | Rafael Soriano | $20 | $5 | +15 | $11 |
| 22 | Scott Linebrink | $7 | $5 | +2 | $12 |
| 23 | Bobby Howry | $16 | $5 | +11 | $14 |
| 24 | Kevin Gregg | $24 | $5 | +19 | $3 |
| 25 | Matt Capps | $27 | $4 | +23 | $13 |
| 26 | Kerry Wood | $2 | $4 | -2 | $1 |
| 27 | Aaron Heilman | $16 | $4 | +12 | $10 |
| 28 | Jon Rauch | $16 | $3 | +13 | $11 |
| 29 | Brian Wilson | $9 | $3 | +6 | -$2 |
| 30 | Cla Meredith | $6 | $3 | +3 | $19 |
| Average | $14 | $4 | +10 | $9 |
Eureka! Now this is what we expect when we pay good money for set-up guys and closers-in-waiting. You pay $3-5 and hope to get a Capps or a Gregg, but if you don't you get a handful of saves from a Heilman, Howry or Rauch, along with a solid ERA and WHIP. There isn't even a bomb to be seen here. Wood is the only pitcher to lose his owners money; constrast that with the six pitchers who earned negative dollars in this group in the A.L.
Is this a bump in the road, though, or are the best middle relievers in the N.L. simply more predictable?
Top 10 N.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Heath Bell | $23 | -$4 | ||
| 2 | Peter Moylan | $20 | -$1 | ||
| 3 | Rafael Soriano | $20 | $5 | +15 | $11 |
| 4 | Russ Springer | $19 | $7 | ||
| 5 | Carlos Marmol | $17 | -$7 | ||
| 6 | Bobby Howry | $16 | $5 | +11 | $14 |
| 7 | Jon Rauch | $16 | $3 | +13 | $11 |
| 8 | Aaron Heilman | $16 | $4 | +12 | $10 |
| 9 | Ryan Franklin | $14 | $2 | ||
| 10 | Tony Pena | $14 | $1 | ||
| Average | $18 | $2 | +16 | $4 |
Nope. In fact, the market touches even fewer of these pitchers than it did in the A.L. Six of these pitchers don't even get a bid from any of the touts or expert leagues; in the A.L., only four pitchers were passed on entirely. In both leagues, the average 2006 earnings were $4, so it's not like the A.L. group was significantly inferior.
Despite the wild fluctuations in value in middle relievers from year to year, owners pay for past performance. It's not a coincidence that all of the investments here were made in the guys who earned double digits the year before.
Next 10 (31-40) Predicted N.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 31 | Todd Coffey | -$6 | $3 | -9 | $11 |
| 32 | Ricky Nolasco | -$2 | $2 | -4 | $5 |
| 33 | Carlos Villanueva | $9 | $2 | +7 | $7 |
| 34 | Henry Owens | $7 | $2 | +5 | -$2 |
| 35 | Mike Stanton | -$7 | $2 | -9 | $12 |
| 36 | Dustin Hermanson | $2 | -2 | $1 | |
| 37 | Hong-Chih Kuo | -$5 | $2 | -7 | -$1 |
| 38 | Chad Qualls | $13 | $1 | +12 | $12 |
| 39 | Matt Lindstrom | $7 | $1 | +6 | |
| 40 | Juan Cruz | $9 | $1 | +8 | $5 |
| Average | $3 | $2 | +1 | $5 |
There's a little more variability here.
Still, I can't help thinking that the N.L. was a better place to go trolling for middle relief help. Sixteen middle relievers in the N.L. earned $10 or more, compared with 11 in the A.L. 2006 featured even more of a discrepancy, with the N.L. out pacing the A.L. 21-10. I'm not sure what the reasons are. Perhaps the DH has something to do with it. But in 4x4, you do want to be scanning the waiver wire for these guys; they will have an impact on your season.
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