As often happens during the regular season, esoteric conversations like this get lost in the shuffle. Happily, winter is a great time to revisit some of these points.
One of the points that sas4 made was:
Every year I have 3-4 roster spots with $1-3 players that I hope to fill with a miracle. This year they include Snelling, McLouth, Broussard, S. Stewart, and on the pitching side, Lohse and Chacin.So far this winter, I've spent a lot of time looking at both the LABR and Tout Wars auctions. One problem with this approach here is that LABR and Tout Wars auction well before the season begins. Buying Al Reyes at $1 on March 1 or picking him up on reserve is a testament to luck, not Roto acumen.
What I'll do instead is look at the players from my American League auction last April to see if there were bargains in the crapshoot phase of the auction. I'll define the crapshoot as the section of the auction where $1-3 is generally spent on each player.
Players bought $3 or less, BABG League, Rounds 1-9 (Pre-Crapshoot)
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| DER | 27 (3) | Joel Pineiro | $2 | -$2 | -4 | JSC | DER |
| DEW | 53 (5) | Jason LaRue | $2 | -$3 | -5 | BAT | DEW |
| GLA | 62 (6) | Fausto Carmona | $2 | $32 | +30 | TOW | GLA |
| DEW | 65 (6) | Sidney Ponson | $1 | -$7 | -8 | DEW | |
| DER | 75 (7) | Jesse Crain | $3 | -$0 | -3 | BAT | JIH |
| DEW | 89 (8) | Ramon Ortiz | $1 | -$1 | -2 | DEW | |
| DOZ | 90 (8) | Carlos Silva | $1 | $13 | +12 | DOZ | |
| JIH | 95 (8) | Mike Maroth | $2 | -$4 | -6 | BAT | JIH |
| COP | 100 (9) | Fernando Rodney | $2 | $3 | +1 | TOW | COP |
| DOZ | 102 (9) | Joe Kennedy | $1 | -$2 | -3 | DOZ | |
| BEN | 103 (9) | James Shields | $3 | $24 | +21 | QUI | JIH |
| QUI | 104 (9) | Tomo Ohka | $3 | -$5 | -8 | QUI | JSC |
| JAB | 108 (9) | Omar Infante | $1 | $4 | +3 | JAB | |
| Average | $2 | $4 | +2 |
As is always the case, there are always players that are bought cheaply earlier in the auction. This is commonly the product of one of the following gambits:
1) The nominating owner wants the player and hopes that everyone else is saving his money/slots for someone better or asleep at the wheel.
2) The nominating owner doesn't want the player, can live with that player at $1, but hopes that someone starts a mini-bidding war.
3) The owner is out of money early and is trying to fill in slots with someone he likes.
This is a 12-team league, so each "round" in the auction goes 12 deep. The round is in parenthesis. With freezes, the auction is only a 13+ round affair. You could make the argument that Round 9 is the beginning of the crapshoot, but enough players go for $4 or more, so I'll just include the guys listed above to give you a look.
11 of the 13 players bought early are pitchers. Only Infante and LaRue buck this trend, and neither one is a big success. Owners tend to wait before filling out their roster with these types of hitters. LaRue, in particular, is a gambit I don't like: grabbing a cheap catcher early and staking out your preference by doing so. There's a reason Jason LaRue only goes for $2; he's no better than all of the flotsam and jetsam sitting around at the end of the auction.
Generally speaking, these pitchers are losers. Seven of the 11 pitchers bought cheap and early produce negative earnings. However, two of the 10 that do earn in the positives are huge buys for their owners. Carmona and Shields not only are profit-makers, they're difference makers. Carmona was the 5th best American League starter in 2007 and the best unfrozen starter, while Shields was 11th/4th.
Here's another reason to buy one of these cheap starters: if you do take a loss on a pitcher, you're not taking it for long.
Tomo Ohka: Waived April 16.
Joel Pineiro Waived April 16.
Sidney Ponson: Waived April 16.
Ramon Ortiz: Waived May 21.
These cheap fliers are just that. If they don't work out, their owners aren't afraid to move on.
I don't recommend buying nine of these guys. You do need a solid rotation to win. But taking one or maybe even two shots like this won't kill your team and, if things break right, you might wind up with Fausto Carmona.
Round 10, BABG
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| JSC | 109 | Tony Pena Jr. | $1 | $7 | +6 | JSC | |
| GLA | 110 | Doug Mirabelli | $1 | $1 | -0 | GLA | |
| COP | 111 | Rondell White | $3 | $1 | -2 | COP | DEW |
| DEW | 112 | Jason Michaels | $2 | $8 | +6 | JAB | DEW |
| DOZ | 113 | Jorge de la Rosa | $1 | -$9 | -10 | DOZ | |
| BEN | 114 | Juan Rivera | $4 | $2 | -2 | JIH | TOW |
| QUI | 115 | Doug Mientkiewicz | $3 | $5 | +2 | QUI | JAB |
| TOW | 116 | Joaquin Arias | $1 | -1 | TOW | ||
| BAT | 117 | Josh Phelps | $1 | $2 | +1 | BAT | |
| JIH | 118 | Chad Gaudin | $1 | $1 | -0 | JIH | |
| JAB | 119 | Melky Cabrera | $3 | $16 | +13 | TOW | DEW |
| JSC | 120 | Kameron Loe | $1 | -$8 | -9 | JSC | |
| Average | $2 | $2 | +0 |
The winner in this round is the team that bought Melky Cabrera for $3. This is the owner who also bought Carmona for $2, so I'm more than a little curious as to why his team finished 6th in the hypothetical standings.
Now that we're actually in the crapshoot, the focus has shifted from pitching to hitting. We're at the point of the auction where most teams are trying to fill needs, as opposed to trying to sneak in a bargain. Jason Michaels isn't a bad buy at $2, but I'm sure his owner wasn't jumping for joy at this point; you can see him fighting me for Mientkiewicz three players later. The pitchers are the same deal. Gaudin and Loe are shots in the dark, and I don't remember the winning owners doing the Myposian Dance of Joy.
One team (marked DER in the first chart) has already finished for the day with Royce Clayton ($4) in the previous round. He didn't buy a single $1-3 player.
Round 11
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| GLA | 121 | David Dellucci | $4 | $2 | -2 | TOW | JAB |
| COP | 122 | Robinson Tejada | $5 | -$14 | -19 | COP | JAB |
| DEW | 123 | Dustin Moseley | $1 | $3 | +2 | DEW | |
| DOZ | 124 | Rob Mackowiak | $1 | $8 | +7 | DOZ | |
| BEN | 125 | Brandon Morrow | $2 | -$2 | -4 | BAT | BEN |
| QUI | 126 | Todd Walker | $3 | $0 | -3 | QUI | JIH |
| TOW | 127 | Dan Johnson | $2 | $9 | +7 | JAB | TOW |
| BAT | 128 | Travis Buck | $8 | $9 | +1 | JAB | BAT |
| JIH | 129 | Ben Broussard | $3 | $7 | +4 | JSC | TOW |
| JAB | 130 | Casey Jannsen | $1 | $14 | +13 | JAB | |
| JSC | 131 | Jeff Karstens | $1 | -$7 | -8 | JSC | |
| GLA | 132 | Pat Neshek | $2 | $15 | +13 | COP | GLA |
| Average | $3 | $4 | +1 |
Whether it's the market recognizing that it has to spend its money before the afternoon is over, or a ploy of waiting out some slightly better risks, the spending here actually increases slightly. The lack of hindsight is a funny thing. I'm sure Dellucci's buyer was patting himself on the back, and I was pretty happy with my Todd Walker buy at the time. If bids express preferences, you always feel a little better if you can get a $2 or $3 player here than a $1 player in the you-pick, I-pick phase of the auction later.
The Jables (JAB) leap out as having too much money for too many slots here at the end. They chase Travis Buck to $8 because he's the best flyer left on the table, and are involved in the purchase or last bid of five of these players.
Pat Neshek is in bold because The Copasetics have bowed out for the day with a very nice buy.
Round 12
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| DEW | 133 | Jason Tyner | $1 | $7 | +6 | DEW | |
| DOZ | 134 | Jeremy Accardo | $1 | $32 | +31 | DOZ | |
| BEN | 135 | Brian Anderson | $1 | -$1 | -2 | BEN | |
| QUI | 136 | John Buck | $3 | $6 | +3 | JAB | JIH |
| TOW | 137 | Shannon Stewart | $4 | $17 | +13 | BAT | TOW |
| JIH | 138 | Kelly Shoppach | $2 | $5 | +3 | JAB | JIH |
| JAB | 139 | John Danks | $2 | -$8 | -10 | JIH | JAB |
| JSC | 140 | Eric Hinske | $2 | $2 | -0 | TOW | JSC |
| GLA | 141 | Bobby Kielty | $1 | $0 | -1 | GLA | |
| DEW | 142 | Jose Molina | $2 | $2 | +0 | DEW | |
| DOZ | 143 | Greg Norton | $1 | $2 | +1 | DOZ | |
| BEN | 144 | Danys Baez | $1 | -$5 | -6 | BEN | |
| Average | $2 | $5 | +3 |
Eric Hinske is the last player where there are multiple bids; from this point forward, it's a draft. This round swings back toward hitters, with nine of the 12 players in this round on the hitting side. Shannon Stewart should have gone earlier, but here he is sitting in the end game. I had him at $8-9 on my sheet, but had filled out my OF/CO a while back and couldn't price enforce.
Notice, though, that the OF/CO pickings are still slim. Anderson, Hinske, Kielty and Norton's buyers probably felt as good or better about their buys than Stewart's owner, but notice they didn't work out.
Jeremy Accardo is Exhibit A as to why you should take at least one flier on a middle reliever in your auction.
Round 13+
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB | ||||||||||||||||
| QUI | 145 | Chris Heintz | $1 | $0 | -1 | QUI | |||||||||||||||||
| JIH | 146 | Jason Frasor | $1 | $3 | +2 | JIH | |||||||||||||||||
| JAB | 147 | Matt Clement | $1 | -1 | JAB | ||||||||||||||||||
| JSC | 148 | Reggie Sanders | $1 | $3 | +2 | JSC | |||||||||||||||||
| GLA | 149 | Mark Kotsay | $1 | -$1 | -2 | GLA | |||||||||||||||||
| DOZ | 150 | Jaret Wright | $1 | -$3 | -4 | DOZ | |||||||||||||||||
| BEN | 151 | Joel Peralta | $1 | $4 | +3 | BEN | |||||||||||||||||
| JIH | 152 | Jerry Hairston Jr. | $1 | $1 | -0 | JIH | |||||||||||||||||
| JAB | 153 | Scott Proctor | $1 | $1 | -1 | JAB | |||||||||||||||||
| JSC | 154 | Toby Hall | $1 | -$2 | -3 | JSC | |||||||||||||||||
| GLA | 155 | Robb Quinlan | $1 | $3 | +2 | GLA | |||||||||||||||||
| BEN | 156 | Tom Mastny | $1 | $1 | +0 | BEN | |||||||||||||||||
| JIH | 157 | Juan Salas | $1 | $1 | -0 | JIH | |||||||||||||||||
| JAB | 158 | Luis Vizcaino | $1 | $5 | +4 | JAB | |||||||||||||||||
| GLA | 159 | Ryan Braun | $1 | -$6 | -7 | GLA | |||||||||||||||||
| JIH | 160 | Jason Phillips | $1 | -$1 | -2 | JIH | |||||||||||||||||
| GLA | 161 | Juan Rincon | $1 | -$2 | -3 | GLA | |||||||||||||||||
| JIH | 162 | Paul Bako | $1 | -$2 | -3 | JIH | |||||||||||||||||
| Average | $1 | $0 | -1 |
It does appear that you don't want to get stuck with too many $1 players. In a healthy Stage 3 league like mine, the last 18 players are truly the bottom of the barrel. A $1 Reggie Sanders isn't going to turn into a $20 player. Or, at the very least, the odds of him doing so are extremely poor.
There is profit here on individual players of course. Getting $5 of stats from Vizcaino or $4 from Peralta doesn't sound like much, but it has to be viewed outside of the vacuum of a round-by-round approach of an auction.
Two questions must be asked, in order to address sas4's question.
1) How many $1-3 players did each owner buy, not including freezes?
2) How good were these teams coming out of the auction?
Crapshoot ($1-3) Impact
| Team | $1-3 Buys | Cost | Earned | +/- | Auction Points | |
| GLA | 6 | $6 | -$5 | -11 | 73 | |
| JAB | 9 | $14 | $52 | +38 | 69 | |
| DOZ | 7 | $7 | $41 | +34 | 64 | |
| JSC | 7 | $10 | -$2 | -12 | 60.5 | |
| COP | 2 | $5 | $16 | +11 | 60 | |
| TOW | 5 | $10 | $53 | +43 | 57 | |
| QUI | 5 | $13 | $24 | +11 | 55 | |
| DEW | 5 | $6 | $4 | -2 | 50.5 | |
| DER | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0 | 45.5 | |
| BEN | 4 | $10 | -$1 | -11 | 38 | |
| BAT | 5 | $10 | $5 | -5 | 35.5 | |
| JIH | 7 | $8 | -$5 | -13 | 16 |
Obviously, grabbing a $1 Accardo or a $2 Cabrera was going to have an impact. But it's more than a little interesting that the best team coming out of the auction didn't have one of these high impact crapshoot players.
However, the other side of the coin is that sas4 is right, generally speaking. Regardless of how the rest of your day might have gone, Stage 3 leagues are tight enough that it looks like it is worth saving a little money for those cheap $1-3 players at the end. The teams at the bottom of this chart didn't hit the lottery on any of their cheap picks, and I don't believe it's a coincidence that their auctions didn't work out the way they hoped.
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