That was sas4's assertion during one of our discussions back in April. Now that the season is over, it's a good time to look back and see how accurate this claim is.
Top 10 Free Agent Hitters, 2007, A.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Carlos Pena | $32 | $1 | ||
| 2 | Marlon Byrd | $18 | $2 | ||
| 3 | Reggie Willits | $18 | $2 | ||
| 4 | Jack Cust | $16 | $0 | ||
| 5 | Jerry Owens | $15 | $1 | ||
| 6 | Brendan Harris | $14 | $0 | ||
| 7 | Josh Fields | $13 | $0 | ||
| 8 | Franklin Gutierrez | $11 | $1 | ||
| 9 | Jacoby Ellsbury | $10 | |||
| 10 | Joey Gathright | $8 | $10 | ||
| Average | $16 | $2 |
It's a long way down from Pena to Gathright, but this is a fairly robust group of hitters. I've included players who were probably on farm teams, but there aren't even a lot of guys who qualify in this group; Ellsbury and Fields are the only players who were probably owned on a farm team in a lot of leagues.
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, A.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Joakim Soria | $24 | |||
| 2 | Joaquin Benoit | $18 | -$1 | ||
| 3 | Brian Bannister | $17 | $1 | ||
| 4 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | |||
| 5 | Dustin McGowan | $16 | -$8 | ||
| 6 | Matt Guerrier | $15 | $3 | ||
| 7 | Shawn Marcum | $15 | -$4 | ||
| 8 | Jeremy Guthrie | $15 | -$5 | ||
| 9 | C.J. Wilson | $15 | $4 | ||
| 10 | Rafael Perez | $14 | $0 | ||
| Average | $17 | -$1 |
All in all, though, you'd rather be diving into this pool. Four more pitchers who don't make this list earn $10 or more; the hitters drop off quickly. In addition, these aren't the kind of pitchers Roto owners are wasting their farm picks on.
Top 10 Free Agent Hitters, N.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | $35 | |||
| 2 | Hunter Pence | $24 | |||
| 3 | James Loney | $19 | $4 | ||
| 4 | Matt Diaz | $18 | $13 | ||
| 5 | Nate McLouth | $16 | $5 | ||
| 6 | Mark Teixeira | $15 | $24 | ||
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | $13 | |||
| 8 | Ryan Spilborghs | $13 | $7 | ||
| 9 | Norris Hopper | $13 | $3 | ||
| 10 | Yuniel Escobar | $12 | |||
| Average | $18 | $6 |
A better list than in the A.L., but more players like Braun, Pence and Loney who were snatched up quickly in leagues with farm systems (or already owned, in leagues with carry over farm systems). Diaz and Hopper are the only huge surprises here.
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, N.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Manny Corpas | $27 | $2 | ||
| 2 | Heath Bell | $23 | -$4 | ||
| 3 | Peter Moylan | $20 | -$1 | ||
| 4 | Russ Springer | $19 | $7 | ||
| 5 | Carlos Marmol | $18 | -$7 | ||
| 6 | Ryan Franklin | $14 | $2 | ||
| 7 | Tony Pena | $14 | $1 | ||
| 8 | Lee Gardner | $13 | |||
| 9 | Kyle Kendrick | $12 | |||
| 10 | Yovani Gallardo | $12 | |||
| Average | $17 | $0 |
There's no doubt that these are very good pitchers. But this isn't the kind of help owners are typically trolling the free agent pool for. They wanted 150 great innings from Homer Bailey but wound up settling on Kyle Kendrick.
Or settling for the drip from Russ Springer.
I would agree with sas4 that we should spend less on pitching, but not because there is more pitching available via free agency.
Pitching is less predictable than hitting, especially once we get past the Top 10 projected best pitchers. Spending $15 on a starting pitcher who might "earn" ($15) is one of the most sure-fire ways to end your season fast. As I've talked about time and time again, a mid-level $15 hitter cannot torpedo your team the way a second-tier $15 pitcher can.
You're just as likely to buy a $3-5 gem toward the end of the auction as you are a $15 gem toward the beginning of the auction. That is the main reason to spend less on pitching. Spending less on pitchers because Brian Bannister or Kyle Kendrick are waiting for you in the future is a not a winning strategy in my mind, especially since the 2006 column shows us that identifying these guys as the season plays out is next to impossible, while the 2007 column shows us that the return isn't always as great as we think it will be.
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