Trading for power vs. trading for pitching

Way back in April, sas4 commented:

Greater pitching is hard to get latter in the season via a trade--with that I agree: However it is harder to get power for pitching in a league where it cost so much originally. Most of our trades are mid priced pitchers for slightly lower quality hitters. Stud hitters and pitchers never go except when someone has a lock on a category.

Part of the discussion sas4 and I were having centered around the differences between a league that goes $175/$85 for hitting per team versus one that spends $208/$52 per team. To that end, I don't have a significant frame of reference for a $208/$52 league, since sas4's is the only one I've ever heard about. I did think I'd take a look back at my A.L. and the N.L. I was tracking in-season for FAAB purposes to see if any of the top 10 pitchers or power hitters were traded in-season and what their market was.

A.L. Power Hitters (ranked by Patton $ in power categories)
1) Alex Rodriguez Auctioned at $42 by 3rd place team (tie). Stayed put.

2) Carlos Pena. FAABed in April by 11th place team. Stayed put.

Free agents jump to $10, and Pena will be kept at $10 by this rebuilding team.

3) David Ortiz. Auctioned at $38 by 9th place team. Traded on May 21 with Michael Cuddyer, Dan Haren and Todd Jones to 2nd place team for Ben Broussard, Billy Butler, Matt Guerrier, Evan Longoria and Huston Street.

Ortiz and Haren were the biggest pieces to this deal that sent a $10 Butler, and $11 Street and a future in Longoria to a non-contender.

4) Magglio Ordonez. Frozen at $26 by 8th place team. Traded on August 1 with Brian Bannister, Mark Grudzielanek, Matt Guerrier, Joe Mauer and Ehren Wassermann for Ryan Braun, Jay Gibbons, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Molina, Carl Pavano, Andy Sonnanstine, B.J. Upton and Chien-Ming Wang.

Another dump trade, essentially for Upton at $10 and Wang at $4 heading into contract years.

5) (tie) Vladimir Guerrero. Bought at $44 by 11th place team. Traded on April 23 with Miguel Tejada for Tony Pena Jr. and Grady Sizemore.

Sizemore at $20 was clearly the centerpiece of this deal.

5) (tie) Justin Morneau. Frozen at $15 by 5th place team. Traded on May 28 with Danys Baez, Frank Francisco, Torii Hunter and Jaime Walker for Jeremy Accardo, Josh Beckett and Eric Chavez.

This is the first non-dump trade here. This team had owned B.J. Ryan and its pitching was sucking wind, so it sacrificed a ton of power in Morneau and Hunter for Accardo and Beckett. I think the team trading Accardo and Beckett overpaid at the time, and trading a $1 Accardo for a $15 Morneau in his option year was a mistake, though I don't know if Accardo's value will carry over into 2008.

7) Jim Thome. Frozen at $27 by 8th place team. Traded on August 1 with Josh Barfield and Jason Kubel for Luis Castillo, Brandon Inge, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Clement.

With only five teams gunning for first, the pickings were slim for dumpers by this point. Castillo and Teixeira had already been moved to the N.L., so this trade was basically for a $10 Inge and minor leaguer Clement. Interestingly, Thome was the highest ranked power hitter to wind up on the first place squad, who did win HR and was second in RBI.

8) Torii Hunter. Frozen at $25 by 5th place team. See Justin Morneau.

9) Victor Martinez. Frozen at $26 by 3rd place team (tie). Stayed put.

10) Paul Konerko. Auctioned at $32 by 6th place team. Traded on May 28 with Julio Lugo and Scot Shields for Chad Bradford, Eric Hinske, Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Wood.

Another dump trade, as this team climbed quickly due to a number of savvy pitching pick-ups during the year. Wood was the centerpiece of this deal at the time, though a $10 Pedroia looks nice right about now.

A.L. Starting Pitchers (ranked by overall Patton $)
1) C.C. Sabathia. Frozen at $17 by 2nd place team. Traded on August 1 with Jose Capellan, Michael Cuddyer and Miguel Tejada for Erik Bedard, Jeff Niemann and Jered Weaver.

A non-dump trade right off the bat, though it was affected by prior dump trades. Cuddyer and Tejada would have put this team over the cap, so he dealt them to pick up the extra starter for a wins play that just didn't work out. Obviously, the Bedard injury hurt a lot. Without the benefit of hindsight, it looks like this deal put a premium on Weaver's value. Assuming Sabathia and Bedard were fairly even pre-trade, Weaver and Niemann were dealt for Cuddyer and Tejada, two solid if not great hitters.

2) Josh Beckett. Frozen at $31 by 3rd place team (tie). See Justin Morneau.

3) John Lackey. Frozen at $15 by 6th place team. A) Traded on April 30 with Melky Cabrera for Sean Henn and Manny Ramirez. B) Traded on July 23 with Nick Adenhart, Sean Casey, Johnny Damon, Mike Lowell, Ron Villone and Josh Wilson for Adrian Beltre, Jeremy Bonderman, Curtis Granderson, Bobby Jenks, Casey Kotchman and Manny Ramirez.

A) Despite his cheap price, the 2nd place owner stole an important dump chip, along with a cheap Melky Cabrera ($3) for an at-market Manny Ramirez ($35). Lackey's owner needed power, and Lackey did outpeform his previous Patton earnings in 2007, but this was still a reach, even discounting Cabrera's emergence.

B) Lackey and Lowell ($8) were the big pieces of a dump deal that netted a nice group of everyday players. All performed well, except for Bonderman, though that's an understatement. Bonderman's nightmarish final two months torpedoed the 2nd place team's shot at the title, and underscore the difficulty of trading top pitching in a dump deal unless you make sure to get a top pitcher in return.

4) Johan Santana. Frozen at $47 by 8th place team. Traded on July 23 with Orlando Cabrera and Mike Piazza for Josh Barfield, Jeff Karstens and Jon Papelbon.

I love Papelbon at $12 going into a contract year this winter, but given Santana's track record, his owner probably could have held out for more and traded Santana for Papelbon straight up.

5) Fausto Carmona. Auctioned at $2 by 6th place team. Stayed put.

6) Dan Haren. Frozen at $14 by 9th place team. See David Ortiz.

7) Erik Bedard. Frozen at $9 by 3rd place team (tie). See C.C. Sabathia.

8) Javier Vazquez. Auctioned at $16 by 6th place team. Traded on June 4 with Justin Duchscherer for Aaron Fultz, Luke Hochevar and Mike Macdougal.

The team that got Vazquez also wound up dumping, but this seems like a poor return for Vazquez, even if there was a minor league pick involved that I'm missing here.

9) Kelvim Escobar. Auctioned at $22 by 3rd place team. Stayed put.

10) Justin Verlander. Frozen at $15 by 8th place team. Traded on May 28 with Jason Bartlett, Jaime Burke, Tyler Clippard and Jose Molina for Orlando Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Mike Redmond, Andy Pettitte and Fernando Rodney.

This team obviously zigged (went for it) shortly before they zagged (dumping later). I'm again not sold on the return here for Verlander, but to be fair he is still an emerging pitcher without the cache of a Santana or a Roy Halladay.

I'm surprised by the results of this admittedly crude exercise. A lot of movement amongst the top hitters, though it is more than a little amusing that the top two teams didn't buy or freeze most of these players. The eventual winner didn't start the year with any of these players and, in fact, only wound up owning Jim Thome amongst the Top 10 power hitters and Top 10 pitchers.

More important factors in carry-over leagues are contract status and whether or not a team has the will to contend. The handful of non-dump trades that did occur between teams didn't necessarily overvalue pitching like I expected, but that could be attributed to the fact that there was more balance amongst the top A.L. pitchers this year than in years past (which would explain the winner not owning a Top 10 pitcher at any point during the season.