This is the second part in a series looking at in-season trades of top hitters versus top pitchers, how frequently those trades happen, and what trends we might see from those trades.
N.L. Hitters (Ranked by Patton $ earnings for HR/RBI):
1) Ryan Howard. Frozen at $15 by 4th place team. Traded on July 26 with Norris Hopper and Chad Huffman for Adam Dunn, Mike Jacobs and Jake Peavy.
Howard at $15 went in what was a 2.5-1 dump deal, with Dunn and Peavy as the big chips in a dump deal that would have had more impact if it had been made on the earlier side.
2) Prince Fielder. Frozen at $15 by 8th place team. Stayed put.
3) Matt Holliday. Frozen at $17 by 1st place team. Stayed put.
Holliday was a Roto free agent who had no dump value to a non-contender.
4) Adam Dunn. Auctioned at $33 by 12th place team. See Ryan Howard.
5) Miguel Cabrera. Frozen at $15 by 6th place team. Traded on July 21 with John Smoltz for Endy Chavez, Chris Duncan, Kyle Kendrick and Joey Votto.
Due to the fact that he was in the last year of his Roto contract, Cabrera was dump material. There isn't a sure thing here for the dumper, but Duncan, Kendrick and Votto could be a fairly sizable return in 2008 if all three perform near peak.
6) Carlos Lee. Auctioned at $46 by 6th place team. Traded on July 21 with Mike Cameron, Tom Glavine, Jason Marquis, Yorvit Torrealba, David Weathers and Delwyn Young for Pedro Feliciano, Yovani Gallardo, Adam Kennedy, Nate McLouth, Troy Patton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ian Stewart, Drew Stubbs and Taylor Tankersley.
Ho hum...just your average, 16 player dump deal. I like this team's return better in the Cabrera deal, but Cabrera and Smoltz are better plays than Lee and the rest of this group. This trade looked better before Salty and Patton got traded out of the league in late July and earlier today, respectively.
7) Carlos Beltran. Frozen at $40 by 3rd place team. Stayed put.
8) Lance Berkman. Frozen at $24 by 1st place team. Stayed put.
9) Brad Hawpe. Frozen at $7 by 3rd place team. Stayed put.
Like Holliday, Hawpe was in his Roto option year and had no dump value.
10) Ryan Braun. Farm player for 2nd place team. Stayed put.
This team had Braun and Hanley Ramirez ($17) out of the gate, didn't dump either player and still finished in 2nd. I wonder if they couldn't find that trade to put themselves over the top or simply choose not to do so. The second possibility is unforgivable. They did dump Hunter Pence in late July.
N.L. Starting Pitchers (ranked by overall Patton $).
1) Jake Peavy. Auctioned at $36 by 12th place team. See Ryan Howard.
I would have thought it was impossible to buy Peavy this year and fail to contend. I would have thought wrong.
2) Brandon Webb. Frozen at $27 by 6th place team. Stayed put.
Good move by a non-contender. The temptation to toss a $20+ SP like Webb into a dump deal is great, but this is the kind of pitcher you should build your staff around, not toss overboard.
3) John Smoltz. Frozen at $27 by 6th place team. See Miguel Cabrera.
4) Aaron Harang. Purchased at $21 by 5th place team. Stayed put.
5) Cole Hamels. Frozen at $5 by 1st place team. Stayed put.
It's nice to win and not have to dump a player like this. See Ryan Braun. If you're going for it, go for it, press your opponent, and make sure that he's forced to unload.
6) Tim Hudson. Purchased at $16 by 2nd place team. Stayed put.
7) Brad Penny. Purchased at $16 by 1st place team. Stayed put.
8) Ted Lilly. Purchased at $12 by 7th place team. Stayed put.
9) Chris Young. Frozen at $10 by 5th place team. Stayed put.
10) Roy Oswalt. Frozen at $37 by 2nd place team. Stayed put.
This National League showed far less volatility in its trade market than the A.L. I looked at in my previous post. In particular, the top pitchers were slightly more likely to stay in one place than the top hitters, though there isn't a single non-dump trade to be seen. Looking at it through this lens, both top hitters and top pitchers are highly unlikely to be moved, especially by a contender to another contender.
1 comment:
I should also add that this N.L. shows what I've noticed is a typical corollary between buying or freezing good pitchers and contending. Peavy was the only pitcher bought by a team that finished below 6th, and that's not an accident. You can buy two or even three stud power hitters and still wind up with a poor offense due to imbalance and your non-star players not contributing. But the odds of competing without a pitcher who earns $20-25 or more are slim indeed.
Post a Comment