sas4 believes that the $4-6 pitchers will fall to $1 or $2.
in the power oriented league, those $4-6 pitchers fall to a buck or $2.Regardless of how your league spends money, it would at least be interesting to go back and look at how the pitchers who were priced at $6 and under by Alex Patton did.
$4-6 Starting Pitcher Predictions (AP): American League
| Player | $ | Bid | +/- | 2006 | BABG |
| Jeff Weaver | -$11 | $6 | -17 | -$8 | $5 |
| Esteban Loaiza | $4 | $6 | -2 | $4 | $6 |
| Gil Meche | $15 | $6 | +9 | $6 | $11 |
| Daniel Cabrera | -$10 | $6 | -16 | -$2 | $5F |
| Paul Byrd | $9 | $5 | +4 | -$2 | $4 |
| Joe Blanton | $21 | $5 | +16 | $2 | $10F |
| Jarrod Washburn | $7 | $5 | +2 | $4 | $6F |
| Zach Greinke | $11 | $5 | +6 | $1 | $1F |
| Bartolo Colon | -$9 | $5 | -14 | -$3 | $6 |
| James Shields | $24 | $5 | +19 | $0 | $3 |
| Carl Pavano | $1 | $4 | -3 | $3F | |
| Gustavo Chacin | $0 | $4 | -4 | $3 | $1F |
| Adam Loewen | -$0 | $4 | -4 | -$4 | $7 |
| Average | $5 | $5 | -0 | $1 | $5 |
This group comes within decimal points of breaking even, despite some pretty poor cumulative stats in 2006. The fact that these pitchers almost break even doesn't speak to the significant variability in the group. Three pitchers (Cabrera, Colon and Weaver) are utter busts, while two (Blanton and Shields) turn huge profits.
The BABG column is my league, with the "F" indicating a freeze price. Notice that only Gil Meche gets a significant bump from his perceived Patton bid limit; the rest of the players get as much as Patton recommended or get shafted. This is a group of pitchers owners simply refuse to pay for.
$1-3 Starting Pitcher Predictions (AP): American League
| Player | $ | Bid | +/- | 2006 | BABG |
| Tomo Ohka | -$5 | $3 | -8 | $1 | $3 |
| Kenny Rogers | $1 | $3 | -2 | $22 | $1F |
| Brian Bannister | $17 | $3 | +14 | $1 | |
| Odalis Perez | -$9 | $3 | -12 | -$11 | |
| Mike Maroth | -$4 | $3 | -7 | $3 | $2 |
| Carlos Silva | $13 | $3 | +10 | -$9 | $1 |
| Luke Hudson | -$2 | $3 | -5 | $1 | |
| Jae Seo | -$13 | $3 | -16 | -$12 | |
| Victor Zambrano | -$11 | $3 | -14 | -$3 | |
| Miguel Batista | $7 | $3 | +4 | $1 | |
| Jeff Karstens | -$7 | $2 | -9 | $4 | $1 |
| Josh Towers | -$2 | $2 | -4 | -$15 | |
| Robinson Tejeda | -$14 | $2 | -16 | $1 | $5 |
| John Danks | -$8 | $2 | -10 | $2 | |
| John Thomson | $1 | $1 | -0 | -$3 | |
| Horacio Ramirez | -$16 | $1 | -17 | $1 | |
| Joe Saunders | $2 | $1 | +1 | $4 | |
| Edwin Jackson | -$19 | $1 | -20 | -$7 | |
| Bruce Chen | -$2 | $1 | -3 | -$19 | |
| Joe Kennedy | -$2 | $1 | -3 | $7 | $1 |
| Ramon Ortiz | -$1 | $1 | -2 | -$6 | $1 |
| Sidney Ponson | -$7 | $1 | -8 | -$10 | $1 |
| Jaret Wright | -$3 | $1 | -4 | $3 | |
| Casey Fossum | -$14 | $1 | -15 | -$5 | |
| Average | -$4 | $2 | -6 | -$2 | $1 |
Bannister and Silva are your big winners here, though Bannister technically should have had his bid removed by Alex, as he was sent back to Triple-A on March 28. Relatively speaking, Miguel Batista's $7 season is a huge win in this group of pitchers.
And BABG gets even more stingy, refusing to buy 14 out of these 24 pitchers at all. If the inflation isn't spent here, or in the $4-6 group, where is it going?
Try $40 for D-Mat.
Or $25 for Rich Harden.
Or $18 on Jeremy Sowers.
The market will spend it's $85 or so a team on pitchers. It just refuses to give a penny more than it has to to these pitchers.
BABG looks at these clowns at the bottom of the pile and figures that it's six of one, half dozen of the other. There's a minor squabble for Robinson Tejeda, but otherwise conventional wisdom says that don't pay more than $2 for John Danks, since Jeremy Guthrie is sitting out there in the free agent pool, even if we don't know he's going to turn into Jeremy Guthrie.
But, getting back to sas4's statement, I'm not certain that it's wise to wait for the Edwin Jacksons and Miguel Batistas of the world. If your league is taking all of these pitchers and insisting on paying them only $1 or $2, there's your edge. Spend $3 on one or two of the guys Alex has ranked between $4-6 and hope that one turns into James Shields.
It worked for me this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment