Bargains and Busts: 2012 N.L. Hitters

With the exodus of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to the American League, conventional wisdom was that the top hitter prices in the National League would shoot up. But - for the fourth year in a row - the prices dropped a little.

Top 10 Salaries, 2012 N.L. Hitters

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Joey Votto	$21	42	-20	44	40	41	41	$34
2	Matt Kemp	$24	41	-17	42	40	42	42	$53
3	Ryan Braun	$45	40	5	43	38	39	41	$47
4	Carlos Gonzalez	$30	40	-9	43	37	39	38	$33
5	Justin Upton	$26	37	-12	36	38	38	37	$35
6	Troy Tulowitzki	$9	36	-28	35	37	37	36	$32
7	Hanley Ramirez	$25	36	-11	34	39	36	36	$16
8	Andrew McCutchen	$39	33	6	32	33	34	34	$28
9	Giancarlo Stanton	$27	33	-6	34	33	32	27	$25
10	Matt Holliday	$29	32	-3	30	33	32	31	$24
	Average	$28	37	-10	37	37	37	36	$33

Once again, CBS was the culprit. The average salary for LABR and Tout ticked up slightly from 2011: from $36 to $37 per player. CBS plummeted: from $42 down to $37.

The same thing happened in the American League but the way it happened was different. The prices on the top four hitters in the A.L. were actually lower for CBS than they were for LABR/Tout. In the N.L., CBS pushed on Votto, Kemp, Braun, and Gonzalez before quickly deciding to scale back.

For the second year in a row, it could be argued that the N.L. experts on the whole didn't scale back enough. These hitters received a $4 raise per player from their prior earnings, despite healthy pay cuts for Kemp and Braun.

Some of this phenomenon is caused by the fewer appealing options among everyday National Leaguers. The DH has something to do with this, but a there's a belief among experts that the last two years have seen an erosion of stats among the non-elite hitters in the Senior Circuit.

Top 10 Hitters, National League, 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Ryan Braun	$45	40	5	43	38	39	41	$47
2	Andrew McCutchen	$39	33	6	32	33	34	34	$28
3	Chase Headley	$33	16	17	13	15	20	18	$15
4	Aaron Hill	$31	14	16	13	15	15	12	$16
5	Aramis Ramirez	$31	23	8	21	24	23	24	$28
6	Buster Posey	$31	19	11	20	19	19	22	$6
7	David Wright	$31	27	4	29	30	22	28	$17
8	Carlos Gonzalez	$30	40	-9	43	37	39	38	$33
9	Jose Reyes	$29	30	-1	30	29	30	32	$36
10	Matt Holliday	$29	32	-3	30	33	32	31	$24
	Average	$33	27	5	27	27	27	28	$25

The earnings for the 10 best National League hitters plummeted last year. The $33 average earnings was the lowest total since I shifted from 4x4 to 5x5 in 2009, and this was a severe drop from 2011's $38 per player. Some of this drop was due to Braun and Kemp earning a combined $100 in 2011. While it was mostly Kemp who didn't live up to his end of the bargain, historically it is highly unlikely that hitters who earn $40+ keep it up the following year.

This is the first time since 2009 that 10 N.L. hitters failed to earn $30 or more. This made me wonder, where did those earnings "go"? Did they distribute evenly across the board, or did someone else benefit?

Earnings by "Tier": 2012 versus 2011

	2012	2011	+/-
Tier 1	$412	$467	-$55
Tier 2	$340	$346	-$7
Tier 3	$312	$280	$32
Tier 4	$269	$235	$34
Tier 5	$227	$206	$21
Tier 6	$187	$174	$12
Tier 7	$151	$152	-$1
Tier 8	$127	$129	-$2
Tier 9	$97	$105	-$8
Tier 10	$72	$79	-$7
Tier 11	$47	$59	-$12
Tier 12	$29	$35	-$6
Tier 13	$8	$5	$2
Tier 14	-$9	-$5	-$4

And the answer is: someone else.

While the best hitters weren't quite as good last year, it was the above average hitters (Tiers 3-6) that outperformed their 2011 counterparts.  The market was right to be wary about the drop off in talent in the National League last year.

That's hindsight talking, though. In the real world, there was plenty of value at the bottom, even if we couldn't see it coming in late March.

Top 10 Profits, N.L. Hitters 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Norichika Aoki	$25	1	23	1	3		4
2	Carlos Gomez	$25	3	22	1	4	3	4	$10
3	Tyler Colvin	$20	1	20	1	1		3	-$1
4	Juan Pierre	$21	3	19	1	1	6	11	$20
5	Bryce Harper	$24	6	19	5	8	4	6
6	Chase Headley	$33	16	17	13	15	20	18	$15
7	Everth Cabrera	$17	0	17			1	R3	$0
8	Aaron Hill	$31	14	16	13	15	15	12	$16
9	Todd Frazier	$17	0	16			1	R2	$4
10	Jordan Pacheco	$17	2	15	1		4	5	$3
	Average	$23	5	18	4	5	5	6	$7

There is always talent floating around at the bottom; we just don't know what "trash" in the end game is going to become treasure.

This was more apparent last year than in any recent season. Seven of the 10 best bargains went for $3 or less and four had an average salary of $1 or less. Some of the guys we were wringing our hands about turned out to be pretty damn special.

If the Stars were OK, and some of the scrubs were special, where should we have been cautious in N.L.-only leagues?

Top 10 Losses, N.L. Hitters 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Troy Tulowitzki	$9	36	-28	35	37	37	36	$32
2	Joey Votto	$21	42	-20	44	40	41	41	$34
3	Lance Berkman	$2	21	-18	21	21	20	21	$29
4	Matt Kemp	$24	41	-17	42	40	42	42	$53
5	Gaby Sanchez	$3	19	-15	17	20	19	20	$19
6	Dan Uggla	$14	28	-14	28	27	28	26	$20
7	Logan Morrison	$6	19	-13	19	20	18	19	$16
8	Dee Gordon	$11	23	-12	24	22	24	22	$13
9	Marlon Byrd	-$2	10	-12	7	12	12	12	$22
10	Chris Young	$9	22	-12	23	20	22	22	$22
	Average	$10	26	-16	26	26	26	26	$26

Once again, if hindsight tells us there was more value in the Tier 3-6 hitters, reality tells us that there were plenty of busts in the $19-23 cost range.

The true value of the hitters on the back end is on full display when you look at what the hitters did versus what they cost.

Earnings vs. Cost: National League Hitters 2012

	SAL	$	+/-
Tier 1	$460	$351	-109
Tier 2	$341	$263	-78
Tier 3	$283	$244	-39
Tier 4	$242	$225	-17
Tier 5	$209	$232	23
Tier 6	$166	$152	-14
Tier 7	$138	$135	-3
Tier 8	$119	$114	-5
Tier 9	$89	$123	34
Tier 10	$63	$108	46
Tier 11	$47	$73	26
Tier 12	$31	$110	79
Tier 13	$18	$85	67
Tier 14	$10	$53	43
Total	$2,216	$2,269

As it turns out, National League Roto players shouldn't have worried about where they were going to get value at the bottom of the heap. They should have worried about overspending on the hitters at the top.

Three of the 26 most expensive hitters turned a profit for their owners. The 26 most expensive hitters lost $188...or over seven dollars per player. I always argue that losing money on the top players is an acceptable loss. This is not an acceptable loss.

At the beginning of this post, I pointed out how some fantasy players were panicking over Pujols and Fielder. But the market was reacting not to them but to what happened in 2011. Check out the 2011 earnings versus the 2012 salaries in the two charts above. Instead of suspecting that the best hitters might earn less because some of the best hitters were gone, the market just kept paying and paying and paying for an inferior batch of hitters....I believe based on the assumption that the best hitters would fill up the vacuum almost entirely by themselves.

Even if they had stayed healthy, Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki weren't going to make up for the value lost to Pujols and Fielder leaving the league and Ryan Howard missing most of 2012. Unless a change in statistical context is radical, the change in valuation is typically small. A $1-2 change per player due to a change in context is more common than a $5-6 change.

My viewpoint on Pujols and Fielder leaving leagues turned out to be on the nose. The hitting context didn't change all that much. But instead of paying last year's best hitters close to last year's values, the expert market pushed the prices up to 2011 par. And for that, the expert market was bound to lose.