Bargains and Busts: 2012 A.L. Hitters

UPDATE 1/14/2013. Mike Trout's "PK" bid limit has been changed. In his final update, Peter Kreutzer had Trout at $5, not as an R1.

Seems like all have to do every year with this chart is flip some of the names around, flip some of the dollar amounts around, and then call it a day.

Top 10 Salaries A.L. Hitters 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Albert Pujols	$27	40	-13	39	41	40	40	$35
2	Miguel Cabrera	$40	39	1	39	40	39	39	$36
3	Robinson Cano	$31	36	-5	33	39	37	34	$32
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	$11	36	-25	35	36	37	36	$45
5	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	35	-16	36	36	33	38	$36
6	Jose Bautista	$16	35	-19	38	35	32	36	$34
7	Curtis Granderson	$24	32	-8	36	29	32	29	$37
8	Evan Longoria	$14	32	-19	33	33	31	31	$20
9	Dustin Pedroia	$24	32	-8	32	33	31	32	$34
10	Prince Fielder	$29	31	-2	31	32	30	33	$34
	Average	$24	35	-11	35	35	34	35	$34

However, big change last year came in the CBS column.

A.L. Salary and Earnings: CBS 2009-2012

Year	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	Tout
2012	$24	35	-11	35	35	34
2011	$24	36	-12	41	35	32
2010	$25	35	-10	38	33	32
2009	$24	36	-12	41	33	34

After three years of CBS being far ahead (probably too far ahead) of the pack on average salaries, they finally saw the light and decided to stop spending big on the top hitters.

In the American League in particular this makes a lot of sense, since the best hitters seldom earn over $40.

Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Hitters 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Mike Trout	$47	6	40	7	8	4	5	$4
2	Miguel Cabrera	$40	39	1	39	40	39	39	$36
3	Alex Rios	$33	17	16	16	18	16	18	$10
4	Josh Hamilton	$33	25	7	24	26	26	25	$26
5	Adrian Beltre	$32	29	3	30	29	29	28	$26
6	Edwin Encarnacion	$31	16	15	14	17	18	16	$17
7	Robinson Cano	$31	36	-5	33	39	37	34	$32
8	Adam Jones	$30	26	4	29	23	25	26	$24
9	Prince Fielder	$29	31	-2	31	32	30	33	$34
10	Billy Butler	$28	22	6	19	22	25	22	$22
	Average	$33	25	9	24	25	25	25	$23

Mike Trout is the outlier to end all outliers: a 20-year-old phenom who turned a $40 profit...or $10 more than the most surprising A.L. hitter in the last four years (Jose Bautista, +30, 2010). Otherwise, this is a fairly vanilla chart. Since only eight American League hitters cracked the $30 barrier last year, the average earnings are the lowest they've been since 2009 despite the presence of Trout and Cabrera.

Trout's also an outlier because of his salary. Everyone else here cost at least $16 or more and seven of the 10 hitters in the Top 10 earnings cost $22 or more. Even with Trout, this isn't a cheap group of hitters. A $25 salary was good for the 23rd most expensive hitter last year. The story is the same as it usually is; if you want a top-of-the-line hitter, you usually have to pay for it.

Top 10 Profits, A.L. Hitters 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Mike Trout	$47	6	40	7	8	4	5	$4
2	Rajai Davis	$24	5	19	5	6	3	6	$13
3	Michael Saunders	$19	0	18		1		3	($1)
4	Kyle Seager	$19	3	17	2	2	4	4	$4
5	Alex Rios	$33	17	16	16	18	16	18	$10
6	Edwin Encarnacion	$31	16	15	14	17	18	16	$17
7	Josh Reddick	$21	6	15	6	7	5	5	$8
8	David Murphy	$21	6	14	5	11	3	12	$14
9	Jeff Keppinger	$15	2	13	2	3	2	3	$9
10	Chris Davis	$21	9	12	10	7	11	9	$5
	Average	$25	7	18	7	8	7	8	$8

Trout, Rios, and Encarnacion crack both the Top 10 hitters and the Top 10 profits lists. Everyone else is a significant surprise.

However, the surprises aren't as dramatic as they have been in the past. A $12 profit on Chris Davis is the lowest profit on the 10th most profitable hitter by $2 or more from 2009-2011. The hitters at the bottom of the barrel weren't as likely to turn into gold. Without Trout, the rest of these hitters turned a tepid $15 profit per hitter.

That's still a strong number, but not nearly as strong as we've seen in years prior.

It doesn't matter if Trout is an outlier or not; in the end it all comes out in the wash.

Top 10 Losses, A.L. Hitters, 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$11	36	-25	35	36	37	36	$45
2	Brett Gardner	$2	26	-24	28	25	25	24	$25
3	Jose Bautista	$16	35	-19	38	35	32	36	$34
4	Evan Longoria	$14	32	-19	33	33	31	31	$20
5	Carl Crawford	$6	23	-17	23	23	23	19	$16
6	Peter Bourjos	$3	19	-16	19	17	22	16	$19
7	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	35	-16	36	36	33	38	$36
8	Eric Hosmer	$14	27	-13	28	25	28	26	$23
9	Mark Teixeira	$16	29	-13	29	30	29	28	$24
10	Ryan Raburn	($2)	11	-13	11	9	12	10	$11
	Average	$10	27	-18	28	27	27	26	$25

The 10 biggest losers lose just about as much money as the 10 biggest profit-makers. It has never worked out this neatly before, but for the entire player population the hitters should earn $2,100 and they get paid $2,100 (more or less). The expert leagues have been paying hitters a little bit more the last few years, but they haven't moved to the extreme position of paying $190-200 per team. So the values will always be close.

Take note of the fact that while there are a number of big-ticket items on this list, all of them return at least $10 or more back for their owners (unless you consider Gardner a big ticket item). Ellsbury is a tough pill to swallow but as weird as it sounds I'd rather have him than Raburn...particularly in an A.L.-only league where the free agent pool is dismally thin.

This always sounds odd to my new readers, but taking an $11 loss on the Top 10 hitters isn't as terrible as it sounds. Getting a $24 hitter for a big investment isn't horrible. You want to make sure you get stats, and $24 worth of stats from a hitter is good, just as long as you spend wisely elsewhere on the food chain.