Bargains and Busts: 2012 A.L. Pitchers

The most accurate prediction I might have ever made came in the final paragraph of 2011's A.L. pitcher bargain and bust article.

It's hard to predict whether or not the best pitchers will stay so far ahead of the pack. But … the volatility at the bottom of the pack will remain. Paying big bucks for premium pitchers - regardless of what the bottom looks like - will likely remain a solid proposition in 2012.

Top 10 Salaries, 2012 A.L. Pitchers 

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Justin Verlander	$39	29	10	30	29	28	33	$46
2	David Price	$36	26	10	26	27	25	28	$24
3	Jered Weaver	$32	26	7	28	23	26	29	$36
4	Felix Hernandez	$31	26	5	25	27	25	29	$23
5	CC Sabathia	$28	26	2	24	27	26	29	$29
6	Dan Haren	$14	25	-11	25	27	22	28	$31
7	Jon Lester	$9	22	-13	22	24	21	24	$20
8	Mariano Rivera	$3	22	-18	21	21	23	22	$23
9	C.J. Wilson	$17	21	-3	20	23	19	19	$27
10	James Shields	$29	20	9	21	19	20	22	$34
	Average	$24	24	0	24	25	24	26	$29

The three most expensive pitchers happened to also be the three best pitchers in the American League last year. Felix was the fifth best, Shields was seventh, and Sabathia was eighth. If you went top dollar for an ace last year, you hit the jackpot.

Or maybe you didn't. The success stories make us all warm and fuzzy inside. The guys like Haren, Lester, and Rivera make us sick to our stomachs.

But the timid nature of the expert market still makes this a great place to go and gamble. Rivera and his freakish injury aside, you're going to get something back for your trouble with any of these pitchers, and last year there was a 60/40 chance you were going to get a Top 10 guy.

Top 10 Earnings, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Justin Verlander	$39	29	10	30	29	28	33	$46
2	David Price	$36	26	10	26	27	25	28	$24
3	Jered Weaver	$32	26	7	28	23	26	29	$36
4	Fernando Rodney	$32						R3	$1
5	Felix Hernandez	$31	26	5	25	27	25	29	$23
6	Chris Sale	$30	12	18	12	13	11	13	$11
7	James Shields	$29	20	9	21	19	20	22	$34
8	CC Sabathia	$28	26	2	24	27	26	29	$29
9	Jake Peavy	$27	9	19	8	10	8	9	$6
10	Hiroki Kuroda	$27	12	15	10	14	12	14	$18
	Average	$31	21	11	18	19	18	21	$23

Rodney, Sale, Peavy, and Kuroda replace Haren, Lester, Rivera, and Wilson.

Except for Rotoman, the experts are timid little wallflowers. Including me (the only one of these pitchers I bought in an expert auction was Haren).

A $29 average salary for Justin Verlander? The dude earned $46 in 2011. $20 for James Shields? $26 for Weaver? I understand the hesitancy to spend over $30 on a pitcher, but some of these guys look like money in the bank at these prices.

Rotoman would have cleaned up in a hypothetical auction between him and the rest of the market. He comes out ahead on Verlander, Price, Weaver, Felix, Shields, CC and ties on Sale and Kuroda. He only misses out on Peavy to LABR.

Rotoman was hot last year. Not only did he get the best pitchers, he kept you away from the expensive ones that didn't pan out. Tout Wars grabs Rivera and LABR gets Wilson. Rotoman does tie on Lester while getting Haren outright.

CBS must be waiting for the pitchers on this list.

Top 10 Profits, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Rafael Soriano	$21	1	21		2		1	$3
2	Jake Peavy	$27	9	19	8	10	8	9	$6
3	Chris Sale	$30	12	18	12	13	11	13	$11
4	Jason Vargas	$21	5	16	7	2	5	3	$9
5	Matt Harrison	$23	7	16	8	6	6	7	$16
6	Tommy Milone	$17	2	15	1	2	3	5	$1
7	Wei-Yin Chen	$17	2	15	3	1	2	3
8	Jarrod Parker	$19	4	15	3	6	3	R1	$1
9	Hiroki Kuroda	$27	12	15	10	14	12	14	$18
10	Glen Perkins	$16	2	14	1	1	4		$9
	Average	$22	5	16	5	6	5	6	$7

No, not particularly. They are in front on Vargas, Harrison, and Chen, but behind on everyone else.

LABR is the aggressive buyer. They “get”  Soriano, Peavy, Sale, Parker, and Kuroda. Rotoman is left with Milone and once again with a tie on Kuroda with Tout Wars.

As typically happens, the 10 best profit makers cost less than they earned the previous year. Pitchers like Harrison, Kuroda, and Vargas all fit a certain profile. They don't strike out a ton of guys, so no one believes that they'll be able to do it two years running.

These pitchers aren't the complete bottom of the barrel. At an average salary at $5, as a group they are a cut above the super cheap endgame pitchers. Take out the two relievers in the group and they're a little more expensive. Five dollars isn't a lot to pay for a bargain, but it's not nothing.

Top 10 Losses, 2012 A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Ricky Romero	-$5	19	-24	21	19	17	21	$27
2	Sergio Santos	$0	18	-18	19	17	18	16	$17
3	Mariano Rivera	$3	22	-18	21	21	23	22	$23
4	Michael Pineda		16	-16	18	16	14	9	$19
5	Jonathan Sanchez	-$9	7	-16	9	7	6	8	$2
6	Andrew Bailey	$0	16	-16	17	15	16	3	$11
7	Ubaldo Jimenez	$0	15	-15	17	16	12	14	$5
8	John Danks	$0	13	-13	14	12	13	14	$8
9	Jon Lester	$9	22	-13	22	24	21	24	$20
10	Brandon League	$3	16	-13	16	15	17	15	$17
	Average	$0	16	-16	17	16	16	15	$15

I was tempted to keep slapping Rotoman on the back, but he has the benefit of setting his prices later than the expert auctions so he gets to avoid Pineda and Bailey almost entirely. 

The year of the exploding reliever put a lot of relief arms into this group. But the earnings profile of the group is almost identical to every prior year. They earn nothing or almost nothing and cost in the mid-teens. They're typically pitchers that get raises, and often pitchers like Jimenez or Danks that had a bad/injury riddled year and the market is trying to buy into the bounce back.

I remain a fan of being a top shelf pitcher in A.L.-only. Lester and Rivera are in the losses group, but there are more pitchers in the $15-19 range. I'd rather buy an ace and a cheap arm and hope to get lucky than buy two $15-19 pitchers. In the last three years, only three pitchers from that price range have cracked the Top 10. It seems counterintuitive, but you're more likely to score a big profit from a $20+ salaried pitcher.