For the first two posts, you are going to see a lot of numbers and not as much analysis...I have to get the numbers out for everyone to see in order to reach some final conclusions. When we reach the end, I hope that all this information will lead us to some conclusions about hitting/pitching splits, trends toward spending on pitchers versus hitters, and some practical advice on your own home league auction in this context.
To start, let's take a look at what LABR did this year. First, LABR AL 2011:
F. Hernandez | $30.00 |
J. Lester | $27.00 |
C.C. Sabathia | $26.00 |
D. Haren | $23.00 |
J. Soria | $22.00 |
M. Rivera | $22.00 |
J. Weaver | $21.00 |
J. Verlander | $21.00 |
N. Feliz | $21.00 |
J. Papelbon | $20.00 |
D. Price | $20.00 |
M. Scherzer | $19.00 |
A Bailey | $19.00 |
F. Liriano | $18.00 |
C. Perez | $18.00 |
C. Lewis | $17.00 |
M. Thornton | $17.00 |
C. Bucholz | $16.00 |
B. Morrow | $16.00 |
B. Anderson | $16.00 |
J. Nathan | $16.00 |
J. Beckett | $15.00 |
J. Danks | $15.00 |
G. Gonzalez | $15.00 |
J. Valverde | $15.00 |
J. Shields | $14.00 |
F. Francisco | $14.00 |
J. Peavy | $14.00 |
B. Matusz | $13.00 |
R. Romero | $13.00 |
E. Jackson | $13.00 |
P. Hughes | $13.00 |
J. Hellickson | $13.00 |
T. Cahill | $12.00 |
E. Santana | $12.00 |
J. McGee | $12.00 |
C.J. Wilson | $12.00 |
M. Pineda | $11.00 |
J. Lackey | $10.00 |
G. Floyd | $10.00 |
K. Gregg | $10.00 |
B. League | $10.00 |
J. Pineiro | $9.00 |
B. Cecil | $8.00 |
K. Slowey | $8.00 |
D. Braden | $8.00 |
R. Soriano | $8.00 |
A.J. Burnett | $8.00 |
R. Porcello | $8.00 |
S. Baker | $8.00 |
W. Davis | $8.00 |
B. Duensing | $8.00 |
D. Aardsma | $7.00 |
C. Pavano | $7.00 |
E. Bedard | $7.00 |
C. Sale | $7.00 |
F. Rodney | $7.00 |
J. Niemann | $6.00 |
K. Uehara | $6.00 |
S. Downs | $6.00 |
J. Masterson | $5.00 |
D. Bard | $5.00 |
C. Carrasco | $5.00 |
J. Guthrie | $5.00 |
A. Ogando | $5.00 |
D. Holland | $5.00 |
J. Vargas | $5.00 |
M. Buehrle | $4.00 |
K. Drabek | $4.00 |
F. Carmona | $4.00 |
J. Chamberlain | $4.00 |
K. Farnsworth | $4.00 |
B. Webb | $3.00 |
J. Walden | $3.00 |
J. Francis | $3.00 |
M. Capps | $3.00 |
B. Fuentes | $3.00 |
D. Matsuzaka | $3.00 |
P. Coke | $3.00 |
J. Peralta | $3.00 |
L. Hochevar | $3.00 |
I. Nova | $3.00 |
B. Penny | $3.00 |
D. O Day | $2.00 |
G. Balfour | $2.00 |
J. Duchscherer | $2.00 |
T. Hunter | $2.00 |
K. Jepsen | $2.00 |
J. Benoit | $2.00 |
M. Montgomery | $2.00 |
B. McCarthy | $2.00 |
J.P. Howell | $1.00 |
J. Arrieta | $1.00 |
M. Rzepczynski | $1.00 |
B. Jenks | $1.00 |
N. Blackburn | $1.00 |
K. Gibson | $1.00 |
D. Fister | $1.00 |
J. Outman | $1.00 |
J. Devine | $1.00 |
K. Davies | $1.00 |
J. Crain | $1.00 |
C. Breslow | $1.00 |
C. Tillman | $1.00 |
R. Harden | $1.00 |
H. Takahashi | $1.00 |
B. Bergesen | $1.00 |
B. Colon | $1.00 |
$946.00 |
I usually split my 4x4 American League teams at $175/$85, while my 5x5 teams are closer to $180/$80.
I spoke with Steve Gardner via Twitter, and he told me that the 2010 AL LABR split was 70/30. The 2009 AL LABR split was 68/32, which is closer to $177/$83. The last couple of years, then, have seen a slight shift of dollars to hitters from pitchers, amounting to about $4 per team.
How about LABR-NL? Well, before we start, remember that LABR-NL is 13 teams and auctions 10 pitchers, not 9. So we are looking at some apples and oranges here:
R. Halladay $30 | $30.00 |
Z. Greinke $28 | $28.00 |
T. Lincecum $27 | $27.00 |
C. Kershaw $25 | $25.00 |
T. Hanson $24 | $24.00 |
C. Lee $23 | $23.00 |
M. Latos $22 | $22.00 |
C. Hamels $21 | $21.00 |
Y. Gallardo $21 | $21.00 |
R. Oswalt $20 | $20.00 |
J. Johnson $20 | $20.00 |
B. Wilson $20 | $20.00 |
C. Marmol $20 | $20.00 |
U. Jimenez $19 | $19.00 |
M. Cain $19 | $19.00 |
S. Marcum $19 | $19.00 |
H. Bell $19 | $19.00 |
C. Billingsley $19 | $19.00 |
E. Volquez $18 | $18.00 |
D. Hudson $17 | $17.00 |
F. Rodriguez $17 | $17.00 |
J. Axford $16 | $16.00 |
C. Carpenter $16 | $16.00 |
T. Lilly $16 | $16.00 |
J. Sanchez $16 | $16.00 |
W. Rodriguez $15 | $15.00 |
J.J. Putz $15 | $15.00 |
J. Hanrahan $15 | $15.00 |
C. Kimbrel $14 | $14.00 |
H. Street $14 | $14.00 |
M. Bumgarner $14 | $14.00 |
T. Hudson $14 | $14.00 |
D. Storen $14 | $14.00 |
J. Broxton $14 | $14.00 |
H. Kuroda $13 | $13.00 |
R. Franklin $13 | $13.00 |
M. Garza $13 | $13.00 |
R. Nolasco $13 | $13.00 |
J. Zimmermann $13 | $13.00 |
J. Chacin $13 | $13.00 |
H. Bailey $12 | $12.00 |
R. Dempster $12 | $12.00 |
B. Lidge $12 | $12.00 |
I. Kennedy $11 | $11.00 |
L. Nunez $11 | $11.00 |
J. Cueto $11 | $11.00 |
J. Vazquez $11 | $11.00 |
T. Wood $10 | $10.00 |
A. Chapman $10 | $10.00 |
F. Cordero $10 | $10.00 |
B. Lyon $10 | $10.00 |
B. Myers $10 | $10.00 |
J. Garcia $9 | $9.00 |
J. Venters $9 | $9.00 |
M. Minor $8 | $8.00 |
A. Sanchez $8 | $8.00 |
J. Jurrjens $7 | $7.00 |
C. Zambrano $6 | $6.00 |
J. De La Rosa $6 | $6.00 |
L. Gregerson $6 | $6.00 |
J. Niese $6 | $6.00 |
H. Kuo $6 | $6.00 |
J. Blanton $5 | $5.00 |
C. Luebke $5 | $5.00 |
T. Stauffer $5 | $5.00 |
J. Happ $5 | $5.00 |
B. Norris $5 | $5.00 |
M. Pelfrey $5 | $5.00 |
D. Lowe $5 | $5.00 |
E. Meek $5 | $5.00 |
J. Garland $5 | $5.00 |
J. McDonald $5 | $5.00 |
K. McClellan $5 | $5.00 |
C. Hensley $5 | $5.00 |
C. Richard $5 | $5.00 |
T. Clippard $4 | $4.00 |
A. Cashner $4 | $4.00 |
J. Motte $4 | $4.00 |
R. Madson $4 | $4.00 |
J. Santana $4 | $4.00 |
S. Castro $4 | $4.00 |
B. Arroyo $4 | $4.00 |
A. Harang $4 | $4.00 |
C. Capuano $4 | $4.00 |
B. Zito $3 | $3.00 |
R.A. Dickey $3 | $3.00 |
C. Volstad $3 | $3.00 |
J. Westbrook $3 | $3.00 |
C. Young $3 | $3.00 |
M. Adams $3 | $3.00 |
R. Wolf $3 | $3.00 |
S. Marshall $2 | $2.00 |
K. Correia $2 | $2.00 |
M. Melancon $2 | $2.00 |
M. Leake $2 | $2.00 |
K. Jansen $2 | $2.00 |
R. Webb $2 | $2.00 |
J. Teheran $2 | $2.00 |
K. Wood $2 | $2.00 |
R. Wells $2 | $2.00 |
J. Lyles $2 | $2.00 |
R. Betancourt $2 | $2.00 |
S. Burnett $2 | $2.00 |
W. Lopez $2 | $2.00 |
J. Hammel $2 | $2.00 |
M. Lindstrom $2 | $2.00 |
R. Gorzelanny $2 | $2.00 |
E. Mujica $1 | $1.00 |
A. Heilman $1 | $1.00 |
C. Narveson $1 | $1.00 |
J. Mejia $1 | $1.00 |
B. Beachy $1 | $1.00 |
C. Silva $1 | $1.00 |
J. Parker $1 | $1.00 |
D. Hernandez $1 | $1.00 |
B. Parnell $1 | $1.00 |
M. Guerrier $1 | $1.00 |
J. Saunders $1 | $1.00 |
C. Qualls $1 | $1.00 |
J. Thatcher $1 | $1.00 |
J. Salas $1 | $1.00 |
E. Rogers $1 | $1.00 |
R. Detwiler $1 | $1.00 |
D. Gee $1 | $1.00 |
R. Lannon $1 | $1.00 |
T. Saito $1 | $1.00 |
M. Belisle $1 | $1.00 |
S. Romo $1 | $1.00 |
N. Masset $1 | $1.00 |
V. Padilla $1 | $1.00 |
$1,097.00 |
The split works out (rounded again) to $184/$76 (71/29). In 2010, the LABR-NL splits were 70/30, and in 2009 they were 69/31. In terms of ratios, this is a very slight movement toward hitter spending, as in the AL. It is interesting, by the way (and I'll do this in another post), to put the graphs one up against the other. You will be able to see that tier spending is very consistent from league to league; the ratio between AL to NL based on differences in number of teams and numbers of pitchers is fairly consistent.
Three years is a small sample size, but we do see a slight trend toward more money to hitters. I presume the theory behind this has to do with the idea, particularly in early auctions, that hitting is more predictable than hitting.
Next time, we'll see what CBS experts have been doing.
2 comments:
M&M-
I'm referring to the article that Peter wrote in the FBG re: discounting BA in order to ensure more ABs. If one buys this as a valid strategy, the end result, of course, would be adding value to the low BA guys in one's price list at the expense of those whose prices are more driven by their positive BAs. In his list of players who would gain the most if you dont count BA, what percent of these gains would you guess would be added on in pricing such players?
I like the idea of this post and the analysis to follow. Thanks.
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