shoresie enjoys my analysis, but thinks that it falls short because I don't talk about keeper leagues enough:
I agree that its useful to review the expert league prices as a tool to valuations in our own roto leagues. However, the utility is lost to a great degree by the fact they are not keeper leagues (which, I'd imagine, the large majority of us readers are participating in).
There may be a worthwhile post in trying to assess how to read the expert league prices in light of that fact. (i.e., no inflation and lower than expected pricing on prospects (though, most can't be nominated in keeper roto-leagues)
On Thursday, I took a first pass at this, using a National League home league that started with new prices in 2010. Tonight, I'll delve into my American League using freezes to try and compare keeper league prices to non-keeper league prices.
Ten Most Favored Home League A.L. Hitters, 2009-2010
# | Player | CBS | LABR | Tout | Sal | Home Adj. | $ | H+ |
1 | Mark Teahen '09 | $3 | $3 | $6 | $4 | $13 | $13 | +9 |
2 | Paul Konerko '09 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $15 | $24 | $18 | +8 |
3 | Marcus Thames '09 | $1 | $6 | $1 | $3 | $10 | $6 | +8 |
4 | Vernon Wells '10 | $18 | $17 | $15 | $17 | $24 | $24 | +7 |
5 | Delmon Young '10 | $9 | $14 | $14 | $12 | $19 | $26 | +7 |
6 | Daric Barton '10 | $3 | $4 | $2 | $9 | $16 | +6 | |
7 | Magglio Ordonez '10 | $10 | $14 | $13 | $12 | $18 | $15 | +6 |
8 | Brett Gardner '09 | $1 | $10 | $9 | $7 | $13 | $13 | +6 |
9 | Scott Rolen '09 | $2 | $7 | $5 | $5 | $10 | $14 | +6 |
10 | Milton Bradley '10 | $8 | $11 | $11 | $10 | $15 | $5 | +5 |
Average | $7 | $10 | $10 | $9 | $16 | $21 | +7 |
My American League home league keeps an average of about 10 players per team, so I had to use two years of data to match my N.L. analysis. My A.L. is also an old school 4x4 league while all of the expert leagues are 5x5. I used 5x5 for the earnings ($) column; this will have a mild impact on the hitters but a significant impact on the pitchers.
The column that needs the most explanation is the "Home Adj." column. Since comparing home league inflation prices to non-keeper league prices is like comparing bacon to Baconnaise, I took the price paid and divided by the league's overall inflation rate.
Just like in the National League, one of shoresie's assumptions falls by the wayside here. This is hardly a prospect-oriented list. Barton, Gardner and Young are the only players who are even young; many of these players are cagey veterans. It seems that the expert leagues are pricing in the decline for these veterans even if they're starting.
One advantage the home league has is timing. Their auction is the weekend after the season starts, so Wells and Young's hot starts get chased. Konerko's high bid was because he was the last 1B of any consequence on the board and two owners got into a bidding war for that reason alone.
Once again, I don't see much of a pattern here. Older players get the nod in the home league, but otherwise I don't see a trend.
Ten Least Favored Home League A.L. Hitters, 2009-2010
# | Player | CBS | LABR | Tout | Sal | Home Adj. | $ | H- |
1 | Alex Rodriguez '09 | $50 | $22 | $25 | $32 | $24 | $25 | -9 |
2 | Brandon Wood '09 | $14 | $6 | $10 | $10 | $2 | $0 | -9 |
3 | Brian Roberts '10 | $31 | $23 | $23 | $26 | $19 | $9 | -7 |
4 | Mark Teixeira '09 | $43 | $35 | $37 | $38 | $32 | $28 | -6 |
5 | Coco Crisp '10 | $11 | $12 | $10 | $11 | $6 | $19 | -5 |
6 | Sean Rodriguez '10 | $7 | $6 | $10 | $8 | $2 | $12 | -5 |
7 | Yuniesky Betancourt '09 | $10 | $9 | $8 | $9 | $4 | $5 | -5 |
8 | Mark Ellis '10 | $12 | $5 | $10 | $9 | $4 | $13 | -5 |
9 | Mark Teahen '10 | $13 | $10 | $13 | $12 | $7 | $6 | -5 |
10 | Jhonny Peralta '10 | $13 | $12 | $18 | $14 | $10 | $13 | -5 |
Average | $20 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $11 | $13 | -6 |
The CBS experts cause most of the price difference in the other direction, and a big chunk of this is A-Rod. CBS convened right before his 2009 injury, and as a result his price is much higher than it would have been.
The vast majority of the low home league prices in 2010 are on middle infielders. There was a glut of middle infield talent in the auction, and the result was that Ellis, Peralta, and S. Rodriguez slipped through. Crisp and Roberts slipped through because their injury news looked bad in early April. Crisp panned out while Roberts did not. Wood was due to an oddity; the home league's auction was held when Wood was still active but if he got sent down the team that bought him would lose him outright.
Again, though, I don't see any kind of pattern here, save for the late breaking news impacting a good chunk of the bidding.
Ten Most Favored Home League A.L. Pitchers, 2009-2010
# | Player | CBS | LABR | Tout | Sal | Home Adj. | $ | H+ |
1 | Scott Downs '09 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $7 | $8 | +6 | |
2 | Mark Buehrle '10 | $7 | $14 | $11 | $11 | $17 | $7 | +6 |
3 | Kerry Wood '09 | $19 | $18 | $19 | $19 | $24 | $11 | +5 |
4 | Jon Papelbon '10 | $23 | $21 | $25 | $23 | $28 | $17 | +5 |
5 | Trevor Cahill '09 | $7 | $2 | $7 | $7 | +5 | ||
6 | Nick Adenhart '09 | $5 | $1 | +5 | ||||
7 | Bobby Jenks '10 | $13 | $16 | $16 | $15 | $19 | $9 | +4 |
8 | Jered Weaver '10 | $18 | $12 | $15 | $15 | $19 | $29 | +4 |
9 | Brett Anderson '09 | $2 | $6 | $3 | $6 | $18 | +4 | |
10 | Joe Nathan '09 | $26 | $27 | $26 | $26 | $30 | $28 | +4 |
Average | $11 | $11 | $13 | $12 | $16 | $14 | +5 |
Here is where the 5x5 and 4x4 differences rear their ugly head. Relievers earn far more in 4x4, so it stands to reason that the home league's closer prices would be higher. I'm surprised they're not even higher, but there is a law of diminishing returns at work; that $28 bid you see up there was a $35 actual bid when you factor inflation into the equation. Downs seemed like the temp closer in Toronto at the start of the '09 campaign.
Most of the starting pitchers here didn't look like they'd make the team and then did, prompting the bids. Anderson and Cahill in particular got everyone excited by late March, and Adenhart's lone start of the 2009 showed plenty of potential. The only veteran starting pitchers here are Buehrle and Weaver. Buehrle's bid was slowly climbing when someone suddenly said $20. Then someone said $21; why I don't know. Weaver should have gone for more; in this case it looks like the CBS bidders got it right.
Ten Least Favored Home League A.L. Pitchers, 2009-2010
# | Player | CBS | LABR | Tout | Sal | Home Adj. | $ | H- |
1 | Joe Nathan '10 | $22 | $17 | $13 | $6 | -7 | ||
2 | Javier Vazquez '10 | $22 | $21 | $21 | $21 | $16 | $3 | -5 |
3 | Daisuke Matsuzaka '10 | $12 | $10 | $7 | $10 | $5 | $6 | -5 |
4 | Kerry Wood '10 | $14 | $14 | $8 | $12 | $7 | $6 | -5 |
5 | Ben Sheets '10 | $14 | $11 | $6 | $10 | $6 | $3 | -5 |
6 | Brandon Lyon '09 | $12 | $13 | $7 | $11 | $6 | $13 | -4 |
7 | Joba Chamberlain '10 | $7 | $7 | $5 | $6 | $3 | $5 | -3 |
8 | Brandon Morrow '10 | $3 | $4 | $3 | $3 | $1 | $10 | -3 |
9 | Gil Meche '10 | $4 | $5 | $3 | $4 | $2 | -$4 | -2 |
10 | Scott Downs '10 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $3 | $1 | $10 | -2 |
Average | $11 | $11 | $6 | $9 | $5 | $5 | -4 |
2010 dominates this chart. Lyon is the only pitcher from 2009 to make the cut.
There are still a lot of relievers here, something I wouldn't have expected. But bullpen roles change as the winter turns into spring, and Nathan's injury clearly had an impact on his price. Even discounting Nathan, CBS and LABR were far more optimistic about this group than Tout Wars. It turns out that Tout Wars and the home league were just about dead on here, while CBS and LABR were out to lunch.
I was happy to accommodate shoresie's request. However, comparing a keeper league to a freeze league did not reveal any patterns, at least in my opinion. League differences here are more like league preferences, and my home league didn't have any preferences that jump out based on the analysis.
1 comment:
I'd argue that the large variations actually do show a pattern:
Nomination Order.
Long winded post to follow:
If you have the history of the nomination order in both leagues, I think you'd find that when you compare all the players under $25, there will be a significant and increasing "value" slope as the auction progresses.
In general, people always allocate this value as "bad buys" and
overpaying", but this is actually disengenious and not necessarily true, it implies one of the many valuation systems is "right".
Imagine you have 3 owners in the league, each using a diffenent system. Pecota, Oliver, LABR. Assume all these systems are internally consistent (add up to the correct total $).
Imagine there is only 1 catcher position.
Now,
Here are the 3 best catchers, each system totals them at $60:
PECOTA:
Posey, Buster 20
Mccann, Brian 20
Soto, Geovany 20
Oliver:
Posey, Buster 23
Mccann, Brian 17
Soto, Geovany 20
LABR:
Posey, Buster 25
Mccann, Brian 20
Soto, Geovany 15
If Posey nominated first. He goes for $24, and LABR thinks he got a deal!
Then Soto is nominated, and he goes for 20 to PECOTA.
Then McCann is nomiated, Oliver buys him, at a price enforced $20.
So now, $64 have been spent on $60 worth of catchers.
Not one owner has done anything "wrong", and yet inflation has aleady occured at +$4 in everyone's mind.
There are two truths in every auction:
1) When the first player is purchased, 12 owners think he was over paid.
2) When the last player is purchase, it doesn't matter what the other owners think.
Find the sweet spot, after inflation INEVITABLY occurs, and stay the hell out of the first 3 rounds... Even if you "win" a player, 12 other owners think you made a mistake. And either your system is better than the rest combined, or you're wrong.
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