Michael Morse 2011

Oz wants to know about Michael Morse.

I have him at 10 from a waiver claim last year. What has to happen for him to earn that and for me to freeze him at that value?

In 5x5 last year, Morse earned $12 in a mere 266 AB. If he gets 300-350 AB or so, a $10+ season certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

The Rotisserie question for Morse revolves not around what he can do but rather how much of an opportunity he will get with the Nats this season. Morse cannot play center field, and Jayson Werth is locked in as the team's starting right fielder, so that leaves Morse and Roger Bernadina battling for time in left, along with Rick Ankiel.

Some are viewing Morse as a platoon partner with Bernadina, saying that he'll play against lefties with Bernadina on the good side of the platoon versus right-handed pitching. But Bernadina was weaker against RHP than he was against LHP, while Morse more than held his own against righties (806 OPS). Based on last year's production, Morse seems like a better option offensively than Bernadina, and Bernadina isn't exactly a hot prospect.

The two more significant issues for Morse in my opinion are his glove and his ability to hold up as a full-time player. Morse is a sub-par defensive outfielder at best (though Bernadina isn't exactly a gold glove). The Nats might be reluctant to hand Morse a full-time job for that reason alone.

The other issue is the open question of how Morse would hold up as a full-time player. His numbers were far stronger in June and July as a part-timer than they were in August and September when he was playing regularly down the stretch. Granted, a 798 OPS and nine HR and 196 plate appearances is nothing to be taken lightly, but I would expect numbers more like these, and not the 871 OPS Morse put up over the course of a full season.

All of the possible negatives aside, the more I look at Morse, the more I think I should raise my bid in preparation for Tout Wars next weekend. The competition in left is weak, he is having a solid spring, and it's not hard to envision another $12 season at a minimum if the Nationals don't acquire someone else.

Would I keep him at $10 though?

That's a tough call. Right now I would throw him back and hope to get him for a little less. The upside (20-25 HR if he does win the starting job outright) is great. However, it's difficult to find a similar scenario where a player bursts on the scene at Age 28, posts a better OPS than he ever did even in the minors, and has a long and successful career. That isn't to say it can't happen. I just wouldn't want to keep someone like Morse at $10, see him flame out, and get back nothing on my investment.