Thursday, October 28, 2010

CBS Sports Analyst League Recap Part I: Auction

Although Tout Wars was the most well known expert league I participated in this year, I was also in a second expert league: the CBS Analysts League.

You can read a recap of my auction results here. I followed up with a piece regarding my projected finish according to the CBS projections. To summarize:
my team projects out to 1st place using the CBS Sports predictions...albeit barely. I came out with 77 points out of a possible 120 points.... The team I bought projects out with 47 points on offense: four in HR, nine in RBI, 10 in stolen bases, 12 in runs, and 12 in batting average.... The pitching doesn't project as well, with only 30 projected points. I'm projected to finish with one point in wins, five in saves, three in strikeouts, 12 in ERA and nine in WHIP.
It's amazing how close I came to many of these projected totals. But first, let's see how my version of Patton $ tells the tale.

2010 Patton and Company team, CBS Sports Analyst League
CRussell Martin$7$12-5$12
CGregg Zaun$2$11$3
1BAdam LaRoche$20$164$20
2BPlacido Polanco$17$116$14
SSRafael Furcal$21$417$11
3BChipper Jones$11$14-3$15
COTodd Helton$8$13-5$15
MIBrendan Ryan$6$15$6
OFCarlos Beltran$6$19-13$18
OFMichael Bourn$26$215$21
OFCorey Hart$28$1711$18
OFRaul Ibanez$19$20-1$19
OFHunter Pence$29$218$25
UTLastings Milledge$9$54$13
PTyler Clippard$14$113$1
PKelvim Escobar
PJuan Gutierrez$4$13$2
PJ.A. Happ$6$11-5$10
PJohn Lannan-$1$1-2$2
PTed Lilly$20$155$13
PCarlos Marmol$22$184$16
PJohan Santana$20$27-7$25
PRandy Wells$6$10-4$7

This is why I run these charts. I thought I had a decent auction, but if you had told me I had walked away with $300 worth of value on Auction Day - particularly if you had told me that Beltran was going to flame out and not a single one of my players would crack $30 - I would have thought you were smoking something.

Putting aside the wisdom or stupidity of any of my individual purchases, my relative auction success both here and in Tout Wars (where I bought a team worth $293) came by going where the room took me. In Tout Wars, the prices on the top players were low so I pounced. In CBS, the prices on the top players were too high so I waited and only bought one player - Santana - over $22.

But it turns out the CBS predictions were wrong. I actually bought an 80-point team, not a 77-point team.

And a third-place team coming out of the auction.

2010 CBS Sports Analyst League "Draft" Standings
CBS White8121246101068682
CBS Mack511794459111176
Rotowire Siegrist1110910.57111123175.5
Baseball Prospectus9.5858126716971.5
Open Sports318753611121268
Rotowire Van Riper63.563117977766.5
CBS Melchior23.51531212105255.5
The Fantasy Man9.52612102251453.5
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa4742283.542339.5
Roto Experts162111134525

Each team is linked to my pre-season write-up along with the CBS projections.

The pre-season CBS projection for my team was spooky accurate. Yes, it was a little off here and there on the pitching side, but it meant that my pre-season assessments turned out to be almost dead-on. I was weak in HR and had a pretty balanced squad everywhere else on offense. My pitching was strong in ERA/WHIP but soft in wins and strikeouts. Juan Gutierrez actually worked out as a quasi-hedge closer.

So how did I do during the season? Was I able to push this team over the top? I'll take a look at that next time.

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