Friday, February 26, 2010

CBS Sports N.L. Auction: The Patton & Company Team II

Earlier this month, I wrote about how I did in the CBS Sports Analysts League auction. But Blair had more questions.
Since no "1st" place team was in the projections, I'm assuming that's you? And although you broke down your player selection, you haven't broken down your categorical strengths and weaknesses, any chance you could comment on that?
Yes, my team projects out to 1st place using the CBS Sports predictions...albeit barely. I came out with 77 points out of a possible 120 points. Using their projections, I didn't do as well as I did last year in the A.L. auction, when I projected to finish with 84 points. I also didn't do 12 points better than the next team like I did last year; I'm only projected to finish two points ahead of Open Sports.com and three ahead of The Fantasy Man.com.

The team I bought projects out with 47 points on offense: four in HR, nine in RBI, 10 in stolen bases, 12 in runs, and 12 in batting average. Rafael Furcal, Brendan Ryan and Michael Bourn all project as starters, but all are weak in the power categories. They should move the chains everywhere else (unless Ryan loses time to new acquisition Felipe Lopez), but the lack of power kept me from doing better in RBI and does depress the HR projection. I don't have a big, 40+ HR bopper on offense. Only Raul Ibanez, Adam LaRoche, Hunter Pence and Chipper Jones project to 20+ HR. However, I like the balance on offense for what it does across the board, and I like the strong BA team I've assembled. Twelve of my 14 hitters project out to a .271 batting average or higher, and I avoided players who will be the kind of big batting average drags that can sabotage your season.

The pitching doesn't project as well, with only 30 projected points. I'm projected to finish with one point in wins, five in saves, three in strikeouts, 12 in ERA and nine in WHIP. Wins have enough variability that I'm obviously hoping to beat the projection, and I'm only seven wins away from a six point jump in the projections. The strikeouts are also low, but I made a conscious decision to not chase strikeouts at the expense of ERA/WHIP, and the projections tell me that this worked. Johan Santana and Ted Lilly should carry the WHIP enough, while I don't have a pitcher who projects out over a 4.00 in ERA. I only have one closer, but besides Carlos Marmol I'm hoping that one of my relief fliers behind him gets me some saves.

I should point out that I didn't bid with the CBS projections in mind. I had my own bids in mind and figured that if I bought enough players at value or under value that I'd put together a solid team. There's room to improve, and I'm hoping I can do what I did last year in the CBS A.L. league and make some savvy/lucky pick-ups and finish higher (98 points last year in the A.L.) than the projection.

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