Thanks to Toz for posting some of the updates to today's auction. Even if he didn't fall asleep, the on-line auction runs pretty fast, so it probably would have been next to impossible for him to give a complete recap as it was moving along.
Just like last year in the American League, I didn't enter the auction with a specific strategy in mind. My goal was to adhere to fairly tight valuation and get the most value off of the board in the auction. If there were value opportunities in certain categories, though, I would adjust the way I did last year and possibly dump a category or categories if this made more sense than overpaying somewhere.
Rather than run through a blow-by-blow analysis, I think I'll look at how I did at each position.
Catchers. Russell Martin (bought at $12, my bid limit $14). Gregg Zaun ($1, $3).
Catcher is a somewhat thin position this year in the National League. There is some positional depth, but only six catchers cracked double digits in earnings. Despite his poor 681 OPS, Martin was one of those six. At $12, he's got nothing but upside. The Dodgers have no one behind him, so even if Martin is as bad as he was last year, he should play and move the chains. At Age 27, he's not washed out by any means. His BABIP was unlucky last year considering his LD%, and his HR/FB% was also low. I don't know if he'll bounce back to a $20+ season, but $15 isn't unreasonable. Zaun was the last player I bought in the auction. There's speculation that Angel Salome and/or Jon Lucroy will be up for the Brewers mid-season, but Salome's stock fell after a so-so year at AAA, while Lucroy is probably a full year away. Zaun's ancient at 39, but at $1 is fine for a second catcher and could put up another $5-7 season.
Corners: Todd Helton ($13, $15), Chipper Jones ($14, $18), Adam LaRoche ($16, $19).
Eleven first basemen went for $25 or more in the Sportsline auction, with seven of them going $3 or more over my bid price. I was a little worried that I was going to wind up with garbage at corners, but wound up with three starters who I thought were solid - if not spectacular - at their prices. Helton is never going to put up the elite numbers that he did in his prime, but he's still a hitting machine and Coors Field helps balls fall in a lot more than they would if he played anywhere else. Jones is older and a little riskier, but at this price I'm not hoping for a rebound but a repeat of last year. 17 HR/70 RBI at this price at the hot corner would be sweet. LaRoche is a relative young 'un here at 30, and is the example of a player who is a better option in Roto than he is in real life. His OPSs aren't inspiring, but he tends to earn in the high teens/low $20s and should continue to do so this year.
Middle: Rafael Furcal ($4, $15), Placido Polanco ($11, $15), Brendan Ryan ($1, $10).
This is where I wound up skimping a little bit on my offense. I like the price on Furcal, though. That bid limit is my hope that he'll go back to running somewhat this year and steal 20-25 bases, but even if he doesn't he's a guy who should play and move the chains like he did last year. Polanco should be a solid option in Philly, and the line-up will help his runs and RBI somewhat. I wouldn't expect more power just because of the park, but otherwise I think he'll be solid. Ryan, like Zaun, is one of my weak links on offense. That $10 bid limit isn't realistic, but if Ryan can steal 10-15 bases and not kill my batting average, I'll be more than OK with that.
Outfield: Carlos Beltran ($19, $22), Michael Bourn ($21, $22), Corey Hart ($17, $22), Raul Ibanez ($20, $20), Lastings Milledge ($5, $12), Hunter Pence ($21, $23).
Having spent $103 of the $175 I spent on offense here, these are probably the players who will make or break my team. Beltran is the biggest risk/reward guy. I'm using the A-Rod/Mauer principle here from last year and bidding based on 75% of a season. If I'm wrong, that's a sunk cost, but I'm hoping that the worst case is a mid-June return and that Beltran will at least break even. I wasn't high on Bourn going in, but a closer look at steals told me that I was better off pushing Bourn than paying too much for a lesser option. My goal was to buy a balanced team and not dump a category; Bourn helps accomplish that. Hart was disappointing and injured last year, but I'm hoping that the injuries go away and that he's a $20 contributor. Like LaRoche, he's a better player in Roto than real life; unless you play with OBP instead of BA, Hart's a fine player to have if he's playing. Ibanez is getting up there, but was on fire almost every month all season except for August, when he was struggling with what turned out to be a sports hernia. He'll turn 38 this year. I expect some regression to the mean, but 20-25 HR for him in CBP isn't a stretch. Milledge has a good deal of upside, and not much downside unless he completely falls off the map. Given how cheap some of the OF after him went, maybe I should have passed, but the 20/20 potential still exists. Pence might be my favorite of this group. He's earned in the $20s all three years he's been in the bigs, and is in that "Age 26 with experience" zone that John Benson used to talk about. Even if he doesn't take a step forward this year, he should be solid.
Starting Pitchers. Johan Santana ($27, $29), Ted Lilly ($15, $18), JA Happ ($11, $15), Randy Wells ($10, $12), John Lannan ($1, $6).
I feel like my rotation's a little thin for 5x5, but I like the arms I put together. Santana's my most expensive player, and someone I'm obviously counting on a lot this year. If he's healthy - which I don't think is a huge if at this point - he should return to the top five in the N.L. Lilly's a bit of a risk due to a shoulder clean-up he had in early November, but I'll take five months of Lilly at $15 over some similar options at the same price. Happ is another pitcher I might like more than I should, but I believe he'll continue to be solid in any format. While his FIP was 4.33, I saw Happ pitch enough to think of him as more of a 3.80 ERA pitcher in a worst case scenario. Wells came out of nowhere last year, but his peripheral numbers don't scream fluke, and he's another pitcher I think might settle in in the high 3s but be OK. Lannan's fine as a 5th starter...just don't expect much more than that. His home/road splits are radical; I wish I had a sixth starter so I could play match-ups more with Lannan and start him only in DC.
Bullpen: Carlos Marmol ($18, $18), Kelvim Escobar ($1, $5), Juan Gutierrez ($1, $5), Tyler Clippard ($1, $3).
I wanted two closers this year, but thought the prices for some of the top end guys were too high...and ran out of money toward the end for some of the cheaper (and riskier) options that fell through. Marmol was the 8th most expensive closer in the auction - and cheaper than some of the non-K closers like Trevor Hoffman and Ryan Franklin who went for more money. I anticipate that Marmol will hold on to the job this year, but even if he doesn't, I'm also paying for the Ks. The rest of my pen was a roll of the dice that I'd luck into a second closer later in the year. Gutierrez was solid all year except for one awful stretch in June. Aaron Heilman and Bobby Howry are lurking, but I think Gutierrez is first in line if Chad Qualls falters. Same goes for Clippard with shaky Matt Capps. Everyone is all about Drew Storen, but how many first round relievers have we seen flame out over the last 20 years? Escobar isn't a CIW but more of a fun play at $1. If he doesn't throw a pitch all year, who cares at $1? But if he's healthy, he could be a great relief option. He's always pitched well when healthy.
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