A reader (via e-mail) wanted to know what I thought of Mike Pelfrey this season.
Fangraphs had a long write-up about Pelfrey back in January that was fairly optimistic about Pelfrey's chances for success going forward. I'd recommend reading the entire article, but one of the conclusions of the piece was that Pelfrey had more sink on his fastball and if he can harness that improvement he could take a step forward in 2010.
I believe it's possible, but I am somewhat more cynical about Pelfrey in the long run.
I have a few concerns about Pelfrey. My biggest one is how much he uses his fastball. Among qualifiers, he threw a higher percentage of fastballs than any pitcher in the bigs last year (Rick Porcello was a close second). With an average speed of 92.6 MPH, it's not like Pelfrey is throwing meatballs up there, but there isn't enough movement or deception to the pitch to make it a punch-out pitch. In other words, this isn't Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson in his prime. I think that Pelfrey needs to refine/trust his secondary offerings and start throwing them more.
I do agree with Fangraphs' analysis where Pelfrey's FIP is concerned and think that he was slightly to somewhat unlucky last year. A 4.50 ERA is more likely than a 5+ this year. However, that still would make him a below Roto average pitcher.
The downside is that Pelfrey's a pitcher who might always post a worse ERA than FIP because he relies so much on the fastball. Pelfrey threw up three 8 ER+ starts last year. Take out those three clunkers and his ERA drops from a 5.03 to a 4.12. One of those clunkers was on September 12, 2009 against the Phillies. In that game, Pelfrey threw a whopping 85.5% fastballs. More telling, only six of the 94 fastballs he threw were swinging strikes. When Pelfrey's not on, his fastball is a very hittable pitch.
Can Pelfrey change his approach/turn things around in 2010? He's young enough that I wouldn't rule it out by any means, but there are enough problems in his stats profile that I'd avoid paying more than $3-4 for now. If you can play match-ups, maybe add $1-2 to his price; Pelfrey's splits were very home favorable, and the long ball hurt him a lot less at Citi Field than it did on the road last year.
2 comments:
Say hey Mike. I was comparing the prices in Rotowire for 5x5 AL or NL and found their prices consistently and significantly higher than Peter's prices in the Guide for both SPs and hitters. I cannot see people in my league paying those prices when you add in inflation. So, since I dont work my own prices other than adjustments of Peter's prices, I was wondering if you have found any other places to get more reasonable prices for a comparison? Shandler? Thank you.
The only thing that makes me wonder about Pelfrey is the new splitter he's working with. If he can refine that he could be serviceable. Otherwise he's not.
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