Sportsline N.L. Results - Baseball Prospectus

Team: Baseball Prospectus (Mark Normandin)
Year in League - 1st
Projected 2010 Finish (Sportsline Projections): 6th (tie)
The Roster
Catchers: Buster Posey $4, Ronny Paulino $3.

Corner Infield: Adrian Gonzalez $34, Ryan Zimmerman $31, Andy LaRoche $4.

Middle Infield: Hanley Ramirez $51. Akinori Iwamura $3, Emilio Bonifacio $2.

Outfield: Andrew McCutchen $25, Kyle Blanks $16, Jason Heyward $6, Ryan Church $1, Ryan Spilborghs $1, Jim Edmonds $1.

Pitchers: Mat Latos $9, Aroldis Chapman $3, Chad Billingsley $18, Jair Jurrjens $19, Ricky Nolasco $20, Homer Bailey $6, Braden Looper $1, Vicente Padilla $1, Tom Gorzelanny $1.

Reserves: Brian Bruney, Fred Lewis, Chad Tracy, Travis Ishikawa, Jeremy Affeldt, Jonny Gomes, Tyler Colvin.

Hitting/Pitching Split: $182/$78

Categorical Strengths: Home runs, Wins, strikeouts.
Categorical Weaknesses: Saves, ERA, WHIP.

Baseball Prospectus has been represented in the CBS Sports Analysts N.L.-only league since its inception in 2004, but this is Marc Normandin's first go-round (I believe) in the league. Last year, Will Carroll's BP entrant was notable for spending $179 on pitching, which is simply unheard of in Roto. He did amass 43 pitching points, but that was only the third best total in the league, and his offense (predictably) was the 2nd worst in the league.

Normandin took a different approach this year. Like Rotowire's Erik Siegrist, he dumped saves (they were the only two teams in this league to do that), however his approach on both offense and pitching was completely different.

On the offensive side, Normandin is definitely playing a stars-and-scrubs strategy. Ramirez was the most expensive player in the entire auction, and Normandin's top three offensive buys make up for about 64% of his spending on offense. His offense projects out to 38 out of a possible 60 points using the CBS Sports projections, but this counts on some fairly solid contributions from guys like Posey, Church, and Heyward. There are clearly some cheap plays to like here - Iwa at $3 is great and LaRoche at $4 could be a steal - but I can also envision several scenarios where this team flounders on offense early and never recovers. Posey and Heyward are going to need to both be up by mid-May for the BP squad if he's going to be seriously competitive on offense. I like Blanks, but feel like there's most likely zero upside at $16 in a 5x5.

On the mound, the young Billingsley/Jurrjens/Nolasco trio lead the way, with a whole lot of speculative picks rounding out the staff. Latos, Chapman and Bailey at a combined $18 put Normandin's team in a similar situation on the mound that it is on offense. These guys need to contribute early and also make positive contributions, and that seems to be asking a lot. Maybe one of these guys will break through, but as we all know the odds of all three doing it in 2010 are slim.

If some of the speculative hitters turn a profit while the top hitters perform and if Normandin's team can keep at the middle-of-the-pack in ERA/WHIP he can make a pretty hard run. But I usually see teams like this go the other way. If there are a lot of holes to fill early, that can lead to a pretty big hole early, and in a league with seven-man reserve lists and a nearly empty free agent pool, holes like that are next to impossible to climb out of.