More on (Real Life) Pitching Prospects

After my post last week on Steven Strasberg and other high profile prospect pitchers, Eugene said I could have even gone one better.

Better examples would be #1 overall pick college pitchers. David Price, Luke Hochevar, Bryan Bullington, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Ben McDonald, Andy Benes. Yes, even the college pitchers over the past 2 decades have not been what they were expected to be.

Few even had solid careers.

Talk about quibbling, Eugene! Justin Verlander was a #2 overall out of Old Dominion. Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia were high school pitchers, true, but Beckett was also a #2 overall while Sabathia was picked 20th.

Eugene's general point stands, though. Top pitching prospects aren't just high risk/low reward in Rotisserie. They're also bad news in real life.

Between 2001 and 2005, 27 pitchers were picked at #10 or higher in baseball's First-Year Player Draft. Of these, 11 have not or never pitched in the majors.

Another four pitchers have thrown 200 innings or less in the bigs. These pitchers are Phil Humber, Tim Stauffer, Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten. You can probably add these pitchers to the list of busts as well.

The 12 pitchers who have thrown 200+ innings in the bigs from this group (sorted in descending order; stats as of this morning)?

Zack Greinke (940), Justin Verlander (889), Paul Maholm (843), Jeff Francis (785), Mark Prior (657), Gavin Floyd (623), John Danks (582), Mike Pelfrey (522), Jeremy Sowers (400), Dewon Brazleton (271), Jeff Niemann (240), Ricky Romero (234).

To follow up on Eugene's assessment on college pitchers:

Zero MLB IP: High school 6, College 5.
Less than 200 MLB IP: College 4, High school 0.
Greater than 200 MLB IP: College 9, High school 3.

All of the data above tell me two things:

1) In leagues with farm systems, it's generally best not to take pitchers early.
Minor league pitchers have a lot that can go wrong between when they are drafted and when they make the bigs.

2) If you are going to take a minor league pitcher, your odds are better with a college arm.

Generally speaking, your best bet is to wait until a pitcher is at AA or, preferably, AAA before picking that pitcher up. There is simply too much fluctuation in the minor league numbers - and performances - to risk taking a power throwing 19 year old left hander who might never even pitch a day in the Majors.