As we know, there is no such thing as a sleeper anymore. While his current owner in my N.L. did not "break the bank" for Garcia, he did pay $7. And why not? A 24-year-old with plenty of hype on a good team in a decent park? Certainly makes sense to me. Little did that owner expect the tremendous numbers Garcia has put up to date.
Garcia surprised a lot of people - including John Sickels - with his 2006 minor league season, earning him a B grade. Sickels continued to stand by him, even with inconsistent results in conjunction with Garcia's elbow injury and TJ surgery. Garcia won a hard fought battle in spring training to earn the 5th starter position.
So far, in 44 IP, Garcia is holding opponents to a .199 average while posting a 1.42 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Garcia has seemingly reversed a bit of a minor league trend where lefties beat him up some...he is absolutely dominating lefties this year, holding them to a .102 average with zero home runs. There appears to be a simple explanation: Garcia has developed a pretty good cutter that he is now throwing about 25% of the time.
Some of the other interiors suggest that there will be some regression: the BABIP of .250 is inconsistent with his minor league BABIPs and with his overall stuff (though the line drive rate currently supports the BABIP). His strand rate is high, particularly with a 3.25 BB rate; while he has a solid GB/FB rate, the home run rate (3.2%) is still a little low.
In 5x5, Garcia has already earned $8.85, and, if he were to keep his current pace, he would earn $35. I've watched Garcia pitch twice now, and he looks like the guy who is consistent with his xFIP: a pitcher posting a 3.50ish ERA with solid interiors who can rack up a decent win total on a good Cardinals team. I think it is unrealistic to expect Garcia to be a $35 pitcher. If, however, you are on the wrong side of the standings this year, Garcia is certainly someone to take a look at as a piece of the puzzle for next year. If you are dumping, Garcia certainly can give you a decent return, but don't be upset if he is still on your roster in August.
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