Cateogry Optimization at the Quarter-Mile Mark

T.J. posed the following question about his team:

Is it too early to dump wins? I'm in a 10-team keeper NL-only 4x4, currently seventh (10 teams), 26.5 out of first with 38.5 points. I'm middling in all categories except saves (ninth out of 10 with 6; #2 team has 18) and wins (last with 12; tie for first with 27). My starters are good, but they aren't getting wins: (Chris) Carpenter, (Yovani) Gallardo, (Jonathan) Sanchez, (Brett) Myers, and (Kris) Medlen (temporarily). My "closers" are (Chad) Qualls (blech!) and (Jose) Contreras (temporarily).


So should I flip my starters for offense and closers? I'd backfill my staff with good middle relievers and lock in a middle-of-the-road 3.86 ERA and 1.317 WHIP. Or should I hold out and hope my starters start notching Wins and improving my ERA and WHIP, while my offense is mired in mediocrity? Thanks.

Generally speaking, dumping wins in 4x4 is a more palatable strategy than in 5x5, as the reduced number of starters do not adversely impact the strikeout category.  And, as TJ points out above, the reduced number of innings can help lock in your ERA and WHIP.

Before answering the question, the first step is figuring out where TJ is in his league.  He has one point in wins and two points in saves, meaning that he is pulling about 35.5 points in the other six categories, which TJ accurately describes as "middling"; essentially fourth to sixth place in those six categories.  I don't know the gaps in those six categories, but let's assume that no one has run away with any of those categories as of yet.

Looking at TJ's starters, I have to think that the wins are a bit of a fluke.  Carpenter is on a good team and pitching well. Gallardo struggled a little to start the season, but is coming around and plays for a decent team (though struggling at the moment, coming off being swept on a six game home stand).  Sanchez has been about as good as can be, and is on another good team.  Myers, as we know, is mired on the Astros and Medlen won't be in the rotation for long.  It seems to me that the wins will come, and the points will come with it.

TJ will need to trade a top tier starter in order to get top tier offensive talent back, and without top tier offensive talent, TJ cannot gain enough points to make any such trade worthwhile.  So you lose an ERA/WHIP anchor, along with any hope of gaining points in wins.  In other words, you lock in your 10 points of ERA/WHIP along with your one point in wins and your two points in saves (assuming the person behind you has no closers or one closer).  That amounts to a 13 point pitching staff.  You would then need 52 points just to get close to the current first place team (which has 65 points).  This looks a lot like robbing Peter but still not having enough to pay Paul, in which case they both come with fists raised to collect the principle and the vig.

Under these circumstances, I would be tempted to look at this a different way.  I might try to move both Qualls and Contreras for offense if that is where you want to make up some points. At worst, you lose one point in saves, but you keep four or five starters and let your good pitchers lower your ERA/WHIP and win games.  You can move up in pitching, and add a couple of guys on offense to grind your more quantitative stats. You could also look at picking up someone on offense and a more dependable fifth starter.

Hope this helps!