Thursday, May 20, 2010

What About Hitting Prospects?

On Tuesday, I wrote about real life pitching prospects and what a difficult road they have to make it to the bigs. Today, I'll look at hitters drafted during the same time frame (2001-2005).

Top 10 First-Year Player Draft Hitters: 2001-2005

2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Chris Burke.
2002: B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore, Drew Meyer.
2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Ian Stewart.
2004: Chris Nelson.
2005: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin.

There are some busts here to be sure. But Eugene was on point.
Jumping over to the (top picks on the) hitting side:
Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Phil Nevin, ARod, Darren Erstad, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Tim Beckham.

There are at least 3 locks for the HOF in this group and another group of all stars and MVPs. Quite a different look.

Take the hitter.
Twenty-one hitters were drafted in the Top 10 over the five year period above, with only six outright busts (I'm giving Clement the benefit of the doubt for now).

Arguments certainly can be made for how useful Delmon Young or Alex Gordon has been in Roto. However, there's no denying that both came to the majors and contributed something to their Rotisserie squads. Young earned $21 and $20 in his first two seasons, while Gordon earned $13 and $14. Obviously, these aren't superstar earnings, but if you bought Young or Gordon, at least you got something. The same can't be said for a lot of the pitchers I profiled on Tuesday.

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