Position Scarcity - A.L.

Tom asks:

Can we take a brief look at position scarcity in 4x4 leagues (preferrably AL-only)?

I ran through this exercise in retrospect at the end of last month. It's worth putting this chart up again to take another look.

2007 A.L. LABR Return on Investment (ROI)

Position	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	Runs	Runs	$	Cost	+/-
C1	437	120	12	63	2	54	.273	$10.50	$13.25	-3
C2	182	42	5	22	1	21	.231	$1.92	$2.17	-0
1B	432	115	17	65	1	58	.265	$10.92	$18.92	-8
2B	489	141	11	56	12	74	.287	$16.00	$15.58	+0
SS	520	145	12	67	12	72	.279	$15.75	$17.50	-2
3B	456	129	18	71	9	69	.282	$16.67	$18.17	-2
CO	335	87	9	44	4	43	.259	$7.33	$6.83	+1
MI	274	77	5	30	3	39	.282	$6.92	$3.75	+3
OF1	525	154	16	78	20	88	.292	$22.92	$29.25	-6
OF2	534	152	18	78	16	86	.285	$20.92	$19.50	+1
OF3	429	116	14	63	7	65	.269	$12.58	$13.33	-1
OF4	273	70	8	37	4	35	,257	$6.50	$7.08	-1
OF5	270	70	5	35	4	34	.259	$5.67	$2.83	+3
DH	297	82	14	48	3	44	.275	$9.83	$10.92	-1
Totals	5,453	1,500	164	757	98	782	.275	$164	$179	-15

Looking forward, these are the aggregate Patton 4x4 bids (you'll need to purchase his software if you want to see the bids broken out by player) adjusted to match a $3,120 salary cap.

1st Catcher: $134 total, $11.17 average per player.
2nd Catcher: $19, $1.58
1B: $197, $16.42
2B: $193, $16.08
SS: $189, $15.75
3B: $239, $19.92
CO: $69, $5.75
MI: $33, $2.75
OF1: $363, $30.25
OF2: $228, $19
OF3: $152, $12.67
OF4: $94, $7.83
OF5: $43, $3.58
DH: $147, $12.25

These data represent the Patton bids adjusted to match a $2,100/$1,020 split across a 12-team, 4x4 league. The adjustments are purely mathematical. For example, if I believe that Patton's bid for Orlando Cabrera is too low, I did not intervene. On the other hand, if the top 12 hitters get 19% of the pie and Patton was $60 short in his total bids, I'll adjust the bids of the top 12 hitters to match that same percentage of the pie. In this case, I added $3 to the top three hitters. Each grouping is a block of 12 hitters.

OK, enough of the mechanics of this exercise. What do you think of the prices?

The Patton bids align extremely closely with the 2007 LABR bids. One might argue that the align almost too well. Without even seeing the hitters in each clump, an educated guess would tell you that Patton is banking on some comebacks amongst last year's disappointing crop of 1B and taking that money from somewhere else.

And, if you look closely again, you'll see that the hitters who get cheated are the backup corner and middle infielders and the fifth outfielders.

It makes some sense. In a deep league, you want to pay for AB. Having a good feeling about Wilson Betemit isn't enough to justify a $10 price. Eric Hinske might be tearing it up in Florida, but I won't go over $2 for him, even though he could surprise us and earn $10. The profits will come on these players.

But keep in mind that the first basemen are being paid somewhat on spec. Lyle Overbay should bounce back, and Casey Kotchman, Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Garko all might improve. But they also might not.

I tend not to auction based on position scarcity. But this chart tells me that I'll probably buy or freeze one catcher and go $1 scrub on my second catcher. I'd prefer to get three solid corners and try to bury an opponent with a garbage corner infielder. Outfield looks deep; it might be a good place to make one or two of my $1-3 endgame plays.