Value by Position in 2007

Eugene Freedman has brought this point up about the CBS Sportsline expert auctions several times:

Looking at the prices for ARod, Cabrera, some of the top catchers, etc. I had to assume it continued through the outfield and not yet revealed positions. It turns out that the outfield, where there are a lot of much better than average producers came in under par and the balance came closer to normalizing.

We obviously don't know how well or poorly the American League hitters auctioned this year will do until the dust clears way down the road in October. But I did think it would be useful to look back at LABR to see how they did in 2007 based on the prices they paid versus the return they received based on price.

2007 A.L. LABR Return on Investment (ROI)

Position	AB	H	HR	RBI	SB	Runs	BA	$	Cost	+/-
C1	437	120	12	63	2	54	.273	$10.50	$13.25	-3
C2	182	42	5	22	1	21	.231	$1.92	$2.17	-0
1B	432	115	17	65	1	58	.265	$10.92	$18.92	-8
2B	489	141	11	56	12	74	.287	$16.00	$15.58	+0
SS	520	145	12	67	12	72	.279	$15.75	$17.50	-2
3B	456	129	18	71	9	69	.282	$16.67	$18.17	-2
CO	335	87	9	44	4	43	.259	$7.33	$6.83	+1
MI	274	77	5	30	3	39	.282	$6.92	$3.75	+3
OF1	525	154	16	78	20	88	.292	$22.92	$29.25	-6
OF2	534	152	18	78	16	86	.285	$20.92	$19.50	+1
OF3	429	116	14	63	7	65	.269	$12.58	$13.33	-1
OF4	273	70	8	37	4	35	.257	$6.50	$7.08	-1
OF5	270	70	5	35	4	34	.259	$5.67	$2.83	+3
DH	297	82	14	48	3	44	.275	$9.83	$10.92	-1
Totals	5,453	1,500	164	757	98	782	.275	$164	$179	-15

The chart lists the average of the 12 players auctioned at each position in the LABR auction held in March 2007. Players were listed at the position where they were auctioned, with the infrequent exception of non-DHs placed in the DH slot. In order to assign players to the DH slot, players with the lowest salaries were used. Alphabetical order was used to break other ties. For example, Rocco Baldelli ($22 in LABR) is the last OF1 while Corey Patterson ($22) is the first OF2.

One thing that immediately jumps out at me is that this group of 168 hitters stink. LABR paid $179 for them, but they only earned $164, compared to the hitters in what Alex Patton would call an "average" league. Given that the average team produces $175 worth of offensive stats in 5x5, LABR left about $130 worth of stats on the auction table compared to the average league.

The other thing that jumps out at me is that this chart seems to strongly support Eugene's thesis. Infielders offer a poor rate of return compared to outfielders. And the bargains in the outfield do seem to come at the end. Despite costing $10 less than OF1, OF2 only earns $2 less per player. And the outfielders in the bargain bin fare even better, turning a $3 profit on their owners' $3 investment, while OF4 takes a paper loss, producing $7 worth of stats at $7.

One thing to notice here, though, is that there will be early failures that we can't see yet. I'm sure that the owner who bought Adam Lind at $4 last year in LABR was patting himself on the back. And the guy who got Wily Mo Pena at $6 was probably on call to host a party at his house after the inevitable J.D. Drew injury.

I agree with Eugene that your OF bargains are customarily at the bottom of the bin. But, as you can see looking at this chart, the bargains most certainly aren't automatic. In an early auction in particular, your reward climbs with endgame picks, but your risk climbs with it proportionately.