After all these years, still not sure I agree about hitting vs. pitching inflation. In a keeper league, the amount of money that teams spend on pitching is not fixed. In other words, the 65/35, 70/30, or whatever split applies to the values, but not the total money spent.I agree with this notion. To a point.
Last year, I used the example of my keeper A.L. to illustrate how the projected inflation could change dramatically if a league doesn't live up to the hypothetical splits that Brett outlined above. If my league had stuck with a "typical" $175/$85 split per team, we would have had 8% hitting inflation and 49% pitching inflation.
It didn't work out that way, though, The "actual" inflation rates, if you split them between hitters and pitchers, were 11.9% for hitters and "only" 33.2% for pitching. In terms of dollars, the league spent $56 less on pitching than it would have if it had insisted on pushing the number up to $1,020 for the league number.
In practice, teams do stop at some point when it comes to splitting the difference between hitters and pitchers. If pitching inflation had held up on the top pitchers, Joe Nathan would have gone for $49 (actual price $45), Mariano Rivera for $48 ($37) and Francisco Rodriguez for $48 ($40). Daisuke Matsuzaka's pitching inflation price was $37, and he did go for $40. But Brett is correct that my league decided that there is a stopping point.
Of the pitchers listed above, though, only Rivera went below the league-wide inflation rate of 17%, and barely at that. The league did decide that it would pay more for pitching on the whole, just not as much as 49%.
There is an intuitive decision we have to make in every auction. If pitching is light, it's usually due to too many strong pitching freezes. Pitchers might not match the "pitching inflation rate" I'm talking about across the board, but some of them will go for too much money and you will have trouble filling in your staff if you simply apply a uniform inflation rate across the board.
Ten Best Projected Pitchers, Billy Almon Brown Graduate, 2007
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Proj. | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| JSC | 1 | Joe Nathan | $45 | $39 | -6 | BAT | GLA |
| DER | 3 | Mariano Rivera | $37 | $38 | +1 | DEW | GLA |
| BAT | 10 | Francisco Rodriguez | $40 | $38 | -2 | GLA | BEN |
| DEW | 5 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | $40 | $30 | -10 | JSC | GLA |
| JSC | 13 | Joe Borowski | $21 | $20 | -1 | DER | JIH |
| JAB | 12 | Kelvim Escobar | $22 | $19 | -3 | GLA | JIH |
| JAB | 24 | Rich Harden | $25 | $18 | -7 | QUI | BAT |
| QUI | 32 | Andy Pettitte | $17 | $18 | +1 | TOW | JSC |
| DOZ | 42 | Mark Buehrle | $14 | $17 | -3 | JIH | QUI |
| JAB | 36 | Javier Vazquez | $16 | $12 | -4 | GLA | BEN |
| Average | $28 | $25 | -3 |
These were my 10 highest projected pitchers in my A.L. freeze league last year. The "Proj." column is my projected bid multiplied by my league's overall 17% inflation rate. The Cost is what each player actually went for in the auction, and the +/- reflects how much each player went over or under that inflation rate.
Like I said above, few pitchers went over the 49% inflation rate; D-Mat is the only player in this grouping who did. At the same time, only Pettitte and Rivera are bargains using the 17% inflation rate. Everyone else shoots over it and, in some cases, well over it. If the league is only going to match the 17% inflation rate on pitchers, it had better rally quickly.
Next Ten Highest Projected Pitchers (11-20), BABG, 2007
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Proj. | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| JSC | 37 | Boof Bonser | $13 | $12 | -1 | JIH | BEN |
| JIH | 47 | Jeremy Sowers | $18 | $12 | -6 | BEN | JIH |
| DER | 51 | Jake Westbrook | $14 | $12 | -2 | BAT | QUI |
| GLA | 26 | Eric Gagne | $18 | $11 | -7 | BAT | JAB |
| QUI | 44 | Cliff Lee | $10 | $11 | +1 | DER | QUI |
| JAB | 48 | Francisco Liriano | $14 | $9 | -5 | GLA | JIH |
| BEN | 79 | Al Reyes | $10 | $9 | -1 | BAT | JAB |
| QUI | 56 | Kei Igawa | $15 | $8 | -7 | JIH | COP |
| DEW | 77 | Brandon McCarthy | $9 | $8 | -1 | JIH | BAT |
| DOZ | 66 | Paul Byrd | $4 | $7 | +3 | QUI | DEW |
| Average | $13 | $10 | -3 |
I should have included the raw, non-inflated values in this chart but didn't. They're worth reviewing, because this speaks directly to Brett's point.
My 10 best projected pitchers in the auction had non-inflation bid limits of $209 and went for $277. The inflation on these pitchers was 32.5%.
My next 10 best projected pitchers had non-inflation bid limits of $84 and went for $125. The inflation on these pitchers was 48.9%. Inflation on these 10 pitchers actually DID match the league-wide pitching inflation rate.
So the answer to Brett's statement is that no, there isn't separate hitting and pitching inflation. Except when there is.
On the most expensive pitchers, teams will not chase most of them all the way to their inflation limit. A $48 buy of Mariano Rivera cripples your ability to buy a pitching staff. You'll stop in the high $30s or low $40s.
In the middle, though, some teams will chase some pitchers to their pitching inflation price. Intuitively, these teams know they need a pitching staff, and would rather roll the dice on an $18 Jeremy Sowers or a $16 Javier Vazquez and pay more than the league-wide inflation rate.
At the bottom, there is enough variability that, once again, the inflation will stop. You will still be able to get a $2 or $3 pitcher on your sheet for $2 or $3.
Returning back to the post that started all of this, I would argue that you have to know your league. If your league is like Brett's, and inflation will be applied in a linear manner in your auction, then apply it in a linear manner to your freezes. If someone offers you a $10 Alex Gordon for your $10 Dustin McGowan, make the trade if you think Gordon's is worth more.
However, I'm willing to bet that you'll think twice if the value of the pitchers frozen in your league is greater than the value of the hitters frozen. Regardless of how the bids shake out, it will be harder for you to buy pitching at your auction. And trading that $10 McGowan for that $10 Gordon is something you won't do.
And you should reflect this in your pre-freeze trading values.
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