Sunday, March 09, 2008

CBS Sportsline N.L.: Relievers

Well, hopefully, the delay in getting the relievers on the board has created that sense of drama....well, never mind.

I will admit that most of my experience is with 4x4 keeper leagues, and, as a result, I may have slightly overvalued closers (more on this in the analysis).

Thirty-two relievers total were auctioned; some of these buys are attributable to closer jobs being in flux. For example, Brian Wilson and Brad Hennessey; Eric Gagne and Derrick Turnbow; Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom and Taylor Tankersley; and Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry and Carlos Marmol. Other non-closers are CIWs and injury hedges: Jonathan Broxton, Tom Gordon, Jon Rauch, Luis Ayala, Heath Bell, Kevin Correia and David Weathers.

Why only 32 relievers you ask? Well, the simple fact is that, while there are qualitative statistics in 5x5, the pitching side still has accumulated stats like the offense. Wins, Saves and Strikeouts all accumulate and, save your closers and top tier set up men, those categories accumulate faster with starters. Moreover, the negative value of a poor ERA/Ratio is offset by a large number of innings, thereby making a 6th and 7th starter more attractive than a non-closer reliever.

The devaluation of the closer was seen clearly in this 5x5 auction. Three closers went for over $20: Jose Valverde, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. Everyone else went in the $10s, except Gregg, Tony Pena/Brandon Lyon and Wilson. Pena/Lyon went for a combined $8.

My mistake was locking up closers too early. While I consider Saito at $21 and Francisco Cordero at $19 bargains, a quick scan of the other closers indicates I might have been better off waiting. In fact, I called closers in almost every round at the start, as my intention was to dump the category. Nonetheless, Rafael Soriano at $14, Brad Lidge at $12, Matt Capps at $12, and Pena or Lyon would have been better bargains.

Later today, I will post a final analysis of the auction, including the hitter/pitcher splits.

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