I had meant to get to this sooner, but I always try to give priority to reader questions, and those have increased significantly from last year to this. Of course, that's a good thing, so keep those questions coming.
I've had a dialog with my readers about bid limits versus instinct earlier this month. These insticts also apply when you're working on your freeze lists and trying to put together the best team possible going into your auction. It isn't enough to simply try and acquire value without being aware of what's out in the free agent pool and, more importantly, how you'll be able to auction into your own strengths and weaknesses.
Team A entered this winter a moderate favorite. He dumped early last year, but reaped the rewards of a strong freeze list, which included the following players (A.L. only, 4x4, 12 teams):
C John Buck $3 S1, C Kelly Shoppach $2 S1, 1B Ben Broussard $3 S1, SS Yuniesky Betancourt $13 S1, 3B Evan Longoria (farm), OF Travis Buck $8 S1, OF Franklin Gutierrez $10 S1, OF/1B Marcus Thames $3 O, DH Billy Butler $10 S1, SP Jon Garland $10 S1, SP Francisco Liriano $14 S1, SP James Shields $3 S1, MR Justin Speier $1 O, CL J.J. Putz $1 O, CL Huston Street $11 L2.
It looked to me like a strong team with a heavy emphasis on youth. I wasn't high on all of these players, but Putz, Street, and Shields alone gave Team A a great deal of value on the pitching side, and the core of young hitters (Longoria, Buck, Gutierrez and Butler) gave A a nice group to build around, and possibly guys to dump later.
Instead of simply waiting for the dump deals, though, Team A decided to address his needs before the auction by making the following trades.
1) 12/19 Traded Longoria and Shoppach for Josh Beckett ($31 O).
I thought A gave up too much of a future in Longoria for just Beckett, but with Johan Santana and Dan Haren moving to the N.L., Beckett is a bonafide ace who will come $5-7 cheaper than Erik Bedard and Roy Halladay in a thin pitching market.
2) 12/21 Traded Matt Clement ($1 S1), Gutierrez, Speier, and two minor league picks for Jered Weaver ($10 O).
Another move to solidify what is now an extremely strong pitching staff.
3) 1/10 Traded T. Buck, Betancourt, and minor league pick for Robinson Cano ($17 L1).
Again, conventional wisdom in our league would advise against trading a somewhat undervalued Buck for a player in the last year of his contract. But Cano is the best 2B on the market in a thin 2B market, and locks the position up undervalue.
4) 3/13 Traded J. Buck, Liriano, and Thames for Chone Figgins ($12 L1).
Trading Liriano and two throw-ins for Figgins locks up cheap speed before the auction. Once again, some owners would have held on to Liriano and hoped for a dump deal later, but getting Figgins' 50 SB before the auction and staying out of the Carl Crawford bidding wars is a good move.
5) Traded Garland and minor league pick for Akinori Iwamura ($15 S1).
6) Traded Butler for Phil Hughes ($10 S1).
I'm not a huge fan of either of these moves, but it fits in with this team's roster, which now looks like this:
1B Ben Broussard ($3 S1), 2B Robinson Cano ($17 L1), 3B Akinori Iwamura ($15 S1), CO Chone Figgins ($12 L1), SP Josh Beckett ($31 O), SP Phil Hughes ($10 S1), SP James Shields ($3 S1), SP Jered Weaver ($10 O), CL J.J. Putz ($11 L3), CL Huston Street ($11 L3).
By trimming some of the more marginal players off of his roster like Thames and J. Buck, Team A was able to make marked improvement across the board. Iwamura is 2B eligible if he gets three games in there before our auction next Saturday, so will slide to another tough-to-fill MI position. Going in with four starting pitchers of this caliber and two closers allows Team A to budget all of his remaining dollars toward offense.
In a vacuum, some of these trades might not have made sense, and it remains to be seen if dealing Longoria, Liriano, or T. Buck will hurt later if Team A needs dump chips. But Team A saw multiple opportunities to put himself into a stronger position going into his auction and took them. Having chips to dump later is great. Getting a $12 Figgins and a $31 Beckett and staying out of the price wars for Crawford, Bedard or Halladay might mean that he won't need those dump chips after all.
8 comments:
Hi Mike,
I came across you website 2 years ago in my rookie season of Roto baseball. Needless to say my first season I came dead last, but after learning more about the strategy that goes into Roto I was able to finish 3rd in our 11 team 5x5 AL only last year. Unfortunately, my freeze list was very short this year, and so I decided to try category optimization but then I took it a little further and decided to invest only 47 bucks into my pitching staff. By doing this I was able to buy strong enough hitters to win all 5 batting categories. My question is have you ever heard of dumping ERA and WHIP as a strategy? The way pitching is so unreliable I wouldn't be surprised if I grab a few points out of ERA and WHIP anyways. I think to make this work I should have invested in 2 closers so I might have some trades to make - as it sits now I have 9 SP in my lineup and 3 setup men in waiting should their closer falter.
I had my NL-only (keeper) auction today, and I was hoping you could take a look at my roster and let me know your thoughts. If you think it's solid, you get all the credit. Because of your advice over the last month or so, I felt much more confident (and competent) going into my first auction.
I'm going with a four-starter staff, with MRs and a closer. We have holds and W-L as categories in this 6X6. We also count D+T.
C - Brian McCann, Javier Valentin
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Kelly Johnson
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Hanley Ramirez
MI - Ronnie Belliard
OF - Carlos Beltran
OF - Eric Byrnes
OF - Randy Winn
OF - Moises Alou
UT - Tad Iguchi
SP - Rich Hill
SP - Matt Cain
SP - Greg Maddux
SP - Justin Germano
CL - Manny Corpas
MR - Jon Broxton
MR - Tony Pena
MR - Peter Moylan
MR - Pedro Feliciano
MR - Cla Meredith
BN - Alejandro De Aza
BN - Craig Counsell
BN - Luis Ayala
BN - Kyle McClellan
BN - Taylor Tankersley
BN - Matt Wise
BN - Tyker Colvin
BN - Ross Detwiler
BN - Chris Volstad
BN - Neil Walker
CI is Jose A. Bautista.
How many teams in your league, anonymous?
Twelve.
You recommended that I go for the $1 bench and maximize ABs from my starters. Looking at my team, I think you were right. Since De Aza is injured right now (as is Alou), I dropped Colvin today and added Marlon Anderson.
Looks like there won't be a bidding war for Crawford after all -- he was frozen at $50.
I like your offense a lot. It looks like you're going heavy on the holds and light on the starting pitchers. I don't know if you were planning to dump wins or not but, if you are, dropping Germano or reserving him/playing matchups might be the way to go at the start.
I was thinking of spot-starting Germano.
I went with four SP because we're not a league that counts wins. We count wins, minus losses, so someone with a pitching staff that went 47-30 gets more points that a staff that finishes 113-111.
We have a minimum 1,200 IP, so that's why I pulled a fourth starter.
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