I have a category optimization question for you. 12 teams, NL-only, $260, 4x4. I came in third last year (not enough offense) and look to be mediocre this year heading into Roster Freeze Day, based on my projections for the league's freezes. Inflation is about 30%. There's one juggernaut, two other solid teams, and a bunch of us swimming around. If I go for the usual team, my freezes will be:I don't know what the other freeze lists look like, so I can't recommend whether or not you should optimize categories based on your league. However, you're right that your team will be mediocre if you simply adhere to 30% inflation; you project out to a $266 team if you do that.
Hudson, $15 (value $19), Reyes, $47 ($45), Rollins, $37 ($38), Milledge, $6 ($12), Jenkins, $5 ($14), Saito, $25 ($34).
I also have, but don't plan on keeping, Chipper (salary $26), Bourn ($15), Howry ($5), and Maddux ($12). I have steals but very little else.
Is there a way to optimize into six or seven categories with this team? If so, which of these guys should I be looking to deal for guys who could help me? Santana, Peavy, C. Cordero, Wagner, Webb, Oswalt, Zambrano and Haren are the only ones of the top twenty or so pitchers I expect to be available.
Given your team, your best bet probably would be our old friend The Sweeney Plan (dumping power for those you new to the blog). You'll definitely want to hang on to Michael Bourn and try to move Jenkins and maybe Milledge for pitching, batting average, or speed (in that order). You could hang on to Milledge as a dump chip and hope he doesn't hurt your average, but Jenkins you definitely would want to move ASAP.
Howry you could hang on to, but you'd probably be better off throwing him back or trading him and taking your chances with some cheaper middle relievers in the auction. Maddux could be OK; if pitching is as thin as you say it is, you'll probably need him to complete the plan.
If you kept Reyes, Rollins, Saito, Hudson and Bourn, that would leave you with $121 for 18 players. You would probably need to sink most of that money into pitching. The biggest problem with a Sweeney Plan in a freeze league is combating the inflation while also trying to buy what you need. You'd want at least four starting pitchers and a closer to make your plan work, so blowing $45 on Santana and $30 on Cordero would make it hard to fill in your staff. You're going to have to either spread the wealth on the pitching side or roll the dice on some iffier pitchers. I don't recommend that in the Sweeney, so I go back to recommending trading Jenkins and/or Milledge to acquire some of what you need undervalue prior to your auction.
If you don't do this, you're going to have a much tougher road ahead, and you might not want to Sweeney. You still need AB, and while your AB requirement is low, you probably want to start out with at least six everyday players. They cost money, and you might not have it if you don't get at least one or two more undervalued players who would fit into a Sweeney Plan.
5 comments:
Thanks. I was thinking Sweeney, but I don't think I'm going to be able to move Jenkins. No one seems to like him in our league.
It's difficult to do, but you can always throw Jenkins back. The problem, of course, is that without getting something for him that fits your plan is that you might not have enough money to get what you need to Sweeney.
One operative factor here is how many closers are available as well. I thought about a Sweeney in my 13 team NL, as I froze cheap speed and there are a few good starters available, but then I noticed there were only 4 closers available, with a couple of teams freezing two. With all of the money flying around in the auction, it is going to be impossible to buy a starter, two closers and the additional speed needed to pull off the strategy.
Just swapped Milledge and Jenkins for a $10 Harang. I'm keeping Bourn and trying Sweeney. The only 4 closers available are Wagner, C. Cordero, Gagne and Lyon, so that's going to be a tough issue. There's some empty BA and steals available, such as Furcal, Helton, Castillo, Pierre, Freel, Podsednik, and Roberts. We'll see how it goes. I'll have $111 for 17 players, so my margin of error is going to be thin.
Definitely let me know how it goes, tj.
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