Dumping ERA/WHIP

Anonymous asks:

My question is have you ever heard of dumping ERA and WHIP as a strategy? The way pitching is so unreliable I wouldn't be surprised if I grab a few points out of ERA and WHIP anyways. I think to make this work I should have invested in 2 closers so I might have some trades to make - as it sits now I have 9 SP in my lineup and 3 setup men in waiting should their closer falter.

In all the years I've played, I've only seen a team win and finish last in ERA/WHIP once, though I don't think this was by design. In fact, this team won (in 1997) despite waiving Colorado Rockies pitcher Pedro Astacio down the stretch, only to have to move hurt him, as Astacio won a number of games and actually would have brought this team out of the cellar in both ERA/WHIP.

I think. That was a long time ago.

Many years ago, an LABR participant named Larry Labadini came the closest to implementing something like this when he tried a $9 pitching strategy. The idea was that you could spend a ton of money on offense, go for $1 pitchers across the board, hope that 2-3 of your $1 pitchers worked out, and then trade for pitching in June or July with your excess offense. I don't remember how he did, but he didn't win either.

My take on this strategy is that you might be able to get lucky for the reasons you point out (pitching is generally more unpredictable than hitting) but you won't be able to win your league with it. The main reason for this is because good ERA/WHIP outings tend to lead to wins, whereas bad ERA/WHIP outings don't. You accidentally wind up dumping three categories instead of two, and a three category dump - in either 4x4 or 5x5 - is typically a loser.

If you do decide to go this route, though, I would recommend either freezing a cheap closer or two or trading for them later. Spending $35-40 in 5x5 or $50-60 in 4x4 on two closers locks a lot of money up that you won't be able to spend on hitting, and you really want to spend an obnoxious amount on hitting to make this strategy work.

Your instincts are correct about set-up relievers, particularly in 4x4. A good set-up who gets 5-6 wins and posts a solid ERA/WHIP is more reliable than a bad starter who might win 8-10 but is going to get pasted. Your goal, obviously, isn't to finish last in ERA/WHIP but to try and steal a few points in the category. These set ups will help you do that. While you won't win the wins category this way, if you can get 26 overall points in 4x4 in pitching, you can stay pretty competitive if you manage to sweep the hitting categories - a feat that's easier said than done, but not impossible if you maximize your spending on the offensive side.