Bid Limits vs. Instinct

The responses to my post about expert bid limits has probably generated some of the most passionate responses I've seen to any subject I've posted in this space.

badgermaniac, a veteran poster at the Patton & Company discussion forums, had this to say:

The hardest part of this process is figuring YOUR price relative to your league. In other words, I know what I think is the fair price for a player. But, I also know that that player will go for say, $5 more based on my league. How do MY prices figure in to figuring out the league?

I remember one year where I sat back and laughed at the overbidders, but then I was stuck with a bunch of unsexy guys with no upside. Yes, they were undervalue(d) to a point, but they also had no capacity for significant profit. I think I finished 8t

badgermaniac raises a good point. Knowing that you have a slew of "bargains" on your team doesn't do you any good if you don't buy the stats you need to win, or if you wait and wait because you don't like the prices on the top-tier players and then wind up with a group of second bananas who aren't going to do much beyond what you paid for them.

There has to be a balance between your predefined bid limits and what your head is telling you as the auction is taking place. If there are four good shortstops on your sheet, and the first one goes for $6 over your inflation bid limit, you have to decide right then and there whether you're going to perhaps pay a little bit over what you thought you might pay for one of the remaining three, or suck along with a $1-2 cheap option until something better comes along later in the year. And your decision will be tied in to how well you can do buying stats at the other 13 positions.

There's a difference between adjusting on the fly and panicking, though. If Derek Jeter is the first player called out in your league and goes for $40, that doesn't mean you should pay $37 for Michael Young. More likely, it means that Jeter is overpriced and you're better off waiting for value elsewhere. You might not get Young, Orlando Cabrera or another SS as good, but you will probably wind up with a starter, even if it isn't one of those guys.

One of the useful things about bid limits is that, if you've calculated them right, you will wind up with a complete list of bid limits that equal the amount of money there is to spend on Auction Day. And the prices will eventually come down. The pay increases have to stop at some point. If Jeter goes for $40 and Young goes for $37, you will find bargains elsewhere. And maybe you suck along with David Eckstein for $3 and build a strong outfield.

Beyond the bid limits, you'll want to track not only the plus/minus, but the money exiting the room. At some point, you'll have to buy players, even if the bargains haven't arrived yet. If you've waited for 70% of the money to fly out of the room and still have most of your money, you're going to wind up paying $20 for a $10 outfielder. Or you're going to do what badgermania did, and have a team of $12-14 players who are worth $12-14. You will want to buy 2-3 $25+ players around par who are dependable.

And these are the questions that are impossible for any "expert" to answer. We're experts of our own auctions, since every dynamic is a little different. In very competitive leagues, you will have to come close to par or to par to buy a team. How you define par is up to you. If you're more comfortable setting firm bid limits before your auction and seldom deviating, do that. But if you'd rather set prices that are flexible, then go in that direction. Either way, know that bid limits are useful and you need to start there as an accurate guideline so that your hunches in-auction aren't based on incorrect pre-auction assumptions.