Before the bargains

anonymous asks:

I've noticed in some mock auctions that the endgame is by far the most lucrative (which, I guess, is obvious given all the arguments you have put forth in past blogs). With that said, are you generally seeing owners put excellent or mediocre players up for auction in the first several rounds, hoping that third-tier players drop to cheaper prices?

It is possible that you can suck money out of the room by throwing out the strongest players early and then hoping for bargains later. However, more and more owners don't fall for this gambit; they've been burned by the savvy owner waiting them out and cleaning their clocks in the middle and later rounds. In some auctions, you have to not only wait out the bargains, but take the mild bargains early when you can get them.

Here is a look at the first round of my A.L.-only keeper auction from last year.

Round 1, Billy Almon Brown Graduate League 2007

NOM	#	Player	Cost	Proj.	+/-	Buyer	LB
JSC	1	Joe Nathan	$45	$39	-6	BAT	GLA
GLA	2	Mike Piazza	$19	$21	+2	DEW	QUI
DER	3	Mariano Rivera	$37	$38	+1	DEW	GLA
COP	4	Alex Rodriguez	$42	$44	+2	GLA	QUI
DEW	5	Daisuke Matsuzaka	$40	$30	-10	JSC	GLA
DOZ	6	Derek Jeter	$35	$35	0	DOZ	JAB
BEN	7	Paul Konerko	$32	$32	0	TOW	BEN
QUI	8	Ben Zobrist	$7	$2	-5	BAT	TOW
TOW	9	Sammy Sosa	$6	$6	0	JSC	DOZ
BAT	10	Francisco Rodriguez	$40	$38	-2	GLA	BEN
JIH	11	Bobby Abreu	$37	$38	+1	DER	JIH
JAB	12	Kelvim Escobar	$22	$19	-3	GLA	JIH
		Average (P/M Total)	$30	$29	-20

This is a look back at my auction without the benefit of hindsight (actual earnings). The "Proj." column is what these players were projected to go for (Patton bids plus or minus my personal tweaks multiplied by about a 17% inflation factor). We all know with the benefit of hindsight that Sammy Sosa turned a nice profit while Mike Piazza took a big loss. But I think it's more interesting to look at how we all thought we did back in April.

The round itself is a loss. But there almost as many players who were expected to turn a profit versus inflation (four pluses) than those who weren't (five losses). This is the beginning of a process, and owners aren't pushing players all the way up to par in the hopes of getting even bigger bargains later in the day. As a result, A-Rod isn't pushed up to his $44 inflation par bid limit (though he should have been) and Piazza looks like a possible bargain at $19.

There are two plays here, though, that are an attempt to suck money out of the room with lower end players. The Ben Zobrist play works magnificently, and Zobrist - a filler player at best who sucked at least two owners in with his two steals in week one - jumped all the way to $7. The Sosa play didn't work as well, as he went for par.

Round 2

NOM	#	Player	Cost	Proj.	+/-	Buyer	LB
JSC	13	Joe Borowski	$21	$20	-1	DER	JIH
GLA	14	Aubrey Huff	$23	$19	-4	TOW	BEN
DER	15	Carl Crawford	$50	$49	-1	GLA	JIH
COP	16	Miguel Tejada	$35	$37	+2	JIH	QUI
DEW	17	Vladimir Guerrero	$44	$44	0	JIH	JAB
DOZ	18	Garret Anderson	$17	$17	0	BEN	JSC
BEN	19	Joe Mauer	$29	$31	+2	TOW	QUI
QUI	20	Gary Sheffield	$26	$26	0	JAB	QUI
TOW	21	Richie Sexson	$26	$27	+1	DER	JSC
BAT	22	Ichiro Suzuki	$38	$40	+2	DOZ	QUI
JIH	23	David Ortiz	$38	$38	0	JAB	COP
JAB	24	Rich Harden	$25	$18	-7	QUI	BAT
		Average (P/M Total)	$31	$31	-6

The cute Sosa/Zobrist type plays don't exist in this round. People want money sucked out of the room and it is in one sense, as the league spends a $1 more per player in this round. Yet the perceived value of these players is actually better, as we think that we almost get our money back. Take out the boneheaded bid for Harden, and this round is actually profitable. Three of the four "profits" are actually huge busts, but it's hard to argue with those Mauer, Sexson, and Tejada prices back in April.

This is a quintessential Stage Three auction. Everyone knows that David Ortiz could put up a monster year, but no one's going to push him up to $40 and no one is going to let him slip for $35. He's going somewhere in between and - as it turns out - that somewhere is exactly where my inflation bid limit sat.

Round 3

NOM	#	Player	Cost	Proj.	+/-	Buyer	LB
JSC	25	Travis Hafner	$33	$34	+1	COP	JSC
GLA	26	Eric Gagne	$18	$11	-7	BAT	JAB
DER	27	Joel Pineiro	$2	$1	-1	JSC	DER
COP	28	Julio Lugo	$24	$22	-2	TOW	JAB
DEW	29	A.J. Pierzynski	$13	$13	0	JSC	JAB
DOZ	30	Manny Ramirez	$35	$35	0	JSC	COP
BEN	31	Brian Roberts	$29	$30	+1	QUI	JSC
QUI	32	Andy Pettitte	$17	$18	+1	TOW	JSC
TOW	33	Eric Chavez	$22	$20	-2	DOZ	JIH
BAT	34	Johnny Damon	$28	$30	+2	JSC	QUI
JIH	35	Jermaine Dye	$29	$30	+1	QUI	JAB
JAB	36	Javier Vazquez	$16	$12	-4	TOW	BEN
		Average (P/M Total)	$22	$21	-10

Pineiro is the only endgame type player thrown out here. He goes $1 over his recommended minimum bid, but since he was bought by Jon Papelbon's owner, this is hardly an insane bid.

The top-tier players like A-Rod and Crawford are gone, so the prices obviously drop; Manny's the last $30+ player we'll see all day. But the bargains, albeit slight, are still falling in. We see as many players on the plus side of the ledger (five) as we do minuses. Yes, there hasn't been a +3 bargain yet. But you need to spend $260, and it's better to get a +1 or +2 bargain in this type of auction and make sure you spend your dough than it is to simply wait and wait and wait.

And, if you look carefully at the team abbreviations above, you can almost hear the sweat falling off of certain brows.

Round 4

NOM	#	Player	Cost	Proj.	+/-	Buyer	LB
JSC	37	Boof Bonser	$13	$12	-1	JIH	TOW
GLA	38	Mike Cuddyer	$21	$20	-1	JAB	JSC
DER	39	Nick Swisher	$23	$24	+1	BEN	JSC
COP	40	Josh Barfield	$25	$25	0	JSC	QUI
DEW	41	Hank Blalock	$23	$17	-6	COP	JAB
DOZ	42	Mark Buehrle	$14	$17	+3	JIH	QUI
BEN	43	Luis Castillo	$18	$17	-1	BEN	TOW
QUI	44	Cliff Lee	$10	$11	-1	DER	QUI
TOW	45	Troy Glaus	$25	$20	-5	JAB	BAT
BAT	46	Adrian Beltre	$20	$21	+1	TOW	QUI
JIH	47	Jeremy Sowers	$18	$12	-6	BEN	JIH
JAB	48	Francisco Liriano	$14	$9	-5	GLA	JIH
		Average (P/M Total)	$19	$17	-19

JAB has been playing a waiting game after buying Sheffield and Ortiz at par in the second round, and now he's chasing a third baseman. He fails to overpay for Blalock so insists on overpaying for Glaus. COP, who has only bought Hafner so far, chases Blalock to $23. BEN, who was foiled on K-Rod in Round 1 and Vazquez in Round 3, has only bought Garret Anderson thus far, and chases Sowers to an illogical $18 price. The plus/minus here is only $1 lower than in Round 1, but the rate of return on a $19 buy is lower than an a $30 purchase. People have to spend their money somewhere, and here is where they come to the sad realization that it's now or never, and on players who on average just aren't as good as what was available in the beginning of the auction.

Round 5

NOM	#	Player	Cost	Proj.	+/-	Buyer	LB
JSC	49	J.D. Drew	$20	$20	0	JIH	BEN
GLA	50	Jason Varitek	$14	$14	0	QUI	JSC
DER	51	Jake Westbrook	$14	$12	-2	BAT	QUI
COP	52	Michael Young	$33	$30	-3	COP	QUI
DEW	53	Jason LaRue	$2	$2	0	BAT	DEW
DOZ	54	Esteban Loaiza	$6	$5	-1	DER	COP
BEN	55	Aaron Hill	$15	$11	-4	BEN	DER
QUI	56	Kei Igawa	$15	$8	-7	JIH	COP
TOW	57	Sean Casey	$14	$13	-1	JSC	QUI
BAT	58	Milton Bradley	$15	$17	+2	QUI	JIH
JIH	59	Alex Rios	$27	$27	0	QUI	COP
JAB	60	Brandon Inge	$10	$13	+3	QUI	JIH
		Average (P/M Total)	$15	$14	-13

Despite the falling plus/minus, keep in mind that the ROI here is slightly lower (93%) than in Round 1 (94%). You're not losing as much money, but each dollar you go above the limit on these middle of the pack players is a greater risk. D-Mat, in other words, is a better play at $40 than Igawa is at $15; your bid limit on D-Mat is 75% of his price, while Igawa's is only 53%. I don't recommend overpaying by that much for anyone, but this part of the auction is most definitely where you DON'T want to be chasing.

I could keep going, but there are about three more rounds of this before the bargains start falling. If you'd like to take a look at those bargains, please see this post.

It's not so much who you call out and how good they are. Regardless of what you do, the first-tier and second-tier players are going to get called out sooner rather than later. Just remember that you have to buy some of these players. In order for the bargains that come toward the end of an auction like this to have maximum impact you need to pick your spots and don't wind up with any big minuses in the early going. Getting a couple of $1 endgame players who were worth $4-6 last year would have been rendered meaningless if you blew the bank on Kei Igawa.