In keeper leagues, will you still push a player's price $1 to $2 above an inflated value (15 percent, 20 percent, whatever)?Almost never.
Keep in mind that inflation prices are already past par. If the inflation rate is 20% and I have Carl Crawford on my sheet with a $40 bid limit and get him for $48, I've gone $8 over his pre-inflation price. The price is "fair market value" for Crawford, but I've just jettisoned $8 worth of value off of my roster. Every dollar I go past par simply loses me more and more value.
My ideal freeze auction would see me turning a $2 inflation profit per player. Continuing to use the 20% inflation rate as an example, if I had $150 to spend on 10 players and simply bid inflation par, I'd buy only $125 worth of stats. If I had $40 of profit on my 13 freezes, this would only put me on pace to buy a $275 team if I bid inflation par, which might leave me in the top third of my league but wouldn't put me in the winner's circle.
Last year, I bought 17 players at $18 under their inflated values so I didn't reach my goal. But I did turn a perceived profit on my auction players, which kept me moving against the current of inflation (and pushed other teams into the rapids, since the $18 I "saved" was redistributed to the other 11 teams).
There are exceptions where you can or even should buy players slightly over their inflated values.
Teams with very strong freeze lists don't have to be as concerned about maintaining their freeze profits and can focus on buying the stats they need. An owner with a ton of power hitters frozen but light on speed might spend $55 on Jose Reyes to make sure that he gets the speed that he needs. Playing the value game and adding more power to an already power-laden team isn't sensible.
On the other end of the spectrum, teams with very weak freeze lists who are throwing categories overboard are in a room of their own. If you've decided you can't compete without dumping saves, for example, your bid limits are going to be higher since you've removed all of your bids for closers. The money is going to be redistributed elsewhere and you will wind up "overpaying" for players in the categories you're aggressively competing in.
A long time ago, I dumped power and paid $53 for an in-his-prime Kenny Lofton early in my auction. I was a new fish in this league, and a couple of owners openly laughed in my face for overpaying for Lofton when I already had Chuck Knoblauch frozen at $29. This was great, since it meant that almost no one saw what I was doing and didn't push me too hard on the stud starting pitchers and closers I was also chasing. The two top starters and closers I wound up buying were at par, but for me they were bargains since I was only playing for six categories.
Generally, though, you do want to avoid going over inflated values in your auction. You can do it once or maybe twice, but too many buys like this will drive your freeze values down and push you toward the middle of the pack.
2 comments:
As usual, a great post...
Which (since you talk about dumping a category) leads me to my next question: Is my pitching strategy a solid one?
I have a 1,200-innings-pitched minimum in my NL-only (W-L, holds, saves, ERA, WHIP, Ks). You know I already have Cain and Rich Hill at $5 each, as well as Corpas, Lyon, Broxton and Pena (whom I am now considering dropping in favor of Belliard or Ross at $3). I am thinking about going with three starters, two closers and seven middle relievers. I can start 10 pitchers per day.
With so many pitchers, I think I can get roughly 400 IP from Cain/Hill, plus another 170-200 from someone like Greg Maddux. That leaves me with roughly 600 IP to 630 IP to cover with seven MRs/closers -- which I think is doable. If I seem well short by the all-star break, I can always pick up a FA starter and pitch him only on advantageous days to make up for ground I lost.
I figure that I'll do well in holds, saves, ERA and WHIP. And since it's W-L, instead of wins, I have a good chance of finishing well in that category. It's also possible that I'd get two points in Ks -- though I wouldn't hold my breath.
Have you seen this done before, or is this far too risky? I know there are a million theories on pitching, but is this sound reasoning?
If I do this properly, there's a chance that I could put together a competitive staff for $65 to $67 out of an overall $271 budget. Thanks, as always.
Great site, thanks for all the insight. I am thinking of going with a Sweeney plan. It seems that you are not terribly high on this theory, but it also appears that you were sucessful executing it as noted in your post. I have a decent pitching protection list, Webb 25, Hudson 16, Gregg 2, Howry 6, Chuck James 1 and Villanueva 1 with Pelfrey a possibility at 2. I have almost no hitting other than J Upton at 10, S. Drew at 10 and Jack Wilson at 5. 13 team NL only 4 X 4. Do you think in an established league that is in a fairly moderate turnover mode, lots of expiring contracts and too high priced players thrown back in, this is a plausible scenario, given this protectionlist? Do I still go after another big starter, almost all the big guys are available, and do I add a low end closer? Thanks for all the help.
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