Friday, March 07, 2008

Dumping Categories - Two Questions

anonymous wants to know if he can dump strikeouts in his 6x6 league.

His plan is to go with three starting pitchers, carry seven relievers, compete in W-L differential, saves, holds, ERA and WHIP and throw strikeouts overboard. The one caveat is that he has a 1,200 IP requirement.

Assuming 200 IP per starter, he'd need 600 IP from his seven other pitchers, which works out to slightly over 85 IP per pitcher. Assuming about 70 IP per reliever, he'd fall about 110 IP short.

I'm not sure what the other teams in the league look like, and I always recommend assessing your freeze list versus everyone else's before dumping a category. However, if you have to throw a category overboard, I'm in favor of this plan. It's a little easier to find good innings as the season goes along, and saving your money on pitching will allow you to buy more offense or saves/holds.

Another anonymous poster asks about The Sweeney Plan.
I am thinking of going with a Sweeney plan. It seems that you are not terribly high on this theory, but it also appears that you were sucessful executing it as noted in your post. I have a decent pitching protection list, Webb 25, Hudson 16, Gregg 2, Howry 6, Chuck James 1 and Villanueva 1 with Pelfrey a possibility at 2. I have almost no hitting other than J Upton at 10, S. Drew at 10 and Jack Wilson at 5. 13 team NL only 4 X 4. Do you think in an established league that is in a fairly moderate turnover mode, lots of expiring contracts and too high priced players thrown back in, this is a plausible scenario, given this protection list? Do I still go after another big starter, almost all the big guys are available, and do I add a low end closer?
I like The Sweeney Plan in terms of the auction. It's fun and challenging at the same time. What I question in regards to it is whether or not you can win with an 80 point team, assuming you execute the plan to perfection. In my 12-team, 4x4 A.L., a 100% successful Sweeney would leave you with 74 points, which would have won the league only twice in the 12 years I've been in the league. If your league is more tightly packed top-to-bottom than this, then the Sweeney might work for you.

Again, I'd try to figure out where you stand compared to the other teams in your league to see if you need to dump two categories or if you can compete without doing so. If the turnover is high, then the inflation might be low and you might be able to compete without the Sweeney.

Based on the roster you currently have, I'd recommend against it. The hitters you have, while certainly freezes at their prices, are all batting average risks, and you will need to either trade these players or throw them back. Your pitching is solid, but the best thing to do with The Sweeney Plan is to own two high-end closers, since you also need to ace ERA/WHIP, and you cannot risk an ERA/WHIP blow up from a low-end closer. Adding a top flight starting pitcher to go with Webb would give you a strong staff, but your $1-2 fliers aren't undervalued or established enough to give me confidence that they'll give you the wins you definitively need.

I don't think a Sweeney is impossible with your roster. But I do think you'll be swimming against the current without a cheap SB guy already frozen on the cheap.

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