2012 A.L. Outfielders

Once upon a time, American League-only fantasy owners spent a big chunk of their money on their outfields. Those days are disappearing.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$11	36	-25	35	36	37	36	$45
2	Curtis Granderson	$24	32	-8	36	29	32	29	$37
3	B.J. Upton	$26	30	-5	30	28	33	20	$26
4	Desmond Jennings	$20	26	-6	26	25	27	26	$13
5	Brett Gardner	$2	26	-24	28	25	25	24	$25
6	Adam Jones	$30	26	4	29	23	25	26	$24
7	Josh Hamilton	$33	25	7	24	26	26	25	$26
8	Nelson Cruz	$21	25	-4	25	26	25	24	$21
9	Shin-Soo Choo	$25	24	1	25	23	24	24	$11
10	Alex Gordon	$24	24	0	23	23	25	22	$31
	Average	$22	27	-6	28	26	28	26	$26

The $27 average salary for the 10 most expensive outfielders in the American League is lower than it has been since I started using expert league average salaries in 2008. Perhaps this is less of an under pay and more of a course correction. The range of earnings on these hitters since 2009 (when I started using 5x5 values) is between $21-23. The market isn't getting more conservative; it's coming closer to paying these hitters what they ultimately wind up earning.

The expert market (CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars) almost always gives the most expensive hitters a raise. In 2012, A.L. outfielders got their raise reluctantly. As a group, that is. On a hitter-by-hitter basis, the market either mostly shelled out big raises or slashed prices with sizable pay cuts.

Ellsbury, Granderson, and Gordon all received pay cuts of $5 or more. All three hitters were players that had exceeded their prior career norms by a good deal and weren't expected to it again. The market's prudence looked (mostly) reasonable in late March/early April and turned out to be completely justified.

Upton, Jennings, Cruz, and Choo all received raises of $4 or more. This group was a mix of the market anticipating an injury bounce back and/or expecting an age/experience related performance spike. The results in this case were mixed. The market almost nailed Choo perfectly; it had the right idea with Jennings, but probably should have hung back on Cruz and Upton. To be fair with Upton, his early season injury did change the equation.

Ellsbury and Gardner's severe injuries were good for $49 of the $64 or so dollars lost. In fact, $72 was lost among the Top Five hitters, with every one of the five losing at least $5. The next five hitters made a modest profit of $8 total, with only Cruz losing money. So is that the key? Avoid the really big-ticket outfielders and you're golden?

Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
11	Carl Crawford	$6	23	-17	23	23	23	19	$16
12	Ichiro Suzuki	$24	23	1	23	21	24	21	$24
13	Nick Swisher	$20	19	1	20	17	21	18	$19
14	Delmon Young	$15	19	-5	20	21	17	19	$13
15	Peter Bourjos	$3	19	-16	19	17	22	16	$19
16	Coco Crisp	$23	19	4	17	19	20	20	$25
17	Nick Markakis	$16	18	-2	19	17	18	20	$21
18	Brennan Boesch	$10	18	-8	21	17	16	16	$17
19	Jeff Francoeur	$9	18	-8	19	17	17	16	$27
20	Torii Hunter	$26	17	9	16	18	18	16	$19
	Average	$15	19	-4	20	19	20	18	$20

Nope. You would have stepped in your share of misfortune with Bourjos and Crawford. 

In these two charts, most of the losses you're looking are from four of the 10 biggest A.L.-only hitter busts in 2012. These four hitters lost $82 combined. This isn't unprecedented - Ellsbury and Grady Sizemore lost $62 combined in 2010 - but it does make this group of hitters look worse than they actually were. These 20 hitters produced $368 worth of value...or 18% of the value that all of the auctioned A.L. hitters produced in 2012. Profits are important, but you need stats to win.

The only reason you would lay off of the hitters at the top is if there was more value coming later.

Next 10 (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
21	Austin Jackson	$25	17	8	17	16	18	17	$17
22	Alex Rios	$33	17	16	16	18	16	18	$10
23	Matt Joyce	$12	16	-4	16	19	13	16	$21
24	Alejandro De Aza	$22	16	7	17	15	15	13	$11
25	Josh Willingham	$24	15	9	16	14	15	16	$19
26	Yoenis Cespedes	$25	14	11	13	15	15	11
27	Ben Revere	$24	14	10	13	16	13	15	$17
28	Colby Rasmus	$13	14	-1	12	16	14	16	$11
29	Lorenzo Cain	$9	14	-5	12	13	17	11	$0
30	Denard Span	$17	13	4	14	12	13	16	$6
	Average	$20	15	5	15	15	15	15	$11

This is Exhibit A as to why you might want to lay off of some of the top outfielders. Those top guys are good, but there was a lot of talent to go around in American League outfields in 2012.

Imagine a scenario where you purchased Jackson, Joyce, and Cespedes. For your $47 in salary, you would have picked up $62 in stats.

This is cherry picking, of course. Yet a $5 per player profit is exactly what happened. Seven of the 10 hitters in this group turned a profit.

These 30 outfielders earned $572...or 27% of what all auctioned hitters in the American League earned in 2012. They were paid more than that as a group, but the challenge is that while you want value you have to buy stats.

And unless you hit a very specific jackpot, the stats weren't there unless you spent some money.

Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Mike Trout	$47	6	40	7	8	4	5	$4
2	Alex Rios	$33	17	16	16	18	16	18	$10
3	Josh Hamilton	$33	25	7	24	26	26	25	$26
4	Adam Jones	$30	26	4	29	23	25	26	$24
5	Torii Hunter	$26	17	9	16	18	18	16	$19
6	B.J. Upton	$26	30	-5	30	28	33	20	$26
7	Yoenis Cespedes	$25	14	11	13	15	15	11
8	Austin Jackson	$25	17	8	17	16	18	17	$17
9	Shin-Soo Choo	$25	24	1	25	23	24	24	$11
10	Curtis Granderson	$24	32	-8	36	29	32	29	$37
	Average	$29	21	8	21	20	21	19	$17

Trout is an exception on so many levels. Forget about earning $47, rookies tend to struggle right out of the gate. It's great that Trout had the season that he did, but in a non-keeper, betting that he would have that season was a foolish proposition.

Were there profits at the bottom of the barrel? Certainly. Ten of the 17 American League hitters that turned a double-digit profit in 2012 were outfielders. And six of the 10 A.L. free agents that earned $10 or more were outfielders.

However, the value created by the profit-makers at the bottom of the heap doesn't mean that you only want to concentrate on those hitters. Among the most profitable outfielders, only Michael Saunders, Jonny Gomes, and Andy Dirks cost $3 or less. Everyone else cost more...including some of the outfielders highlighted on the charts above.

There's nothing wrong with hoping for a bargain. But when there is this much value to be had at the top of the charts, you had better spend at least some of your auction dollars on this portion of your roster.

I’d go one step further and argue that you can spend more on the top outfielders because there are so many cheap/free options at the position. You’re more likely to hit on a $10+ free agent in the outfield than you are anywhere else.

Conventional wisdom says to pay extra for Joe Mauer because he’s light years better than Francisco Cervelli. But if Mauer gets hurt, not only do you get nothing from Mauer but you almost definitely won’t get anything from his replacement either. When Crawford went down last year, you had some opportunities to replace him with a non-zero. Maybe you got Michael Saunders or Nate McLouth. Maybe you didn’t, but at least the opportunity was there to pick up some stats.