Tuesday, December 04, 2012

2012 N.L. Third Basemen


When fantasy baseball owners are bidding on players, do they consider values from the year before or are they more likely to spend based on how the position has historically performed?

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Third Basemen 2012
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2011
1
Ryan Zimmerman
$26
28
-2
26
28
29
29
$15
2
David Wright
$31
27
4
29
30
22
28
$17
3
Pablo Sandoval
$15
26
-11
24
28
27
27
$23
4
Aramis Ramirez
$31
23
8
21
24
23
24
$28
5
Martin Prado
$25
20
5
17
24
18
18
$15
6
Chase Headley
$33
16
17
13
15
20
18
$15
7
David Freese
$22
16
6
14
19
15
16
$14
8
Mat Gamel
$2
14
-12
13
12
17
8
($1)
9
Ty Wigginton
$8
9
-2
4
11
13
8
$13
10
Ian Stewart
$1
9
-8
9
8
11
12
($1)
Average
$19
19
0
17
20
20
19
$14

Just like in the American League, third basemen in the National League received a $5 raise per player. And, just like in the A.L., this was the biggest raise from 2011 at any position.

I'd argue that N.L. owners were going out on a further limb than their A.L. counterparts. It's a bigger leap of faith from $14 in earnings to a $19 bid than it is from $19 in earnings to a $24 bid. What was it, exactly, that the National League market was bidding on so fervently in the spring of 2012?

For the most part, a return to form.

Zimmerman ($26), Wright ($31), Prado ($24), and Stewart ($14) are all getting paid for what they did in 2010, not in 2011. Only Gamel gets the speculative "he's a starter so we should bid something on him" bid.

While Stewart and Gamel flamed out, on the whole this strategy worked like a charm. Third basemen gained $5 per player last year (or earned what they were paid) and most of those gains came from Zimmerman, Wright, and Prado.

It was a rich position on the whole, though, with some names coming out of nowhere to surprise us.

Top 10 N.L. Third Basemen 2012
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2011
1
Chase Headley
$33
16
17
13
15
20
18
$15
2
Aramis Ramirez
$31
23
8
21
24
23
24
$28
3
David Wright
$31
27
4
29
30
22
28
$17
4
Ryan Zimmerman
$26
28
-2
26
28
29
29
$15
5
Martin Prado
$25
20
5
17
24
18
18
$15
6
David Freese
$22
16
6
14
19
15
16
$14
7
Pedro Alvarez
$18
7
10
6
11
5
6
$0
8
Chris Johnson
$17
2
15
1
1
5
3
$8
9
Todd Frazier
$17
0
16
1
R2
$4
10
Chipper Jones
$16
8
8
9
7
8
6
$18
Average
$23
15
9
14
16
15
15
$13

Well, not out of nowhere. With the exception of Frazier, these guys were also blasts from the (recent) past.

It's notable that every single player here turns a profit with the exception of Zimmerman. Third base was the rare position in 2012 where there were profit and earnings to be had.

We all know how this is going to go this time around. Jones is gone, but everyone else's price is going to go up. Wright and Zimmerman should clear $30. Headley might not quite make it there, but he'll get close. And Freese and Alvarez aren't going to be cheap this time around.

It's great that these bargains came along last year, but you're probably going to want to be careful not to chase this crop of players in 2013. Since 2009, only Wright ($31 in 2010) and Mark Reynolds ($33/2009) have cracked the $30 barrier. And only Ramirez ($28/2011), Zimmerman ($26/2010; $29/2009), and Wright ($28/2009) have earned $25 or more.

If there's a Renaissance coming at third base, I'd like to see it for at least one more season before spending big bucks on it.

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