2012 N.L. Outfielders

Remember the panic that ensued when Prince Fielder followed Albert Pujols out the door and into the American League last winter? What everyone seemed to miss or failed to understand is that first base has never been where the truly big money goes in the National League.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Matt Kemp	$24	41	-17	42	40	42	42	$53
2	Ryan Braun	$45	40	5	43	38	39	41	$47
3	Carlos Gonzalez	$30	40	-9	43	37	39	38	$33
4	Justin Upton	$26	37	-12	36	38	38	37	$35
5	Andrew McCutchen	$39	33	6	32	33	34	34	$28
6	Giancarlo Stanton	$27	33	-6	34	33	32	27	$25
7	Matt Holliday	$29	32	-3	30	33	32	31	$24
8	Hunter Pence	$22	30	-9	30	28	33	33	$31
9	Michael Bourn	$28	29	-1	28	30	29	28	$36
10	Jay Bruce	$25	29	-4	27	26	34	28	$26
	Average	$29	34	-5	35	34	35	34	$34

For the fifth year in a row, the 10 most expensive N.L. outfielders were paid an average of $30 or more. This year's $34 average salary is the highest I have seen since I started tracking this in 2008, but the prior year's earnings (2011 column) are also the highest I have seen...and the first time the previous year's earnings have matched the average salary column since 2008.

In other words, these guys were worth the big bids based on what they did the previous year and - based on how fantasy owners typically overpay the top players at every position - maybe they should have been paid a little more.

It doesn't happen because owners have a limit in Stage Three on what they'll spend on the top hitters. There wasn't a chance in hell that the market was going to spend a combined $100 on Kemp and Braun and the market didn't even come close. You might argue that the smart money knows that last year's big earners don't deliver the following season. I say that's hogwash and the experts are a bunch of wimps.

$40+ Earners 2009-2011: How They Did the Next Year

Year	Player	Prior Earnings	Salary	$	+/-
2012	Matt Kemp	$53	41	$24	-28
2012	Ryan Braun	$47	40	$45	-2
2012	Jacoby Ellsbury	$45	36	$11	-34
2011	Carl Crawford	$40	40	$16	-24
2011	Carlos Gonzalez	$45	39	$33	-12
2011	Albert Pujols	$40	44	$35	-5
2011	Joey Votto	$40	40	$34	-5
2010	Albert Pujols	$45	44	$40	-5
2010	Hanley Ramirez	$41	44	$33	-7
2010	Ryan Braun	$40	41	$33	-7
	Average	$44	41	$31	-13

(Including me! I bought Pujols and Hanley in Tout Wars in 2010 but stayed away from the rest of these hitters in all my other expert leagues.)

These are the 10 players that earned $40 or more between 2009 and 2011. The "prior earnings" column is what they earned those years; the other columns reflect how the market reacted the next year...as well as the results.

These 10 hitters dropped $13 from what they earned the previous season to what they earned the next. But they still pulled in $31 a hitter. Only recent results make the big-ticket items look bad; Crawford, Ellsbury and Kemp were the only hitters that failed to deliver $30 or more in earnings the next season.

Another reason the N.L. experts spent their money is because there was a big drop off to the second tier.

Next 10 Most Expensive (11-20) N.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
11	Shane Victorino	$23	26	-3	24	25	29	27	$26
12	Andre Ethier	$22	24	-2	24	24	23	24	$17
13	Jayson Werth	$12	24	-12	21	25	25	25	$18
14	Cameron Maybin	$16	23	-7	19	22	28	23	$25
15	Drew Stubbs	$15	23	-8	22	21	26	24	$25
16	Jason Heyward	$28	22	6	19	25	22	23	$11
17	Corey Hart	$24	22	2	24	20	22	23	$24
18	Chris Young	$9	22	-12	23	20	22	22	$22
19	Logan Morrison	$6	19	-13	19	20	18	19	$16
20	Carlos Beltran	$27	18	10	17	17	19	20	$26
	Average	$18	22	-4	21	22	23	23	$21

There's only so much money sitting at the other end of the pool. But the market does an excellent job of allocating its auction dollars correctly. The top hitters get paid the same as they did the previous year (on average) while the next best hitters get a nominal raise.

There is some separation between CBS and the expert market. CBS hangs back on a few hitters, particularly Werth, Maybin, and Heyward. More than the rest of the experts, CBS on the whole decides that if they can't get the top outfielders, they don't want any outfielders.... at least not in the hypothetical battle with the rest of the experts.

Next 10 Most Expensive (21-30) N.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
21	Dexter Fowler	$21	17	3	14	19	19	14	$16
22	Jose Tabata	$6	17	-11	15	17	19	20	$13
23	Angel Pagan	$26	17	9	17	16	17	18	$22
24	Melky Cabrera	$27	16	11	15	16	18	20	$31
25	John Mayberry	$10	15	-5	15	15	14	10	$15
26	Jason Kubel	$20	14	6	10	17	16	15	$11
27	J.D. Martinez	$8	12	-5	10	14	13	13	$8
28	Will Venable	$18	12	6	11	11	14	13	$17
29	Chris Heisey	$10	12	-2	6	15	15	15	$14
30	Alex Presley	$8	12	-3	10	11	14	11	$10
	Average	$15	14	1	12	15	16	15	$16

CBS ties LABR on Mayberry. But that's it.

The $3 difference in price between CBS and LABR/Rotoman isn't trivial. CBS loses interest in these guys awfully fast. The result - if you're in a league like CBS - is plenty of bargains in their auction. In the other expert leagues, Heisey is a bad buy. In CBS, he brings back a modest profit.

CBS is a 12-team N.L.-only while LABR and Tout are 13-team N.L. formats. But should there really be a $30-40 difference on these types of hitters? I'm not sure if there should be, but typically there is. Teams in smaller leagues typically pay the guys at the top the same amount or even a little more. It's the guys in the middle that get squeezed, as I have documented in the past. 

The dollar values listed here aren't even technically "correct" for any of the leagues except for Tout Wars. The valuation formula for CBS should be adjusted for a 12-team league, and the earnings should be $260 lower across the board and $175 less league-wide for hitters. LABR is a 13-team league but because they use 14 hitters and 10 pitchers, the league "should" be spending $72 less on hitters and $72 more on pitchers league-wide. While technically correct, I'm more interested in using a uniform formula rather than rejiggering the valuation formula for each league's little quirks.

Regardless of what each league "should" or "shouldn't" do, it is what CBS does that matters. A price adjustment has to be made somewhere, and it is on the hitters in this income bracket where they make it.

The disparities between CBS and the other expert markets stand out even more when you look at the best of the best.

Top 10 N.L. Outfielders 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Ryan Braun	$45	40	5	43	38	39	41	$47
2	Andrew McCutchen	$39	33	6	32	33	34	34	$28
3	Carlos Gonzalez	$30	40	-9	43	37	39	38	$33
4	Matt Holliday	$29	32	-3	30	33	32	31	$24
5	Jason Heyward	$28	22	6	19	25	22	23	$11
6	Michael Bourn	$28	29	-1	28	30	29	28	$36
7	Giancarlo Stanton	$27	33	-6	34	33	32	27	$25
8	Melky Cabrera	$27	16	11	15	16	18	20	$31
9	Carlos Beltran	$27	18	10	17	17	19	20	$26
10	Angel Pagan	$26	17	9	17	16	17	18	$22
	Average	$31	28	3	28	28	28	28	$28

The average row once again looks like Stage Three hell. No one is paying a dime more than what these players earned last year. But in the fine print, there are definitely some different dynamics at work.

CBS: Braun. Gonzalez, Stanton

LABR: Holliday, Heyward, Bourn

Tout Wars: McCutchen (tie)

Rotoman (PK): McCutchen (tie), Cabrera, Beltran, Pagan

CBS pushes the envelope on the top hitters. They don't do it as much as they did in prior years, but on the true top of the heap they pay the big bucks. Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki also get the big bucks from CBS.

I like bargains, but if you wanted a big-time outfielder in the N.L. last year, you had to pay for it. Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki both earned $25 and cost peanuts, but they were the exceptions, not the rules.

It's too early into the free agent period this winter to know what the alleged fantasy trend is going to be. But it is clear now that the first base exodus was a false premise for Rotisserie owners. Follow the earnings. If you had done that this spring, you would not have worried about the imaginary first base crisis in the least.