Sunday, October 21, 2012

2012 CBS Sports A.L.-Only Analyst League Recap


Tout Wars isn't my only expert league. I'm also in the CBS Sports Analyst League.

This lower profile expert league has been in existence for nine years, starting out with a draft format in 2004 before switching over in 2008 to the Rotisserie-style auction format it uses today.

I've played on either the N.L. or A.L. side of the pool since the league's inception and have done considerably well, finishing first in 2004 and after a few years in the fantasy wilderness winning in 2009 (A.L.), 2010 (N.L.), and 2011 (A.L.). I suspect there's an assumption among some that CBS is easier than LABR or Tout Wars, but there's a considerable amount of overlap of expert participation in Tout Wars and CBS, so the assumption doesn't hold water. 

I've done pretty well in CBS because there are a handful of owners that are more familiar with mixed formats that have taken a very aggressive stars and scrubs approach. For example, six hitters had a salary of $40 or more in CBS in 2011 while only one hitter had a $40 salary in either LABR or Tout. The top-heavy approach allowed me to sit back, be patient and wait for the bargains to come in the middle or late rounds. The teams I have put together have lacked star power, but they have won.

I thought for sure that Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera would go for $45-50, but they both went for $39. The world had turned on its head in an instant. In the past, I have pushed my prices slightly upward for CBS so that I would make sure that I didn't leave money on the table at end. You can read about the phenomenon of higher CBS prices here if you're interested.

The result of the conservatism at the beginning of the auction is that I did buy a significant number of players early unlike most years. And, unlike most recent years in the CBS A.L. pool, my money went almost entirely to offense.

2012 Patton and Company team, CBS Sports Analyst League
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-

AVG
BID
C
Joe Mauer
$25
$16
9
$19
C
Hank Conger
$0
$1
-1
$2
1B
Paul Konerko
$21
$21
0
$25
2B
Jemile Weeks
$6
$15
-9
$17
SS
Cliff Pennington
$7
$10
-3
$11
3B
Lonnie Chisenhall
$4
$10
-6
$7
CO
Casey Kotchman
$8
$5
3
$5
MI
Jason Kipnis
$24
$15
9
$17
OF
Carl Crawford
$6
$23
-17
$23
OF
Josh Hamilton
$33
$24
9
$25
OF
Jacoby Ellsbury
$11
$35
-24
$36
OF
Howie Kendrick
$19
$22
-3
$123
OF
Colby Rasmus
$13
$12
1
$14
DH
Vernon Wells
$6
$8
=2
$12
P
Dan Haren
$14
$25
-11
$25
P
Luke Hochevar
$3
$6
-3
$7
P
Phil Humber
-$2
$5
-7
$4
P
Derek Lowe
-$2
$1
-3
$1
P
Jonathan Broxton
$10
$1
9
$3
P
Jake Arrieta
$1
$1
0
$0
P
Glen Perkins
$16
$1
15
$2
P
Joel Peralta
$11
$1
10
$1
P
Greg Holland
$15
$1
14
$3
Total
$248
$259
-11
$284


Just like in Tout Wars, I didn't have a predetermined strategy that dictated spending a certain amount of money on pitching or hitting. I just went with my value proposition as I always do and let the chips fall where they may. The result was a hitting heavy squad where I spent $217 on offense to a paltry $42 on pitching.

Once I got to the point in the auction where it was clear I wasn't going to be buying a balanced squad, I decided to focus on cheap set-up relievers instead of spending $1 on potential starting pitchers. Not much worked out for me in this auction, but this strategy most certainly did. While Peralta didn't wind up closing, he produced excellent value for $1. The Broxton/Holland handcuff turned into gold after Joakim Soria got hurt (this auction was in February) and Perkins also got a fair share of saves after Matt Capps' injury. Spending four dollars on four relievers and finishing fourth (nine points) in saves was a coup.

In theory, the goal was to purchase at auction 80-85 points combined on offense and pitching. Spending $218 on offense was hopefully going to be good for a minimum of 50 points, with the hope that I might be able to clean up and do even better than that. If I could get 55-60 points on offense, a 20-25 point pitching performance (including the saves) would probably get the job done. If any of the starting pitchers behind Haren could earn in double digits, this would have been pretty easy to accomplish.

Unfortunately, Haren was a problem and right off the bat I struggled in the pitching categories. Humber and Hochevar both got off to decent starts but both slumped (that's putting it politely with Humber) and I was never able to dig out of the ERA/WHIP hole. As I continued trying to find a miracle in the free agent pool it only got worse.

In the early going it looked like the hitting might save my bacon. Hamilton, Konerko, and Kipnis all got off to terrific starts and looked like they might offset the bad injury news on Crawford and the Opening Day demotion of Chisenhall. Ellsbury was injured early and - more than Crawford or Chisenhall - that was the blow that essentially destroyed my chances. No hitter lost more in the A.L. relative to his salary, and I was left trying to play catch up on both sides of the ledger all season long.

Not many of my free agent pick-ups helped either. Will Middlebrooks was good for a while before he got hurt. DeWayne Wise and Hisashi Iwakuma were two guys I picked up and dropped long before their decent second halves. What killed me was blowing a big chunk of FAAB on Roy Oswalt, thinking that he'd jump start my pitching staff. Oswalt was terrible before the Rangers buried him in the bullpen.

Trades are always difficult to make in CBS and this year was no exception. I made a few efforts early to try to swap hitting for pitching but to no avail. Once Hamilton, Konerko and Kipnis all came down to Earth I didn't even have enough of a hitting excess to do that. I was strong in steals, but wasn't able to parlay this into a deal either.

I finished "only" 17 1/2 points out but way back: in ninth place. For the last couple of years, CBS has had a tight clump of teams at the top of the pack and this year was no exception. Better health on offense might have improved my overall performance but in the end my pitching destroyed me. I wasn't even able to find inning eating replacements in the shallow free agent pool so in the end I sunk not only in ERA but wins and strikeouts as well. The 20 points I had in pitching wouldn't have been enough even if I had swept all of the hitting points.

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