Tom Kephart (Baseball HQ) won the bidding for Alex Rios -- the first player nominated -- then seemed to disappear before winning 8 more players among the 18 nominated 79th through 96th. Can you offer any insight into his approach?I don't know Tom (he seems nice enough from the brief on-line chats we had during the auction), but I suspect that like me he had a reasonable list of bids, thought that the prices on the first 78 players were unreasonable, and waited until things flattened out to make his move.
Round by Round Salary vs. Value:
CBS Sportsline A.L. 2008
Since there are 12 teams in Sportsline, each round consists of 12 players. You can make the argument that Kephart should have started buying players in Round 6, but generally speaking he was wise to let players slip past in the first five rounds. $180 in losses are accrued according to my bid limits, or an unbelievable $3 per player. This doesn't even take into account the anomaly of players 1-5 all going for par with the exception of Frank Francisco - who went $1 below my bid limit. From the 6th player called out to the 60th, the average player here lost $3.30.
I imagine some owners get nervous by this point about not spending their money if they sit for too long without buying a player, but I've always said that the bargains will come if you're patient. And the bargains did come for Kephart - although he did float around at par for awhile from players 79-90. Jacobs was the first big bargain on my sheet, going for $4 below my par price.
It's entirely possible, of course, that Kephart had different prices on his sheet than I had on mine...in which case, he thought he was snagging some bargains.
The larger point, though, is that Tom and I had similar approaches. I wasn't going to overspend early just because players were overpriced early. I didn't wait as long as Tom, but that's because some of the guys that fell in to me fell in at prices that I liked.
I also imagine I had some pitchers at higher prices on my sheet than Tom had on his. He spent $55 on his pitching staff. I like his Greinke/Baker combo at $32, but after that there's a lot of upside but also a lot of risk. He needs two of his low end starters and one of his relievers to pan out to win.
But like many of my readers, I like Tom's auction a lot. He kept his wits, didn't deviate from his prices (I don't think), and came out with a competitive team according to the Patton projections. I tend to agree, and think that he'll be in the fight for this league come September.