Sunday, February 24, 2008

5x5 vs. 4x4 Valuation Differences (Hitters)

Continuing with yesterday's theme, I'll look at 4x4 vs. 5x5 variance amongst hitters.

In the closed auction universe, if you're adding $84 to the pitchers you're obviously taking $84 away from the hitters, despite the fact that you're adding a quantitative category to both sides. Since the hitters already had three quantitative categories in 4x4, the impact on their dollar values is less, so they take the pay cut. Again, for a more definitive treatment behind the theory, read my earlier piece or surf over to Ask Rotoman.com to read the master's seminal works on these issues.

You would expect hitters at the top of the food chain to take the biggest hit.

Best 10 Hitters in 2007: 5x5
Hitter
HR$
RBI$
SB$
R$
BA$
'07 $
Hanley Ramirez
$7
$6
$16
$8
$10
$46
Alex Rodriguez
$12
$11$8
$9
$5
$45
David Wright
$7
$8$10$8
$8
$41
Matt Holliday
$8
$10$3$8
$11
$41
Jose Reyes
$2
$4$24
$8
$1
$40
Jimmy Rollins
$7
$7$13
$9
$4
$40
Ichiro Suzuki
$1
$5$12
$7
$12
$38
Magglio Ordonez
$6
$10$1
$8
$13
$37
Carl Crawford
$2
$6$17
$6
$5
$36
Eric Byrnes
$5
$6$15
$7
$2
$35

Best 10 Hitters in 2007: 4x4

Hitter
HR$
RBI$
SB$
R$
BA$
'07 $
Alex Rodriguez
$21
$16
$10

$7
$53
Hanley Ramirez$11
$9$21

$11
$51
David Wright
$11
$12$14
$9
$46
Matt Holliday
$13
$15$5
$12
$45
Jose Reyes
$5
$6$32

$1
$44
Jimmy Rollins
$11
$10$17

$4
$43
Magglio Ordonez
$11
$14$2

$16
$42
Carl Crawford$4
$8$21

$7
$40
Ichiro Suzuki$2
$7$15

$15
$40
Eric Byrnes
$8
$9$20

$2
$39

There's zero variability on who these 10 hitters are, but there is no doubt that their values all take a hit in 5x5. A-Rod loses $18 in the four categories present in both versions of the game; runs only pump him up another $9 (decimals explain the discrepancy).

Despite the earnings variation between 4x4 and 5x5, the pecking order barely changes. We didn't see this with the pitchers. Low strikeout pitchers tended to move down a few rungs in the rankings while high strikeout guys moved up. I expected runs to have the same effect, but they did not. While a player like Ichiro certainly took less of a hit than everyone else on these two charts, runs don't make as much of a difference for hitters as strikeouts do for pitchers.

My intuition tells me that this is because runs are far more linked to most of the other hitting categories than strikeouts are to the pitching categories. A good batting average increases the likelihood you'll score, as does a stolen base. An RBI typically puts you on base and a home run is directly tied to a run.

On the other side of the diamond, a strikeout pushes down your ERA/WHIP. But it doesn't do this any more than a grounder to shortstop does. And wins are still partially out of the pitcher's control in 5x5; the team behind the pitcher has to get him enough runs to win.

So you might want to pay a little more in 5x5 for high BA/high SB guys like Ichiro and Chone Figgins. But not too much more. The differences between the 4x4 and the 5x5 universes are a not as significant on the hitting side. In general, your goal in 5x5 is to get 14 players who are in the line-up everyday. A pinch running or pinch hitting specialist who steals 15 bases or hits 10 home runs is now going to hurt you not just in RBI but in runs as well.

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