5x5 vs. 4x4: Valuation Differences (Pitchers)

LFH-Zeke asks:

At the end of your article, you stated that 33 ML pitchers lost $10 in 4x4 but only 2 ML pitchers lost $10 in 5x5. Would you mind expanding on that a little? Our league changed to the 5x5 format this winter from 20 years in the 4x4 format and I'm interested in finding trends that are going to be new to me in valuing players.

To start with, I'll once again post this link on the theory behind Alex Patton's 4x4 versus his 5x5 pricing.

From an earnings standpoint, adding strikeouts or innings pitched as a category pushes the overall value of pitchers up, but not as much as you might think. The average 12-team league in 4x4 sees its auctioned pitchers earn $936, or $78 per team. In 5x5, this amount gets pushed up $84 across an entire league to $1020. Eighty-four dollars sounds like a lot, but that only pushes the average earnings per team to $85.

The earnings get flatter at the top and at the bottom of the scale because there is one more quantitative category. A horrible ERA/WHIP pitcher will still obviously kill you, but not as much as he does in 4x4.

Worst 10 Pitchers in 2007: 5x5

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
Mike Maroth	$3	$0	($8)	($9)	$2	($12)
John VanBenschoten	$0	$0	($6)	($5)	$1	($11)
Phil Dumatrait	$0	$0	($5)	($4)	$0	($9)
Horacio Ramirez	$4	$0	($7)	($7)	$2	($9)
Scott Elarton	$1	$0	($6)	($4)	$1	($8)
Ryan Feierabend	$1	$0	($5)	($5)	$1	($8)
Edwin Jackson	$2	$0	($6)	($9)	$5	($7)
Casey Fossum	$2	$0	($7)	($5)	$2	($7)
Jae Seo	$2	$0	($5)	($5)	$1	($7)
Levale Speigner	$1	$0	($5)	($4)	$1	($7)

Worst 10 Pitchers in 2007: 4x4

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
Mike Maroth	$4	$0	($13)	($13)		($22)
Edwin Jackson	$4	$0	($10)	($13)		($19)
Scott Olsen	$9	$0	($11)	($15)		($18)
John VanBenschoten	$0	$0	($10)	($7)		($17)
Horacio Ramirez	$7	$0	($12)	($10)		($15)
Phil Dumatrait	$0	$0	($9)	($6)		($15)
Adam Eaton	$9	$0	($14)	($9)		($14)
Casey Fossum	$4	$0	($11)	($7)		($14)
Ryan Feierabend	$1	$0	($8)	($7)		($14)
Robinson Tejeda	$4	$0	($9)	($9)		($14)

In 5x5, you are slightly protected from a bad outing by strikeouts. If Tejeda gave up six runs in five innings and didn't get the win, you unequivocally lose ground in 4x4. If he puts up the same outing in 5x5 but strikes out six batters, you slip in two categories, remain neutral in another, but gain in one. Overall, Tejeda still hurts you in 5x5 (he lost $7 in 2007), and you don't want to own him all year. But he isn't the season-ender he would be in 4x4.

What does this flattening of the earning curve do to the top starting pitchers?

Best 10 Starting Pitchers in 2007: 5x5

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
Jake Peavy	$10	$0	$9	$9	$9	$37
C.C. Sabathia	$9	$0	$6	$7	$9	$31
Johan Santana	$7	$0	$5	$8	$10	$30
Brandon Webb	$9	$0	$7	$5	$8	$29
Josh Beckett	$10	$0	$5	$6	$8	$29
John Lackey	$9	$0	$7	$4	$7	$28
Erik Bedard	$6	$0	$5	$7	$9	$27
Aaron Harang	$8	$0	$3	$7	$9	$27
Dan Haren	$7	$0	$7	$4	$8	$26
John Smoltz	$7	$0	$6	$5	$8	$26

Best 10 Starting Pitchers in 2007: 4x4

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
Jake Peavy	$17	$0	$14	$12		$43
C.C. Sabathia	$17	$0	$9	$10		$36
Josh Beckett	$17	$0	$8	$9		$33
John Lackey	$17	$0	$11	$6		$33
Brandon Webb	$16	$0	$10	$7		$33
Johan Santana	$13	$0	$8	$12		$33
Fausto Carmona	$17	$0	$10	$6		$32
Dan Haren	$13	$0	$10	$6		$29
Erik Bedard	$11	$0	$10	$8		$29
John Smoltz	$12	$0	$9	$7		$27

Adding strikeouts as a category drives everyone's earnings down, though not as much as you might think.

Since adding a category makes each category worth less, the converse also applies. Santana's wins, ERA and WHIP are all worth more in 4x4, since his strikeouts are worthless in that format. You're not simply handing money to Santana in 5x5 for his whiffs; you're also taking some of that money away from him in the other three categories where he contributes.

If the worst pitchers are losing significantly less but the best pitchers aren't earning that much more, where are the biggest pay cuts coming from?

Best 10 Relievers in 2007: 5x5

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
J.J. Putz	$3	$12	$6	$7	$3	$30
Takashi Saito	$1	$11	$5	$6	$3	$27
Joe Nathan	$2	$11	$5	$4	$3	$24
Jon Papelbon	$1	$11	$4	$5	$3	$24
Bobby Jenks	$2	$12	$3	$5	$2	$23
Jose Valverde	$1	$14	$3	$2	$3	$22
Francisco Rodriguez	$2	$12	$3	$1	$4	$21
Francisco Cordero	$0	$13	$2	$2	$3	$21
Trevor Hoffman	$2	$12	$2	$2	$2	$20
Rafael Betancourt	$2	$1	$6	$7	$3	$20

Best 10 Relievers in 2007: 4x4

Pitcher	W$	Sv$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	'07 $
J.J. Putz	$5	$25	$9	$10		$49
Takashi Saito	$2	$24	$8	$9		$42
Joe Nathan	$4	$23	$7	$5		$39
Bobby Jenks	$3	$25	$4	$7		$39
Jose Valverde	$1	$29	$4	$3		$37
Jon Papelbon	$1	$23	$6	$8		$37
Trevor Hoffman	$4	$26	$3	$3		$35
Francisco Rodriguez	$4	$25	$4	$2		$35
Francisco Cordero	$0	$27	$3	$3		$34
Jason Isringhausen	$4	$20	$5	$4		$32

Except for Betancourt, the changes on the list are marginal. But the price jumps sure aren't.

Since 5x5 is all about accumulation, these guys lose ground in all of the non-strikeout categories, and adding whiffs isn't enough to make a difference; even K-Rod's impressive total of 90 are only good for $4 in Patton earnings.

Nothing has changed in the saves category, obviously. But adding strikeouts has made each save less valuable, since some of the pitching money has to shift to strikeouts. Since closers don't get enough innings to compete with starting pitchers in this category, their value drops and drops and drops.

(Eagle eyes will have noticed that Rafael Betancourt earned as much in ERA/WHIP as C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana. This is most definitely worth comment, but probably best handled in a separate post.)

What about the big picture?

Top 100 5x5 Pitchers MLB vs. 4x4

Rank	5x5 AVG	4x4 AVG	+/- Total
1-10	$29	$32	-33
11-20	$23	$26	-25
21-30	$19	$19	-3
31-40	$16	$15	+7
41-50	$14	$14	-1
51-60	$11	$10	+5
61-70	$9	$8	+15
71-80	$7	$5	+18
81-90	$6	$3	+26
91-100	$4	$2	+18

These are the Top 100 Major League starting pitchers in 2007, clustered in groups of 10. The second column is the average earnings of each cluster of pitchers in 5x5, the third column the same average for the same 10 pitchers in 4x4, and the final column the total differential between the two formats.

The effect of 5x5 is to make more starting pitchers worth owning over the course of the season. The pitchers at the bottom of the heap earn more and come a little closer to the earnings of the top starters, so you can carry six starters all year long, take your lumps in ERA, and still come out fighting in two categories as opposed to just riding the wins train. Pitchers like Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir offer so much help in strikeouts that they actually earn more in 5x5, while pitchers like Paul Byrd and Jarrod Washburn actually don't hurt you as much as you might think, since their ERA/WHIP damage is reduced due to the additional category.

I don't want to leave this discussion giving the impression that ERA/WHIP should be completely ignored in 5x5. You still want good ERA/WHIP pitchers. You can't build a cheap staff around the Paul Byrds and Jarrod Washburns of the world and expect to win. Poor ERA pitchers tend to lose games, and pitchers who are bad enough to get knocked out in the third or fourth inning on a consistent basis aren't going to post too many strikeouts. Most importantly, dumping ERA/WHIP puts you in the hole in two categories and - as players of both formats know all too well - these categories are often linked together.

But you can look for accumulators who will stay in the rotation all year, put up mediocre or even slightly below average rate stats and still stay competitive. 5x5 encourages owning starters who are riskier in 4x4. You'll want to add a couple of bucks to your bids to those guys at the bottom who you normally wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole in 4x4, especially if their track records indicate that they'll stay in the rotation all year long.

I'll look at the impact of 5x5 on hitters in my next post.