Monday, December 12, 2011

2011 N.L. Third Basemen

If you spent significant money on a third baseman last year, chances are excellent that you got burned.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Third Basemen, 2011
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2010
1
$17
34
-17
37
32
34
33
$31
2
$15
31
-16
34
30
30
31
$26
3
$23
23
0
22
23
23
21
$14
4
$0
23
-22
29
20
19
18
$12
5
$28
21
7
22
18
24
24
$15
6
$8
20
-12
18
19
24
22
$23
7
$15
15
0
14
15
16
16
$19
8
($1)
15
-16
14
15
15
14
$14
9
$8
14
-7
16
14
13
12
$15
10
$2
14
-12
12
15
15
10
$16

Average
$12
21
-10
22
20
21
20
$19

A double-digit loss at a position is practically unheard of, though it happened this year in the A.L. at first base as well. Over there, the 10 most expensive third basemen returned 61 cents on the dollar. Here, the return was only 57 cents on the dollar (12/21), with only five 3B earning in single digits.

Last year's most expensive group lost almost as much money per player as well. There was one huge difference, though: almost every player on last year's list at least had the common decency to crack double digits in earnings.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Third Basemen 2010

#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
PK
ZIPS
2009
1
David Wright
$31
$35
-4
$34
$36
$28
2
Pablo Sandoval
$14
$32
-18
$29
$29
$29
3
Ryan Zimmerman
$26
$32
-5
$28
$26
$29
4
$15
$30
-15
$24
$25
$33
5
Aramis Ramirez
$15
$25
-10
$27
$22
$17
6
$10
$18
-8
$17
$16
$21
7
$11
$15
-4
$13
$17
$17
8
-$0
$14
-14
$13
$16
$15
9
$12
$12
-1
$12
$16
$19
10
$11
$12
-1
$4
$11
-$0

Average
$15
$23
-8
$20
$21
$21

Reynolds left for the Junior Circuit, but most of the hitters here were still in the N.L. But the 10 costliest still shifted dramatically, thanks primarily to what most thought was going to be a robust change in the guard.

We can see now that it didn't work out that way. Established vets Wright and Zimmerman were pretty big busts, but Alvarez, McGehee and Stewart - 3B who the market thought would either emerge or maintain - fell flat on their faces as well. Ramirez was the only one to turn a profit, but if you broke even with Headley or Sandoval, you probably felt pretty damn lucky in context.

Of course CBS, which is almost always out in front in these most expensive groupings, wasn't as aggressive here. They outspent everyone on Wright, Zimmerman, Alvarez and Johnson, though, so they didn't get any of the happier returns. Tout Wars - the next most aggressive pricer - only got McGehee outright but tied LABR on Sandoval, Stewart and Uribe and Rotoman on Ramirez and Headley. The ties suggest Stage Three bedlam, but the price paid for Alvarez by CBS says anything but.

It turns out there was a new guard, just not the one that the market anticipated

Top 10 N.L. Third Basemen, 2011
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2010
1
Aramis Ramirez
$28
21
7
22
18
24
24
$15
2
Pablo Sandoval
$23
23
0
22
23
23
21
$14
3
Chipper Jones
$18
8
10
7
5
12
9
$11
4
David Wright
$17
34
-17
37
32
34
33
$31
5
Ryan Zimmerman
$15
31
-16
34
30
30
31
$26
6
Chase Headley
$15
15
0
14
15
16
16
$19
7
$14
11
3
11
9
14
12
$8
8
$14







9
$12
11
1
8
13
11
12
$17
10
$11






$1

Average
$17
19
-3
16
15
16
16
$14

Chipper makes a surprising (to the market, at least) bounce back, but the rest of this list contains either mild surprises (Freese, Polanco) or free agent that everyone took a pass on (Dobbs, Guzman). Tout Wars wins big here on the new names, getting both Jones and Freese.

Outside of Freese, though, this isn't a group that would give me confidence in the position heading into 2012. Guzman will be 1B-eligible this year, and Dobbs is filler that happened to crack double-digits, not someone you can count on to do it again. If you can spend money on two 1B this year, you probably should; failing that, try to get at least one cheap 1B/3B in the endgame.

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