Entering 2011, anecdotal evidence suggested that Rotisserie owners were extremely excited about the first base pool.
This is a case where data backs up an idea nicely.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen, 2011
Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 | |
1 | Miguel Cabrera | $36 | 39 | -4 | 48 | 35 | 35 | 38 | $38 |
2 | Adrian Gonzalez | $36 | 36 | -1 | 42 | 34 | 33 | 36 | $27 |
3 | Mark Teixeira | $24 | 35 | -11 | 38 | 36 | 30 | 31 | $25 |
4 | Kevin Youkilis | $16 | 32 | -17 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 30 | $21 |
5 | Adam Dunn | -$2 | 31 | -33 | 34 | 28 | 30 | 24 | $24 |
6 | Paul Konerko | $26 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 23 | 23 | 23 | $32 |
7 | Billy Butler | $22 | 24 | -2 | 27 | 22 | 23 | 25 | $23 |
8 | Kendry Morales | 22 | -22 | 30 | 18 | 17 | 20 | $9 | |
9 | Justin Morneau | $2 | 21 | -18 | 26 | 16 | 20 | 20 | $19 |
10 | Derrek Lee | $8 | 17 | -9 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 16 | $17 |
Average | $17 | 28 | -12 | 33 | 26 | 26 | 26 | $24 |
The combination of sexy N.L. imports and players on the same Major League team with dual 1B positional eligibility made this the most expensive group of A.L. 1B since I began tracking these data in 2008.
It also happened to be the lousiest group of 1B since that time as well.
The "winners" here were the guys who broke even or simply lost a little money. Losing $4 on a player isn't appealing, but nabbing $36 worth of stats for $39 (decimals) like the market did with Cabrera is huge...particularly when some of the alternatives were Dunn and Morales.
CBS is off the charts here, paying $33 on average for 10 hitters that earned $24 in 2010. In a four-way battle with LABR, Tout and Rotoman (PK), CBS would buy every hitter. It could be argued that if CBS stopped with Cabrera and Gonzalez that a stars approach here was the right approach, but if their tactic was simply to overpay for every hitter then this isn't a matter of a tactic but more a case of overspending across the board.
You definitely didn't want one of the four big busts on this chart. If you bought Dunn, Morales, Morneau or Youkilis you were probably fighting an uphill battle in your league last year.
As strong as the position appeared to be at the top, it looked quite weak at the bottom. But it was the guys at the bottom who saved our collective bacon.
Top 10 A.L. First Basemen, 2011
Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | Miguel Cabrera | $36 | 39 | -4 | 48 | 35 | 35 | 38 | $38 |
2 | Adrian Gonzalez | $36 | 36 | -1 | 42 | 34 | 33 | 36 | $27 |
3 | Paul Konerko | $26 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 23 | 23 | 23 | $32 |
4 | Mark Teixeira | $24 | 35 | -11 | 38 | 36 | 30 | 31 | $25 |
5 | Eric Hosmer | $23 | 1 | 21 | 4 | R2 | |||
6 | Billy Butler | $22 | 24 | -2 | 27 | 22 | 23 | 25 | $23 |
7 | Michael Cuddyer | $21 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | $20 |
8 | Mark Trumbo | $20 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 3 | $0 | |
9 | Kevin Youkilis | $16 | 33 | -17 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 30 | $21 |
10 | Casey Kotchman | $15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | R3 | $4 | |
Average | $24 | $21 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 20 | 20 | $19 |
Hosmer, Kotchman and Trumbo all rise up from the crapshoot (players bought for $3 or less) to earn $15 or more in 2011.
Even with these complete surprises, this group of hitters barely turns a profit. That's what happens when you spend so big on the top guys that you're settling for break even as a best-case scenario. Cabrera and Gonzalez were fantastic in real life. In Roto, you're going to be hard pressed to earn more than $35 if you don't run.
What jumps out at me in these first two charts is what's missing; there isn't a single first baseman that was paid between $3-16 to be seen here.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen 2011
Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
11 | $21 | 17 | +5 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | $20 | |
12 | $8 | 13 | -5 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 10 | $6 | |
13 | $1 | 12 | -11 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | $16 | |
14 | $13 | 11 | +2 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 12 | $6 | |
15 | Kila Ka’aihue | $0 | 10 | -10 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 11 | $4 |
16 | $8 | 10 | -1 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | $5 | |
17 | $5 | 2 | +3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | $0 | |
18 | $20 | 2 | +19 | 1 | 4 | 3 | $0 | ||
19 | $23 | $1 | +21 | 4 | R2 | ||||
20 | $15 | $1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | R3 | $4 | ||
Average | 11 | 8 | +4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | $6 |
As exciting as the names at the top were, the names here at the bottom were flat out ugly. Aside from Barton, every first baseman below Cuddyer was a big, fat risk entering 2011. Hosmer, Kotchman and Trumbo working out wasn't necessarily validation for not spending big bucks on the big names.
This is exactly what happened to me in CBS. I didn't like any of the prices for any of the big names left on the board so was left out in the cold at the end of the auction. I thought briefly about saying "Eric Hosmer - $1" but with Dustin Ackley already in tow didn't want to take too many risks on too many rookies who might or might not see the Majors in 2011. I gulped and called out Casey Kotchman at $1.
It worked out, but I sure didn't feel good about it at the time. It's easy to look back at the crapshoot players and shout "Yay, it worked!" or "Damn, I'm a genius!" but the reality is there's usually a reason you're getting this player for $1 (hint: in a competitive league, it's not your savvy auctioning skills). Looking at what happened to the $10-13 hitters, you were generally better off last year spending big at first base. You might not feel this way if you bought Dunn, but even if you got Youkilis or Teixeira you at least got some stats back for your trouble.
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